Arizona Preview
We can all probably agree that Saturday's Territorial Cup game in Tempe will be nowhere close to a lopsided 70-7 score as it was last year. But when previewing both Grand Canyon State teams does the same gulf in talent still exist leading to the Sun Devils earning a rare five-win streak over the Wildcats?
Arizona Offense
The mission to find a stable starting quarterback has, quite literally, been a quest filled with bumps and bruises for the Wildcats as they’ve shuffled through three different starters, with two having been shelved with season-ending injuries.
Gunner Cruz was the season-opening starter and was QB1 for games one, two, and six, with Will Plummer starting game three and Jordan McCloud starting games four and five.
With Cruz and McCloud both sidelined for the year by the midseason mark, Plummer has started the past five games for Arizona.
On the year, Plummer has completed 55.5% of his passes with 1,264 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has the ability to run as well, with 175 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. As a starter this year, Plummer averages 179.2 passing yards per game.
His best performance of the year came against USC when he threw for 264 yards and had 31 net rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. He also had 223 passing yards with a touchdown and 50 yards with a score against Utah.
Though not done in as dramatic fashion and not done due to injuries, similar to the quarterback position, the Wildcat running backs have been shuffled in their use this season as they have three runners who average no more than about seven or eight carries per game. Also, there hasn’t been a true “starting” running back for the Wildcats as four different players have earned starts through the 11 games, with no one player having more than four to his credit this year.
The results, quite frankly, have not been very effective, as only four teams in the nation have fewer total rushing touchdowns than Arizona’s six – with only three coming from the Wildcat running backs.
In the last four games, no player has had more than 12 carries, and in the last two, only quarterback Will Plummer, who had 10 against Utah, has reached double-digits in carries.
Former Northwestern transfer and Chandler High graduate Drake Jackson leads the team with 359 rushing yards on 81 carries with a touchdown, adding 16 receptions for 91 yards.
Anderson, the son of former Arizona Cardinals running back Damian Anderson, posted a season-high 92 yards on just eight carries last week against Washington State, including a 71-yard run. He had a good three-game stretch in the first half of the season when he had 72, 67, and 58 rushing yards in consecutive games.
During his time at Northwestern from 2018-20, Anderson rushed 228 times for 926 yards with five touchdowns.
Michael Wiley has a team-high 84 carries and ties for the team lead with two rushing touchdowns and ranks second on the team with 283 rushing yards and is tied for second on the team with 30 receptions for 289 yards and a share of the team-high with three touchdown catches.
Wiley has had ups and downs in 2021 as he has four games with between 37 and 64 rushing yards, but five games with 16 or fewer rushing yards – including each of the past two. Of late, Wiley has been used more in the pass game than as a rusher as he has 12 combined catches in the past two games compared to just eight carries.
Last year, Wiley was responsible for the “7” in “70-7” as he had Arizona’s lone score of the day against ASU, a 20-yard touchdown run.
Jalen John adds 248 yards on 59 carries in eight games, while Stevie Rocker, Jr. has totaled 150 yards on 30 carries. John also has eight catches for 42 yards, while Rocker has seven receptions for 59 yards.
John had a solid back-to-back stretch in October with 71 rushing yards on 11 carries against Colorado, and then 65 yards on 19 carries the next week against Washington. Rocker showed flashes of high-level play against Washington when he gained 87 yards on just eight carries, including a 52-yard run.
An interesting point of note is that Rocker is listed as the starter on this week’s depth chart but has only one start so far this season. Based on the season to date, it is plausible that the “starting” position is a bit of a formality, and the carries will be spread among the group.
The clear receiving leader for Arizona is Stanley Berryhill III, whose 73 receptions and 640 yards both are more than double the amounts tallied by the second-place receiver for the Wildcats, though his 8.9-yards per catch average is a little perplexing.
Berryhill has had at least four catches in every game, at least five in 10 of 11 games, and has two double-digit efforts with 12 catches in the season opener against BYU and 11 receptions against NAU. However, from a “big play” perspective, he has been limited as he has just one touchdown and has averaged under 10 yards per reception in eight of 11 games, including odd stat lines such as six catches for 20 yards against Washington and seven catches for 59 yards against UCLA.
