You probably thought, even if for a second, that this was going to go like last year, didn’t you?

It’s okay, I did too, even if just for a brief moment. There were signs.

The non-conference season for Arizona State men’s basketball has come to a close, and at one point, it felt like the Sun Devils were making another surprise jump into the national conversation. And we all know it felt like Déjà vu when ASU beat two good teams in a Las Vegas tournament.

But this year’s non-conference was less of a smooth ride and more of a roller coaster. There was plenty of good and plenty of bad, and what’s left is a bevy of question marks entering the new year.

On one hand, the Sun Devils’ résumé, right now, looks good, when compared to the rest of the country; we’ll talk about how and why in a little bit. Aside from Princeton, their losses are respectable, and their wins are pretty darn good. They’ve navigated through one of the country’s more difficult non-conference slates and have plenty to show for it.

On another hand, ASU has already played the most difficult parts of its schedule. Its conference slate is riddled with potential bad-loss landmines, and there aren’t many key-win opportunities to make up for it.

Let’s dig in.

THE CURRENT STATUS

Right now, ASU is 9-3 entering conference play. That’s pretty solid. As far as the committee’s metrics are concerned…

NET: No. 45

KenPom: No. 50

Sagarin: No. 49

BPI: No. 53

KPI: No. 18

NET SOS: No. 39

Now, let’s break it down by quadrants. These will continue to shift as the season goes on, but here’s how things look as of today.

Quadrant 1 (Home vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Road vs. 1-75) WINS: vs. No. 15 Kansas, No. 18 Mississippi State (N), No. 35 Utah State (N) LOSSES: vs. No. 11 Nevada (N), @ No. 44 Vanderbilt

RECORD: 3-2

Quadrant 2 (Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Road vs. 76-135) WINS: @ No. 79 Georgia RECORD: 1-0

Quadrant 3 (Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Road vs. 136-240) None

Quadrant 4 (Home vs. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Road vs. 241+) WINS: vs. No. 173 Texas Southern, vs. No. 197 Omaha, vs. No. 217 Long Beach State, vs. No. 218 Cal State Fullerton, vs. No. 334 McNeese State LOSSES: vs. No. 199 Princeton

RECORD: 5-1

None of this is particularly bad. If anything, it’s just really hard to figure out who the Sun Devils are. There aren’t many teams in the country that have wins as good and losses as bad as what we’re seeing on this résumé.

Between the quality wins, the ugly loss, and the middling metrics, my latest bracket projection had ASU as a No. 6 seed, but, seeing as it was published prior to the Princeton loss, the Sun Devils are more of a No. 8 seed now, heading into the weekend. The Bracket Matrix, as of New Year’s Eve, had ASU as the last No. 7 seed, good for 28th overall.

All of that can — and likely will — change. Let’s talk about how.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

Here’s the thing — and you know this, by now — the Pac-12, en masse, is awful. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, it’s really bad, statistically speaking. Some stats…

--The Pac-12’s top-ranked team, in the NET, is actually ASU at No. 45, The Sun Devils rank behind nine Big Ten teams, seven ACC teams, eight SEC teams, six Big 12 teams, four Big East teams and another 11 teams from leagues that most would describe as “mid- or low-major.”

--Four Power 5 programs currently rank outside the NET Top 150. Of those four, half of them — Washington State and California — come from the Pac-12. Utah and USC also aren’t all that far from that cut-off.

--”Quadrant 1” consists of home games against the NET Top 30, neutral-site games against the Top 50 and road games against the Top 75. The Pac-12 doesn’t have a single team that qualifies as a Q1 opponent at home and has just four that qualify as Q1 road opponents. Of those four — three, excluding ASU — the Sun Devils happen to play two on the road.

I could go on. I’ll spare you.

It’s not like these metrics are out to get the Pac-12, either. No one is sitting in NCAA headquarters weighting NET numbers against Pac-12 teams within the unified formula. Some of these teams are just that bad.

Let’s look first at the raw results. USC lost to Santa Clara (NET No. 231) by 10, TCU by 35 and have gathered all of their wins against Quadrant 4. Washington State’s losses are ugly; the Cougars have lost to Montana State, New Mexico State, Seattle, and Santa Clara and also haven’t beaten anyone outside Q4.

As for Cal, the Golden Bears have six losses and have been obliterated by not-incredible competition. Cal lost by 22 to Fresno State, 17 to Temple, 19 to San Francisco, 17 to Yale, and 13 to Saint Mary’s before tacking on a loss to Seattle of its own. Cal’s also 286nd out of 353 Division I teams in KenPom adjusted defense. There you have it.

