Arizona Preview

The research of all Territorial Cup games played this century will reveal that contrary to popular belief ASU wasn't frequently upset by its rival when the Sun Devils had a better record. Nonetheless, with nothing to play for but pride and with an offense that has posted some impressive numbers this season, no one is expecting the Wildcats to enter Saturday’s night contest with a measure of low confidence. Here’s our extensive analysis of ASU’s next opponent.

Arizona Offense

From ‘Hand Him the Heisman’ to handing the starting job to a true freshman and splitting reps as a senior, the life and times of Khalil Tate at the University of Arizona have been perplexing, to say the least.

As a sophomore in 2017, he took the college football world by storm with his dual-threat abilities and entered his junior season as a popular candidate for high-level honors. Through injuries, schematic differences and other unknown issues, the duality of Tate’s threat levels dropped off considerably in 2018 as he rushed just 74 times for 224 yards compared to the 143 carries for 1,411 yards he had the previous year. Also, Arizona failed to make the postseason in 2018 after an unbelievable fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona State that included a critical interception thrown by Tate in that final period.

Following his junior season, rumors of a transfer possibility came about but ultimately were unwarranted. Unfortunately for Tate, his results as a senior have been the poorest of his career as a starter as he has split reps at quarterback for most of the season.

Since a 404-yard outburst in Arizona’s most recent victory against Colorado on Oct. 5, Tate has just one game with more than 200 passing yards and three with 51 or fewer. His role has diminished considerably the last two weeks, as he did not start either game against Oregon or Utah and had one season-low in passing yards against Oregon (50) before notching a new season-low last week versus Utah (39).

As a rusher, with the exception of a 103-yard game against Stanford on Oct. 26, the surrounding five games have each resulted in 19 or fewer net rush yards including two games with negative net rush yards.

In total, Tate has completed 138-of-228 passes (60.5%) for 1,726 yards with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions, adding 335 rushing yards on 79 carries with three touchdowns.

A four-star recruit and the clear jewel of head coach Kevin Sumlin’s 2019 signing class for Arizona, Grant Gunnell has merged into a consistent game day role along with Tate at quarterback.

Gunnell has appeared in eight games so far with three starts – one in place of an injured Tate against UCLA on Sept. 28 and each of the last two games. Through the duration of Arizona’s current six-game losing streak, Gunnell has seen game time to varying degrees as he has at least seven pass attempts in each game and has 16 or more in three of the six.

As a starter and lone quarterback against UCLA, Gunnell completed 29-of-44 passes for 352 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. In a starting role the past two weeks with Tate also earning reps, Gunnell completed 10-of-14 passes for 82 yards against Oregon and 8-of-16 passes for 96 yards against Utah.

Though Gunnell has received starts in the past two games, Tate is listed in the weekly depth chart as the first-string quarterback; however, it is logical to expect both players to see ample time Saturday in Tempe. Regardless of his role, Saturday marks Tate’s final collegiate game.

One of the most productive running backs at the FBS level last season, J.J. Taylor remains Arizona’s top running back although his rushing total thus far is worse than half of what he accumulated during an excellent 2018 campaign.

Last season, Taylor had five 100-yard games including two with 200 or more rushing yards and five games with at least 20 carries including one with 30 and one with 40 carries. This season, he has just two 100-yard rushing games, only one game with 20 or more carries but five games with 14 or fewer carries.

Altogether in 2019, Taylor has 673 yards on 134 carries with five touchdowns and adds 29 receptions for 270 yards. Last season, he ranked sixth in the nation with 1,434 rushing yards on 255 carries.

Despite the dip in statistical productivity, Taylor has already announced his intentions to bypass his senior season and enter the 2020 NFL Draft, effectively making Saturday’s game against ASU his collegiate finale.

In addition to Taylor, Arizona has a few other rushers that see action just about each game including Gary Brightwell and Nathan Tilford.

On the year, Brightwell has 61 carries for 368 yards with five touchdowns, while Tilford has 37 carries for 228 yards with four scores. Collectively, this duo of reserves averages 6.1 yards per carry on the year.