At this moment, there are 41 FBS wide receivers with at least 60 catches on the year. Of those 41, Berryhill has the lowest yards-per-catch average and is one of only four to average under 10 yards-per-catch.
Behind Berryhill, B.J. Casteel is next up with 30 catches for 275 yards and a touchdown. Across the first eight games of the season, Casteel had at least four catches six times but only has one total catch across the last three games.
Casteel, however, is listed as the backup at his wide receiver position on this week’s depth chart, with true freshman Anthony Simpson, who has just three catches for 33 yards in five games this year, slotted as the starter.
Other than Berryhill and Casteel, no Wildcat wide receivers have topped 20 receptions for the season as Tayvian Cunningham has 18 catches for 299 yards and two touchdowns, Boobie Curry has 17 receptions for 179 yards and a share of the team-high of three touchdowns.
Cunningham started off hot with nine receptions for 140 yards across the first two games of the season, but with the exception of a three-catch, 116-yard outburst against USC, he only has one reception in the past seven games of the year.
Similarly, Curry had 13 receptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns across a three-game span in September and early October but only has four total catches across the past six games.
A player to watch who has come on of late is true freshman Dorian Singer, who hadn’t made an appearance until the eighth game of the season but in just four games played, has caught at least three passes each time and has 16 receptions for 221 yards.
At tight end, Alex Lines has ten catches for 138 yards, and veteran Bryce Wolma, who has the third-most career starts on the Wildcat roster (29), has six receptions for 42 yards with a touchdown.
The Wildcat offensive line figures to start Jordan Morgan at tackle and Donovan Laie at guard on the left side, Paiton Fears at tackle, and Josh Baker on the right side with Josh McCauley at center.
Fears and McCauley are the only two to have started all 11 games this year. Morgan has started the last 10 of the season, Laie has eight starts, and Baker has started five. Laie (39 career starts) and McCauley (38) are the most experienced players on the team in terms of career starts. Laie did not play last week against Washington State but is listed as a starter on this week’s depth chart.
Arizona Offense Summary
From the perspective of points on the board, Arizona has sputtered, to say the very least, as the Wildcats have scored under 20 points in nine of 11 games this season and rank dead last in the conference and 123rd of 130 FBS teams with a scoring average of 17.4 points per game.
There are several other statistical categories in which Arizona is among the nation’s absolute poorest – this is why they’re 1-10, folks – as the Wildcats are tied for 118th in the nation with 21 lost turnovers and rank 120th nationally in red zone offense (73.5%) and team passing efficiency (109.56), 122nd in third-down offense (32.4%) and tackles for loss allowed per game (7.45), 125th in passing yards per completion (9.90), tied for 126th in rushing touchdowns (six) and dead last – 130th of 130 – for the most team interceptions thrown with 17. As can be expected, Arizona ranks last in the Pac-12 in all of these categories.
Arizona has not had a single 100-yard rusher in any game this season, though Anderson last week came the closest with 92 yards on eight carries, largely boosted by a 71-yard run. Prior to that, only once did a Wildcat rusher eclipse 80 yards in a game this year.
Only twice this season has Arizona had a 100-yard receiver, and they have also only had three times which an individual quarterback has thrown for at least 225 yards as Gunner Cruz had 336 against BYU, Jordan McCloud had 233 against Oregon, and Will Plummer had 264 against USC.
On an individual scale, Plummer likely will attempt in the ballpark of 25-30 passes – with probably about one-third of them going to Berryhill – while Plummer also carry the ball 10-12 times to try to create an impact with his feet.
If the past few weeks are any indication, Arizona likely will use three running backs or so, with each getting in the area of six to eight carries a piece while also being targeted a few times in the pass game.
Arizona Defense
Along the defensive line, Jalen Harris has started all 11 games at defensive end, and Trevon Mason has started 10 of 11 at defensive tackle. Kyon Barrs has started seven games at nose, while Mo Diallo has six starts at “Anchor.” This foursome is listed as the starting group for Saturday’s game.