The list goes on, and there’s really no team that’s immune, not even the class of the league. ASU lost to Princeton at home. Oregon lost to Texas Southern at home. Arizona lost to Baylor and Alabama, two middling Power 5 programs. Washington’s losses aren’t bad, but there’s already four of them.

Here’s a full rundown of the league’s forgettable months of November and December:

When you get down to it, other than ASU’s wins against Kansas, Mississippi State and Utah State, Oregon’s win against Syracuse and maybe Arizona’s at Connecticut, it seems like every time the Pac-12 played a “loseable” game, it lost. They aren’t all bad losses, but they add up to a bad reputation, a bad record, and a low strength of schedule for everyone involved.

So let’s zero back in on the Sun Devils and what they need to do with this information.

Simply put, there’s really no room for error. ASU will have few chances to really prove itself to the committee once the calendar turns to 2019. Unless there’s a remarkable shift in NET ratings for some of these conference opponents, the Sun Devils will play a maximum of three, four, maybe five Q1 games between now and the postseason.

That doesn’t sound that bad in a vacuum, but in other Power 5 leagues, teams are getting such opportunities in double-digit amounts. The Big Ten, for example, features seven teams alone in the Top 30 — therefore guaranteeing each team in the league at least seven Q1 games. Another four rank between 31 and 75.

With that in mind, if there was ever a year in which ASU needed to figure out its road struggles, it’s this one. Because no one in the Pac-12 is even sniffing the Top 30, it’s extremely likely the Sun Devils will not have a single opportunity to play a Q1 opponent on their home floor.

As things stand right now, Q1 games currently lie at No. 61 Arizona (Mar. 9) and at No. 74 Colorado (Feb. 13). Other games that could slip into Q1 would be contests at Oregon (Feb. 28) and maybe at UCLA (Jan. 24).

You can see a full, frequently-updated breakdown of ASU’s quadrants here.

But here’s the catch; It’s been six years since ASU won in any of those four arenas; the Sun Devils last won at Colorado in 2013, Oregon in 2011, Arizona in 2010 and UCLA in 2009. That has to — truly, has to — change this season if ASU wants to put together a strong tournament résumé.

The other bad side effect of the Pac-12’s poor non-conference performance? The Sun Devils really can’t lose at home. In its nine home games, ASU can probably afford to go no worse than 7-2 or 6-3. Losing at Wells Fargo Arena to California, Washington State, Utah, Stanford or Oregon State will not be an option.

Not that I expect this to happen, but 8-10 isn’t going to cut it. The Pac-12 is worse than it was last year, and ASU doesn’t have two obvious No. 1 seeds sticking out as wins on its résumé. Kansas is still great, yes, but there was also no loss nearly as bad as Princeton serving as a red flag on last year’s team sheet.

Furthermore, the Sun Devils have a similar number of Quadrant 1 victories, but raw “Quadrant 1 victories” didn’t get them in last year, specifically beating two No. 1 seeds did.

And I know, you’re probably thinking, we’re only halfway through the season, can’t the conference’s number improve?

Yes, teams can and will improve. But the quality of the conference, at large, probably won’t, at least not much. Conferences separate themselves, as a whole, from one another in November and December. I’m not here to say these teams aren’t talented or well-coached — several of them are — but they haven’t capitalized. As a result, the league suffers.

And as teams in this league trade blows over the next two months, it’s hard to envision any of these teams shooting up through the NET ratings and changing the current strength-of-schedule quandary, unless one truly or two dominate the competition.

Teams like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado — all of which have legitimate tournament aspirations, but nothing on the résumé to help them get there just yet — will be desperate to pick up quality wins. They’ll be desperate to beat each other, and furthermore, to beat ASU. They’ll all likely need as many as 12 or 13 wins in conference play just to be considered.

The Sun Devils have it a little bit easier, thanks to a stronger output in November and December. They’ll probably only need 10 or 11 conference wins to lock up an at-large bid.

This team certainly has the talent to do that, but the last time they won a double-digit number of Pac-12 contests was in 2013-14. They haven’t won 12 since 2009-10. And they haven’t won more than 12 since 1980-81.

In short, unlike anyone else in the Pac-12 right now, it’s ASU’s league — and tournament bid — to lose. But with a target on their back, several of landmines waiting at home, and a dire need to win games on the road, though, the Sun Devils have their work cut out for them over the next eight weeks.

Buckle up.

To get more of this analysis and other ASU basketball coverage topics make sure you listen to the Pull-Up J's podcast hosted by Jeff Griffith and fellow staff member Jordan Kaye