In the passing game, Arizona has a handful of receivers that see action though none of the group has proven to be a distinct standout as no player on the roster has reached the 40-reception mark, the team leader has barely crossed 400 receiving yards and no athlete has more than three touchdown catches on the year.

Brian Casteel leads the team in receptions (39), ranks third in receiving yards (379) and is in a three-way tie for the team lead with three touchdown receptions. Converted quarterback Jamarye Joiner is the team leader in receiving yards (412), ranks fourth on the team in receptions (27) and also has three touchdown catches.

Tayvian Cunningham ranks second on the team in receptions (33) and fourth in receiving yards (370) with two touchdowns, while Cedric Peterson ranks second on the team in receiving yards (407), fifth in receptions (23) and also has two touchdowns. Peterson also leads the team in yards per catch among players with more than five receptions (17.7). Stanley Berryhill III ties for the team lead with three touchdown catches and also has 281 yards on 18 receptions.

In terms of individual performances, Casteel has the team’s only 100-yard receiving game of the year (105 against USC) and is the only wide receiver on the team to have caught more than five passes in any game this year (seven on two occasions).

Tight end Bryce Wolma has five receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown.

The Wildcat offensive line figures to consist of sophomore Donovan Laie at left tackle, redshirt sophomore Robert Congel at left guard, redshirt junior Josh McCauley at center, fifth-year senior Cody Creason at right guard and either Edgar Burrola or Paiton Fears – both redshirt sophomores – at right tackle.

Laie has started all 11 games (10 at left tackle, one at left guard), Congel has eight starts (seven at left guard, one at center), McCauley started the first nine games at center before missing the last two starts, while Creason started the first six games at right guard but has missed the last five starts. Burrola has six starts at right tackle and Fears has six starts (four at right tackle, two at left guard).

Arizona’s line has been a patchwork group through much of the season as 11 players have started at some point throughout the first 11 games. Two different Wildcats have started at left tackle, three different players have seen starts at center and right tackle, while four different linemen have started at left guard and right guard.

Arizona Offense Summary

Statistically, Arizona ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in scoring offense (28.1) but averages just 20.5 points across its last six games. The Wildcats also rank third in rush offense (175.7), fourth in the Pac-12 in passing offense (269.5) and fifth in the league in total offense (445.3).

During the six-game losing streak in which both Tate and Gunnell have seen quite a bit of time, Tate has 108 pass attempts while Gunnell has 100. Tate has completed 52.8% of his passes with three touchdown passes and three interceptions in that span while Gunnell has completed 63% of his passes with five touchdown passes and one interception across those six games.

Tied for 112th nationally in sacks allowed, a potential key component of this game is if ASU can create an abnormal sense of quarterback pressure and prevent Gunnell and Tate from having clean pockets in which to work.

The Wildcat running backs have experience and impressive yards-per-carry averages, so ASU has to remain disciplined in its attack against the run, make quick contact and wrap up without allowing runners to elude tackles.

Arizona Defense

Along the defensive line, JB Brown and Jalen Harris are listed as the starting ends with Finton Connolly at nose and Trevon Mason at tackle.

Mason tops all Wildcat defensive linemen with 41 tackles including 6.0 for loss with one sack.

Harris leads Arizona with 3.5 sacks – good for him but not great for the team as that is the lowest total for any team leader in sacks in the Pac-12 Conference. Harris also has 23 total tackles and ties for second on the team with 6.0 tackles for loss.

Brown has 19 tackles including 3.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks and Connolly has 15 tackles including 1.5 for loss with 0.5 sacks.

Tenured defender Colin Schooler starts at Mike linebacker with either Tony Fields II or Anthony Pandy at Will.

Schooler leads Arizona in tackles (88) and tackles for loss (8.5), adding two fumble recoveries and 1.5 sacks. Fields is second on the team with 86 tackles including 5.0 for loss with 1.5 sacks, one interception, and one forced fumble. Both Schooler and Fields rank in the top-10 in the Pac-12 in tackles.

Pandy ranks third on the team with 58 tackles including 5.0 for loss with 2.0 sack and one interception.