Barrs has registered team-highs in tackles-for-loss (8.0) and sacks (5.0) and has 31 total tackles on the year. He is tied for sixth in the Pac-12 in sacks and tied for ninth in TFLs.
Harris leads the defensive linemen with 44 tackles, including 5.5 for loss with 3.5 sacks, while Mason has 42 tackles, including 7.5 for loss with 2.5 sacks. Both Harris and Mason have been disruptive against pass attempts, as each has four pass breakups on the year.
Defensive leader Anthony Pandy has started all 11 games at Will linebacker but is listed as the first-string Mike linebacker for this week due to injury issues elsewhere at linebacker. Jerry Roberts has started the past six games at Mike linebacker but is not listed on this week’s depth chart after suffering an injury last week against Washington State.
Kenny Hebert (Sam) and Malik Reed (Will) are listed as first-team linebackers for this week’s game, with Reed poised to make his first start of the year. Hebert has appeared in all 11 games and has 17 tackles, including 4.0 for loss with 1.0 sack and an interception, including eight tackles and a sack last week versus Washington State. He appeared in 31 games for Vanderbilt from 2018-20 before transferring to Arizona.
Reed has played in seven games this year but has not recorded any defensive statistics. He transferred to Arizona from Wisconsin but did not see any action in his one season with the Badgers.
Christian Young has started all 11 games at the “Viper” position and left last week’s game in the third quarter but is still listed as a starter on this week’s depth chart. He ranks second on the team this year with 63 tackles, including two for loss with four pass breakups.
Roland-Wallace has started all 11 games this season, while Notre Dame transfer Isaiah Rutherford started seven of the first eight at cornerback, but Stukes has started the last three and four total and is listed as the starter opposite Roland-Wallace this week.
Stukes has 25 tackles and also has six pass breakups on the year – the exact same amount as both Chase Lucas and Jack Jones for ASU.
Jaydin Young has started seven games at safety, while Jaxen Turner has ten starts this season at “Rover.” Safety Gunner Maldonado started five of the team’s first six games as well.
On the year, Turner has 57 tackles, including 4.0 for loss with five pass breakups, Young has 42 tackles with four pass breakups, and Maldonado has 31 tackles with one interception.
Arizona Defense Summary
Different from the ASU defense, the Wildcats have quite a bit of youth as only four players have 20 or more career starts, and only seven have 12 or more. On this week’s depth chart, three freshmen and three sophomores are listed as starters on defense.
Also, though it may not have a tremendous impact this Saturday because he is still slated to coach against ASU, defensive coordinator Don Brown has been hired as the new head coach for Massachusetts and will depart from the Arizona program after this final game.
In the past two games, Arizona has allowed 397 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground along with 553 passing yards and six touchdowns throws with no interceptions. On the year, the Wildcats have allowed seven total 100-yard rushing efforts, including two by UCLA in the same game. Arizona has also given up five 100-yard receiving performances, with a multitude of big pass plays as three of those five century marks were hit with just either three or four catches. Last week against Washington State, Arizona yielded both a 100-yard receiver and a 100-yard rusher.
The Wildcat pass defense is a bit of a conundrum as Arizona ranks third in the Pac-12 and 25th nationally by allowing just 199.5 passing yards per game, but its team pass efficiency defense is 114th nationally, and the team’s four total interceptions are dead last in the league and 121st nationally. They also rank worse than 100th in the nation, with 23 touchdown passes allowed.
Other areas of significant deficiency are Arizona’s red zone defense, which allows scores 97.1% of the time, making it the worst standing for the category in the Pac-12 and next-to-last in the nation, as well as the nightmarish turnover situation for the Wildcats, as Arizona ranks 128th of 130 teams with just six turnovers gained and dead last in the nation in turnover margin at minus-15.
