Sun Devil Hockey is all but a lock to go to the 2019 NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament for the first time in program history. But what’s going to remain a mystery for the next month is where ASU will have to travel to and who it will be playing.
“Until we hear our name on March 24th, to us, we’re not in,” head coach Greg Powers said. “We can’t approach it any other way. It’s not a game of mathematicians, it’s hockey.”
Powers and his team have carried this mindset all season long, and it’s a fair assessment of the situation. There’s been a consistent ‘one game at a time’ mentality when approaching each weekend series for the Sun Devils and that’s what has carried them to this point.
However, the numbers really do speak for themselves. According to College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix, ASU has a 99.9 percent chance to make it into the tournament.
This process is based on thousands of simulations – 20,000 to be exact – of the remaining games prior to Selection Day which, as Powers mentioned, is March 24th. All teams in NCAA Division I are then given a PairWise ranking according to the results.
In what is considered the most important list in college hockey, ASU is currently ranked No. 8 in the PairWise comparison ratings. It’s also worth noting the Sun Devils have been ranked in 13 consecutive releases in the regular USCHO poll.
But what is the PairWise?
In short, it is a mirroring process of how the NCAA Selection Committee decides who makes the tournament after the six conference champions are determined. The NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament is comprised of 16 teams; automatic bids are awarded to the six conference champions and then the rest of the spots are filled with ten at-large bids.
There are three areas of criteria that factor into where a team ranks in the PairWise system: Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), record vs. common opponents and head-to-head record.
Teams under consideration (basically the top 25 RPI teams but every team is considered) for the tournament are compared next to one another. A point is awarded based on who has the better number in the three categories above.
A school also gets a point for every head-to-head victory. At the end of the process, the team with more points wins the comparison. If it ends in a tie, it's broken by determining which team has the better RPI, according to the NCAA and CHN.
As some may not know, ASU is the only independent school in all of Division I college hockey. The last time an independent program received an at-large bid was when Alaska Anchorage did it way back in 1992.
The Sun Devils have had a historic year in all facets. Their 21-10-1 record holds more wins than the first two years with a full Division I schedule combined.
Exceptional play that beyond exceeded preseason expectations has the team knocking at the doorstep of this year’s big dance. And the hockey world has taken notice.
But when it comes to being placed in the tournament, there are so many different scenarios for the Sun Devils. The first dilemma is where will they have to travel out east to.
College hockey’s NCAA Tournament is composed of four regions that are selected by the men’s ice hockey committee in advance. This year, the regional sites are East – Providence, R.I.; Northeast – Manchester, N.H.; Midwest – Allentown, Pa.; and West – Fargo, N.D.
At the end of March, ASU could be heading any one of these destinations. But now, the next step is the seeding of the 16 teams that make it in.
Currently, USCHO.com has the Sun Devils listed as a No. 2 seed (based on No. 1-4 in each region). However, realistically, this doesn’t mean much as a lot can change over the next few weeks.
The six conferences (Big Ten, Hockey East, ECAC, NCHC, WCHA and Atlantic Hockey) all have to battle it out for at least two weeks leading up to that Selection Sunday. The six winners get that very important automatic bid as previously mentioned.
With this in mind, the Sun Devils are technically rooting for the favorites in each of the conference tournaments. It’s because if the best teams throughout the season that are above them in the PairWise receive an auto bid, it has no effect on ASU’s chances for one of the ten at-large bids left over.
But if those favorites lose in their respective conference tournaments, they will be taking one of the at-large spots that begins to impact ASU’s odds.
What’s going to go against the Sun Devils is the rest of the NCAA is playing games for the majority of March. ASU won’t have any more chances to build on its résumé for almost a month leading up to the tournament, having to twiddle its thumbs while waiting in suspense.
This upcoming weekend’s series at University of Minnesota plays an important role in where the Sun Devils are seeded in the 2019 bracket, however. The Golden Gophers desperately need the two wins as they are on the edge of making the tournament themselves, currently residing at No. 22 in the PairWise.
Obviously, a road sweep would propel ASU up the ladder even more in any of the rankings, most likely locking in the No. 2 seed projection given by USCHO.com. A split with a Big Ten team on the road really won’t do any harm either.
And if the Sun Devils were to get swept over the weekend in the State of Hockey, it could lead to them falling to the bubble of the tournament based on the outcome of each loss. But expect ASU to clinch its first NCAA Tournament berth in school history when it’s all said and done.