Tristan Cooper starts at the Spur position, Scottie Young, Jr. at Bandit along with Jace Whittaker at free safety while Lorenzo Burns and Christian Roland-Wallace are listed as the starting cornerbacks.

Young ranks fourth on the team with 57 tackles including 2.5 for loss with one interception, Whittaker has 51 tackles including 2.0 for loss with three interceptions, Burns and Cooper both have 41 tackles while Burns adds team-highs of four interceptions and seven pass breakups. Roland-Wallace has 31 tackles with one interception.

Arizona Defense Summary

Defense for Arizona in 2019 has objectively been an atrocious abomination, resulting in the midseason dismissal of three defensive coaches including former coordinator Marcel Yates.

The Wildcats rank 128th of 130 teams in pass defense (306.7), 127th in total defense (483.5), 123rd in third-down defense (47.4%), 123rd in red zone defense (91.5%), 122nd in scoring defense (36.8), tied for 119th in team tackles for loss (4.3), tied for 116th in team sacks (1.27) and 84th in rush defense (176.8),

Through its current six-game losing streak, Arizona has allowed an average of 43.0 points per game with the lowest output being the 34 points scored by Oregon, while Washington (51 points) and Oregon State (56) both topped 50 points against the Wildcats. In total for the season, only twice has the Arizona defense held an opponent to under 30 points and both instances came in the month of September.

It stands to reason that ASU can use a similar game plan as it had against Oregon and potentially again have big days for Jayden Daniels, Brandon Aiyuk, Frank Darby and Eno Benjamin.

Arizona Special Teams

Special teams have been a significant factor in this rivalry game over the decades as muffed punts, bad snaps, punt return touchdowns, made and missed field goals and PATs have all determined game outcomes throughout the years. This decade alone, the Wildcats have lost a pair of games due to missed or blocked kicks.

Arizona kicker Lucas Havrisik has connected on 10-of-15 field goal attempts and 35-of-37 extra points this year. On field goals, he has a long of 53 with two misses from 34 and 39 yards but his other three came from 50 and beyond. Also, just to clarify – no, he is not the kicker who missed the potential game-winner last year in Tucson.

The Wildcats have used both Matt Aragon (36 punts, 38.9-yard average) and Kyle Ostendorp (19 punts, 40.5-yard average) this year at punter. Ostendorp is listed as the top option for Saturday and has been the primary punter for the past four games.

J.J. Taylor, a nationally prominent returner threat during his career who had a touchdown return during the 2018 season, has averaged 23.8 yards on 16 kick returns as a senior while Tayvian Cunningham also returns kicks. As a team, Arizona averages 6.4 yards on 13 punt returns with Jamarye Joiner leads the way with six returns with an 8.5-yard average.

Overall Summary

The battle for the Territorial Cup – certified by the NCAA as the oldest rivalry trophy in college football – often has wacky, unpredictable elements about it.

The potential for chaos in the rivalry makes many Sun Devil fans very uneasy with being a double-digit favorite, though the past three games in Tempe have resulted in double-digit victories for the Devils with a 42-30 win in 2017, a 52-37 victory in 2015 and a 58-21 destruction in 2013.

Few fans want to believe that logic will prevail and refuse to believe that trends, odds, and statistics are an indication of what should transpire on Frank Kush Field on Saturday night.

This century, ASU holds a 12-7 advantage over Arizona – 6-3 in Tempe – and overall since 2000 has a 6-3 record against Arizona when entering the game with a better record than the Wildcats.

If logic is to be believed, ASU should have tremendous advantages when on offense, especially on the heels of an incredibly dynamic effort by the pass-and-catch group of quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Frank Darby.

It never feels easy to be overly confident entering this game as in the past decade alone there have been borderline miraculous comebacks such as those conducted by ASU in 2010 and 2018, but all things considered Arizona State, if it can avoid voodoo curses and hexes from the ghosts of Territorial Cup past has a strong series of advantages that warrants the two-score point spread that favors the home team.