A few areas that are less bad, however, are that Arizona is tied for fourth in the Pac-12 with 21 sacks – the same amount registered by ASU, mainly due to the multi-game sacks drought – while Arizona ranks 52nd nationally in third-down defense (37.4%) and seventh in the Pac-12 in total defense (377.8).
The key individual performers are the seasoned Pandy, a top-10 tackler in the Pac-12, and Barrs, who is a top-10 performer in the league in quarterback sacks and tackles-for-loss. As a unit, the defensive line has performed better than some may know and has the potential to make life more challenging than many would expect for Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White.
Arizona Special Teams
In a rivalry series where field goals, blocked extra points, bad snaps, muffed punts, and punt returns have dictated outcomes, special teams’ units are always taken under the microscope.
Arizona features one of the nation’s better punters as Kyle Ostendorp, as he averages 49.41 yards on 56 punts, placing him atop the Pac-12 and fourth in the nation in punting average.
The Wildcats regularly use two placekickers, typically one for shorter range and one for more distant kicks.
Lucas Havrisik has connected on 9-of-14 kicks on the year, including 4-of-8 from beyond 40 yards with a long kick of 57 yards. Tyler Loop is a perfect 9-for-9 with a long of 42 yards.
In the return game, Berryhill averages 8.63 yards on 16 punt returns and has a long runback of 51 yards. Tayvian Cunningham averages 21.27 yards on 15 kickoff returns, but his status may be up in the air for Saturday. Michael Wiley has returned the second most kickoffs and averages 15.3 yards on four returns.
Overall Summary
The 2021 season hasn’t gone as ASU fans had hoped, and even though expectations were low from the start, it would be hard to believe that Arizona fans expected just one win entering this game.
Though ASU officially can no longer contend for the division title, the 95th installment of this rivalry game remains massively significant for a multitude of reasons – even if that list is topped with items such as pride and bragging rights.
With four straight wins in the series, ASU will try to reach five consecutive victories over Arizona for the first time since the Sun Devils claimed nine straight from 1965-73. At no time before or after that stretch has ASU won five straight, so a win Saturday would allow the Sun Devils to join rare territory among their predecessors in the Sun Devil football program.
Aside from the rivalry intensity and animosity, as the statistics show you – as well as their 1-10 record – there are very, very few, if any, areas in which the Wildcats hold any sort of advantage.
An area that Sun Devil fans likely hold as a significant concern – penalties – have been issues for both teams, and as prominent as the struggles have been for ASU, Arizona is not all that far off in their own right. ASU ranks last in the Pac-12 and 127th nationally, averaging 8.91 penalties per game, but Arizona is right behind them at 11th in the conference and tied for 122nd nationally with 8.36 per game.
In terms of penalty yardage, ASU ranks 11th in the conference (somehow USC averages more) and 127th nationally with 79.45 yards per game of penalty yardage, while Arizona ranks 10th in the Pac-12 and 115th in the nation averaging 67.64 per game.
In this game, the overwhelming factors that likely will dictate the outcome are passion, focus, and execution – or, more importantly, the lack thereof. If ASU, because it cannot win its division, comes out in lethargic fashion that we saw in Tucson during that depleted defeat in 2016, then Arizona has a chance to pull off an upset.
However, there are many reasons that ASU is about a three-touchdown favorite in this game, despite the crippling paranoia that sort of prediction gives Sun Devil fans.
The myriad deficiencies for the Wildcats, on paper, provide numerous advantages ASU can exploit on both offense and defense and hopefully for the Sun Devils, can allow the home team to get back on track a bit in the pass game and in the pass rush – two areas that have been non-existent in the past several games.
So, in the end, Saturday truly very likely boils down to how motivated this Sun Devil team is. If the Sun Devils neither feel like they can sleepwalk to another 70-7 win nor throw in the proverbial towel because they have zero chance at a conference title but rather come out with the peak levels of intensity fans expect in a rivalry game, then ASU should be able to win this contest without too much stress and tension.
Familiar Faces
· ASU assistant coach Bobby Wade played wide receiver for Arizona from 1999-2002. He remains the program’s all-time leader in receiving yards (3,351) and ranks second in career receptions (230).
