So, once again, Arizona State split a weekend.

The Sun Devils dismantled California by 31 points — yes, that’s the Cal team that lost to Central Arkansas and UC Riverside and currently sits at No. 213 in the RPI. Then, ASU ran into Stanford on senior day, fell behind by more than 20, and clawed all the way back to eventually lose by one.

20-10. 8-10 in the Pac-12. That’s where the Sun Devils will set entering Las Vegas.

It’s not bad. But it’s really not good. And it’s got ASU dangerously close to the bubble.

Before we talk about what needs to be done in Vegas, let’s take a quick look at the facts and figures:

RPI: 58th

KenPom: 38th

ESPN BPI: 44th

SOS: 69th

Quadrant 1 (Home Games vs. RPI Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)

Record: 3-5

Wins: No. 3 Xavier (Neutral), @ No. 5 Kansas, @ No. 47 Utah

Losses: @ No. 18 Arizona, @ No. 63 Washington, vs. No. 18 Arizona, @ No. 67 Oregon, @ No. 72 Stanford

Note: ASU’s win over USC has slipped back into quadrant two, where I’d imagine it’ll stay barring the Trojans making a deep run in the Pac-12 tournament. The Sun Devils’ loss at Stanford, however, moved into quadrant one this weekend.

Quadrant 2 (Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135)

Record: 4-4

Wins: No. 34 USC, vs. No. 38 UCLA, No. 62 Kansas State (Neutral), No. 92 St. John’s (Neutral)

Losses: vs. No. 47 Utah, @ No. 86 Colorado, vs. No. 67 Oregon, vs. No. 72 Stanford

Quadrant 3 (Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)

Record: 8-1

Wins: vs. No. 86 Colorado, vs. No. 90 San Diego State, vs. No. 116 Vanderbilt, vs. No. 130 UC Irvine, @ No. 213 California, @ No. 173 Washington State, vs. No. 137 San Francisco, vs. No. 144 Oregon State

Losses: @ No. 144 Oregon State

Quadrant 4 (Home vs. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 240+)

Record: 5-0

Wins: vs. No. 260 Idaho State, vs. No. 313 Northern Arizona, vs. No. 338 Longwood, vs. No. 185 Pacific, vs. No. 213 California

~~~

Again, all over the place. The RPI, though, is scary. But it’s a product of that relatively low strength of schedule, and shouldn’t make too big of a difference in the wrong direction.

The sub-.500 mark in conference play, against a relatively weak Pac-12, is the most glaring part of the Sun Devils’ résumé, to me, right now. I entered January saying the Sun Devils needed a 9-9 conference mark to lock up a tournament bid, and I agree with my two-months-ago self; they haven’t locked up a tournament bid.

But thanks to a pretty unimpressive group of bubble teams, ASU is still on the right side of it entering championship week, and it’s got a decent cushion ahead of some of those teams thanks to one of the best pairs of wins — from an RPI standpoint — by any team in the country.

Yes, those wins over Kansas and Xavier still matter; they really matter.

With that in mind, here’s where I have the Sun Devils in my latest bracket, the entirety of which can be found at SidelineIntel.com

WEST REGIONAL | Los Angeles, Calif.

(Wichita, Kan.)

No. 1 KANSAS vs. No. 16 RADFORD / ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Arizona State

(Boise, Idaho)

No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

No. 4 MICHIGAN vs. No. 13 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

As far as my “S-Curve” ranking is concerned, ASU’s sitting at No. 36, making it the fourth No. 9 seed. 10 teams sit between the Sun Devils and the cut line, with just Butler and Saint Mary’s separating them from the “Last Four Byes” category.

So, there’s some breathing room. ASU could lose Wednesday afternoon against Colorado and still find itself, somehow, playing in the NCAA Tournament. If that’s the case, the Sun Devils are probably looking at a No. 11 seed and maybe a trip to Dayton for the First Four, but, again, so much of it comes down to what everyone else is doing.

If you’re an Arizona State fan and the Sun Devils do end up losing to the Buffaloes, you’re going to want to start rooting hard against the likes of Louisville, Texas, Syracuse, Providence, UCLA, Baylor, USC, Marquette, UCLA…

Basically, any time you read somewhere that a team is on the bubble, root against that team.

If ASU were to lose to Colorado and several of those squads were to make respectable showings during championship week, we may see the doomsday scenario where there are NIT games being played at Wells Fargo Arena.

But if I’m being honest, I doubt it.

Here’s what I do expect: Arizona State beats Colorado and loses to Arizona in Thursday’s quarterfinals, therefore locking up a spot in the big dance, probably with a No. 9 seed, maybe a No. 10 seed, but nothing more.

The only thing ASU can do to improve its stock in any significant manner would be to beat the Wildcats. A win over RPI No. 86 Colorado on a neutral floor doesn’t really make your résumé any better, but it does lock you into your current position, safely in the field.

To sum it up, though, here’s your to-do list if you’re an ASU fan, assuming all you’re asking for at this point is a tournament bid:

1. Beat Colorado.

2. If No. 1 fails, spend your weekend rooting against the bubble.

3. If No. 2 fails, hope for a miracle.