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Published Jan 23, 2019
Analysis: ASU back in the NCAA tourney conversation after a pivotal sweep
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Hod Rabino  •  ASUDevils
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Finally.


It took a few weeks, but at long last, Arizona State did what it needed to — and probably should have been doing all along — in Pac-12 play: Sweep a weekend.


For just the second time under Bobby Hurley, the Sun Devils defeated two travel-partnered opponents in the same weekend.


Résumé-wise, the wins don’t mean a ton. Beating Oregon State and Oregon — two teams that are decent at best — at home isn’t going to make your team sheet look all that much better. But the most important thing is that the Sun Devils are back on track. They’re back — in my opinion, and in the opinion of most bracket prognosticators — on the right side of the bubble.


That said, there’s plenty of work left to be done. We’ve heard this story before; ASU felt like it was back in business after a home sweep of the Los Angeles schools last year, only to lose five of its next six games, nearly miss the big dance, and flame out in the First Four.


But, at the very least, the Sun Devils’ at-large case remains firmly intact.


So, before we getting into what they have to do to further solidify it, here’s the updated breakdown (games through Jan. 21, 2019):


NET: No. 70

KenPom: No. 60

Sagarin: No. 54

BPI: No. 59

KPI: No. 39

Strength of Schedule: No. 56

Strength of Record: No. 59


Quadrant 1 (Home games vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)

WINS: vs. No. 16 Kansas (Dec. 22), No. 27 Mississippi State (Nov. 19), No. 42 Utah State (Nov. 21)

LOSSES: No. 22 Nevada (Dec. 7)

RECORD: 3-1


Quadrant 2 (Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 50-100, Away vs. 76-135)

WINS: @ No. 102 Georgia (Dec. 15), vs. No. 68 Oregon (Jan. 19), vs. 73 Oregon State (Jan. 17)

LOSSES: @ No. 89 Vanderbilt (Dec. 17) @ No. 113 Stanford (Jan. 12)

RECORD: 3-2


Quadrant 3 (Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)

WINS: vs. No. 100 Colorado (Jan. 5)

LOSSES: vs. No. 104 Utah (Jan. 3)

RECORD: 1-1


Quadrant 4 (Home vs. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 241+)

WINS: vs. No. 183 Omaha (Nov. 28), vs. No. 213 Texas Southern (Dec. 1), vs. No. 196 Long Beach State (Nov. 12), vs. No. 204 Cal State Fullerton (Nov. 6), vs. No. 312 McNeese State (Nov. 9), @ No. 247 California (Jan. 9)

LOSSES: vs. No. 167 Princeton (Dec. 29)

RECORD: 6-1


As you can see, the numbers are starting to improve. About a week ago, ASU ranked 59th or worse in all but one major metric, and ranked a dismal 82nd in the NET — at the time, right behind a 7-10 Penn State team.


There was very minimal argument for the Sun Devils to be in any tournament field. But, regardless of opponent, back-to-back conference wins will change that.


The quadrant breakdown has fluctuated a little bit — mostly for the worse; Cal moved into Q4, and Vanderbilt and Georgia both fell into Q2 — but the addition of two Q2 wins in the Oregon schools was quite helpful.


Those schools are right on the edge and could very well fall into Q3 at any time, but wins are wins, and for now, those ones are solid.


So, let’s talk about what’s next.


Here’s the shocker of the year — what’s next is two more Q2 games. UCLA and USC rank right around the No. 100 mark; the Bruins sit at No. 106, while the Trojans are No. 98.


As far as the former is concerned, this season has been a rollercoaster. UCLA opened the season as one of the Pac-12’s darlings, but a 10-8 record that is further blemished by the likes of Liberty, Belmont, and six double-digit defeats — as well as the firing of head coach Steve Alford — has left the Bruins, seemingly, in shambles.


As for USC, the Trojans’ 10-8 record looks arguably worse, with a 35-point loss to TCU and a double-overtime loss to Santa Clara. USC defeated its crosstown rival this past week — a bright spot on an otherwise depressing 2018-19 campaign.


Either way, each team is a shell of its preseason self. In all honesty, ASU should go in and sweep this weekend, pretty easily.


If the Sun Devils did so, they’d be 15-5 with a 6-2 mark in the Pac-12 entering a key stretch of three games that features home games versus Arizona and league-leading Washington. Maybe split those two and beat Washington State, and you’re already 8-3. You’re well on your way. You’re maybe three or four wins away from an at-large bid. Smooth sailing.


But…


The only problem with that lovely scenario is — while it’s, on paper, entirely possible — it requires history to be made. Any ASU fan knows this full well by now, but the Sun Devils have still yet to win back-to-back road games under Bobby Hurley.


If there was ever a week to do it, this seems like the one. USC and UCLA are both struggling, ASU has more talent and is riding high after a pair of key victories. That was the case two weeks ago in the Bay Area, but hey, here’s a chance to make up for that.


A split wouldn’t be that bad after having swept this past weekend; if you split, you’re still 5-3, and 11 or 12 wins is still well within the realm of possibility.


But we all know this team wants more than that. And I think we all know this team probably should be able to do more than that. Especially after the way last season ended, it’s hard to truly expect more than a middling performance in the big picture, but the Sun Devils are being served the opportunity to change that narrative on a silver platter.


So, let’s see what happens in Los Angeles. Maybe, just maybe, ASU will prove its former self wrong. And maybe, just maybe, the Sun Devils will start to claw their way back off of the bubble.

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