· Arizona assistant coach Scottie Graham was an Associate Athletic Director at ASU from 2014 until he joined the Wildcat staff in early 2021
· Arizona DB Ammon Allen attended Gilbert (Ariz.) Highland High School, as did ASU DL Tyler Johnson
· Arizona RB Drake Anderson, DB Gunner Maldonado, and LB Malik Reed attended Chandler (Ariz.) High School, as did ASU DB Chase Lucas and DL Matthew Pola Mao. ASU assistant coach Shaun Aguano was the head coach at Chandler High School before joining ASU’s staff.
· Arizona DL Kyon Barrs attended Murrieta (Calif.) Murrieta Mesa High School, as did ASU WR Giovanni Sanders
· Arizona WR Stanley Berryhill III and LS Kameron Hawkins attended Orange (Calif.) Orange Lutheran High School, as did ASU DB RJ Regan and LB Xavier Steele
· Arizona RB Nazar Bombata attended Los Angeles (Calif.) Bishop Alemany High School, as did ASU QB Finn Collins and OL Dohnovan West
· Arizona DL JB Brown attended Long Beach (Calif.) Poly High School, as did ASU DB Jack Jones, DL Jermayne Lole, DB Kejuan Markham, DB Keon Markham, and DB DeAndre Pierce. ASU defensive coordinator Antonio Pierce was the head coach at Poly High School before coming to ASU.
· Arizona WR Jaden Clark and P Kyle Ostendorp attended Phoenix (Ariz.) Desert Vista High School, as did ASU DB Alijah Gammage
· Arizona WR Tristen D’Angelo attended Scottsdale (Ariz.) Community College, as did ASU LS Erik Dickerson
· Arizona OL Josh Donovan attended College Station (Texas) High School, as did ASU DB Timarcus Davis
· Arizona DB Anthony Gonzales attended Scottsdale (Ariz.) Saguaro High School, as did ASU LB Will Shaffer, LB Connor Soelle, DB Kyle Soelle, and DL Corey Stephens
· Arizona DL Jalen Harris attended Mesa (Ariz.) Desert Ridge High School, as did ASU DL D.J. Davidson
· Arizona K Lucas Havrisik attended Norco (Calif.) High School, as did ASU OL Jarrett Bell
· Arizona DB Dalton Johnson attended Katy (Texas) High School, as did ASU DL Michael Matus
· Arizona LB Chandler Kelly attended Chandler (Ariz.) Basha High School, as did ASU OL Roman DeWys
· Arizona OL Josh McCauley attended Mesa (Ariz.) Red Mountain High School, as did ASU RB Deonce Elliott and OL Ben Bray
· Arizona OL Jordan Morgan attended Marana (Ariz.) High School, as did ASU QB Trenton Bourguet
· Arizona DL Alex Navarro-Silva attended Chino (Calif.) Lugo High School, as did ASU OL Eddie Medina. Navarro-Silva also attended Riverside (Calif.) City College, as did ASU WR Giovanni Sanders.
· Arizona LB Anthony Pandy attended Los Angeles (Calif.) Narbonne High School, as did ASU DL Jordan Banks, LB Darien Butler, and DB Macen Williams
· Arizona DB Rhedi Short attended Los Angeles (Calif.) Cathedral High School, as did ASU WR Chad Johnson, Jr.
· Arizona DB Treydan Stukes attended Goodyear (Ariz.) Millennium High School, as did ASU DL Anthonie Cooper
· Arizona DL Nahe Sulunga attended Calabasas (Calif.) High School, as did ASU WR Johnny Wilson
· Arizona DB Isaiah Taylor attended Fort Lauderdale (Fla.) St. Thomas Aquinas High School, as did ASU TE Jake Ray
· Arizona LB Jabar Triplett attended Baton Rouge (La.) Southern University Lab School, as did ASU DL Shannon Forman
· Arizona DB Jaxen Turner attended Moreno Valley (Calif.) Rancho Verde High School, as did ASU WR Bryan Thompson
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