Keys to a Sun Devil Victory

Play to the Level of Last Week’s Opponent: In the recent past, ASU has had a habit of playing to the level of its opponent – both resulting in good and bad outcomes. Saturday, the Sun Devils will benefit from bringing the focus and intensity they brought to prime-time television last week in their clash with Oregon. That level of general execution and aggressiveness, albeit not a perfect performance by any means, will go a very long way against a team that if evaluated objectively is struggling mightily and faces a substantial talent deficiency compared to Arizona State.

Feed Eno: By his own words in a tweet from May, Eno Benjamin wants to be the most hated man in the city of Tucson. After a three-touchdown game last year in that city, he can help that legacy – and ASU strategically should plan for him to – with a big game Saturday. Also, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Saturday could be Eno’s final game as a Sun Devil, as it may be a logical option for him to enter the 2020 NFL Draft and sit out ASU’s bowl game in preparation for that step.

During this six-game skid for Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed six individual rushers of 100 yards or more – including two against Oregon State – with Zack Moss last week rushing for 203 for Utah. In four of those six games, opposing teams have topped 200 rushing yards against the Wildcats.

If ASU can rush for more than 200 yards, the logical expectation is that Eno Benjamin would probably have at least 150 or so of those, which presumably would lead to a very successful day for the Devils.

Last week, Benjamin had 36 offensive touches and totaled 168 combined yards (114 rushing, 54 receiving). In games that Benjamin has at least 150 combined rushing and receiving yards, ASU is 3-0 this season and 7-1 across the past two seasons. If given somewhere in the ballpark of 30 touches on Saturday, the logical expectation is that Benjamin can not only cause distinct damage of his own but also open up downfield opportunities for ASU’s big-play pass-catching duo of Aiyuk and Darby.

Which Line Prevails: On the season, both teams have had noted struggles both protecting their own quarterbacks as well as attacking those from other teams. Arizona is tied for 112th nationally with 32 sacks allowed, while ASU is tied for 103rd with 27 allowed. On defense, Arizona is tied for 116th nationally with just 14 sacks while ASU is tied for 80th with 21. Will one team win this exchange by a noticeable degree? Will both struggle? Will both have abnormally productive days? The data implies that ASU should have at least a slight advantage, but if it can gain a more than marginal one when it comes to protecting Jayden Daniels and harassing Grant Gunnell and/or Khalil Tate, it can be a difference maker in the game.

Familiar Faces

· Arizona Offensive Coordinator Noel Mazzone coached at ASU under Dennis Erickson from 2010-11

· Arizona Outside Receivers Coach Taylor Mazzone was a part of ASU’s staff from 2010-11

· Arizona DB Xavier Bell attended Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya

· Arizona RB Nazar Bombata attended Bishop Alemany High School, as did ASU WR Brandon Pierce and OL Dohnovan West

· Arizona DE JB Brown attended Long Beach (Calif.) Poly High School, as did ASU’s Aashari Crosswell, Jack Jones, Elijah Juarez, Jermayne Lole, Kejuan Markham, Keon Markham, and Kobe Williams; Brown was coached by ASU’s Antonio Pierce in high school

· Arizona K Lucas Havrisik attended Norco (Calif.) High School, as did ASU OL Jarrett Bell

· Arizona LB Parker Henley attended Chandler (Ariz.) High School, as did ASU CB Chase Lucas

· Arizona DL Chandler Kelly attended Chandler (Ariz.) Basha High School, as did ASU OL Roman DeWys and DL Parker Jacobs

· Arizona P Kyle Ostendorp attended Phoenix (Ariz.) Desert Vista High School, as did ASU DB Elijah Gammage

· Arizona LB Anthony Pandy attended Harbor City (Calif.) Narbonne High School, as did ASU LB Darien Butler

· Arizona LB Colin Schooler attended Mission Viejo (Calif.) High School, as did ASU QB Joey Yellen

· Arizona DB Rhedi Short attended Los Angeles (Calif.) High School, as did ASU DL Stephon Wright

· Arizona QB Khalil Tate attended Gardena (Calif.) Serra High School, as did ASU LB Merlin Robertson

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