In the preseason, this Saturday’s matchup in Tempe between the Trojans and the Sun Devils was supposed to be the proverbial battle royale to determine the Pac-12 South championship. Instead, this matchup will feature division foes who have been less than impressive this year, each dealing with issues that have hampered them as of late. Let’s take a deep dive into examining this contest.
USC Offense
A quarterback who just two years ago took USC – and in many ways, the Pac-12 – by storm now faces the grim reality that his days may be numbered with the Trojans, even if he remains the starter at the position and statistically one of the conference’s better players at his position.
After being thrust into the starting role as a true freshman in 2019, Scottsdale native Kedon Slovis went on an absolute tear that season and followed that with a 2020 campaign that included First-Team All-Pac-12 accolades.
Just as USC’s 2021 season quickly turned south, at least from the outside looking in, it appears that Slovis’ tenure with the Trojans might equally be on thin ice as upstart freshman Jaxson Dart, in the time that he’s had, has shown the skill set to be the X-factor that could kickstart the Trojans as the program moves on to a new coaching regime.
That said, Slovis has still, by and large, done his job, even if it hasn’t translated into the number of wins expected of USC. He leads the Pac-12 by averaging 252.8 passing yards per game, though his 11-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is in the bottom half of Pac-12 starters.
Statistically, some of his better games have come in USC’s losses – though, objectively, the scores imply that passing was a necessity in those games – as he had 401 yards in a loss to Utah, 355 in a loss to Oregon State, and 299 in a defeat against Notre Dame. Those stand as his top-three passing yardage outputs of the 2021 season.
Dart, a recruit ASU had high hopes to land, was the No. 5 dual-threat quarterback in the 2021 class and has quickly shown the tangible and intangible qualities to be a star in this conference.
In his debut against Washington State, he threw for 391 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in a 45-14 victory over the Cougars, and after missing some time due to injury, he split time with Slovis last week and completed 12-of-18 passes for 109 yards with two touchdowns. He also rushed six times for 32 yards against WSU but had no rushing attempts versus Arizona.
This week, it appears to be the case that USC will again utilize both quarterbacks against ASU.
Fueled both by a recent surge of productivity on the ground and the recent loss of arguably college football’s most talented wide receiver, it will be interesting to see if USC leans toward a heavier dose of its ground game on Saturday.
Thanks largely to a pair of outstanding efforts in the last two weeks, Texas transfer Keaontay Ingram now ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game (95.1) as he has 761 yards on 125 carries with five touchdowns along with 17 receptions for 106 yards.
Ingram enters Saturday with major momentum as his past two games have been his top performances this season both in terms of carries and rushing yards as he had 24 carries for 138 yards with a touchdown two weeks ago against Notre Dame and career highs of 27 carries for 204 yards and a score last week versus Arizona. For Ingram to touch the ball in the neighborhood of 25 times against ASU should not come as any sort of surprise.
Veteran rusher Vavae Malepai adds valuable depth to the Trojan running backs room and has 61 carries for 239 yards with two touchdowns while adding eight receptions. TCU transfer Darwin Barlow has impressed in limited action this year as he has 155 yards on 31 carries (5.0 avg.) with two touchdowns in seven games.
The Trojan offense – and the team as a whole – received shattering news last week with the season-ending injury to superstar receiver Drake London, a surefire First-Team All-American, as he ranks second nationally in receptions (88) and third in receiving yards (1,084). Prior to the injury suffered last week, London had at least 130 receiving yards on six occasions and at least 12 receptions five times. Including last week’s game against Arizona, London’s 2021 season only included one game in which he had fewer than nine receptions.
London has historically been a nightmare for the Sun Devils, as last year he had 2020 season-highs of eight catches for 125 yards, including the game-winning touchdown for USC, while he also had a touchdown catch in ASU’s close loss to the Trojans in Tempe in 2019.
Though there’s a massive gap from London’s numbers to the next top receivers, Memphis transfer Tahj Washington has 32 catches for 396 yards and a touchdown, while Gary Bryant has 24 receptions for 298 yards and five scores. Both players stepped up after London’s injury last week, as Bryant had two touchdowns on just three receptions, while Washington had eight catches for 87 yards.
With London out, Kyle Ford enters the starting lineup for Saturday. Ford, a top-100 prospect of the 2019 class, has only appeared in four of USC’s eight games and has seven taches for 104 yards with one touchdown. He had two catches for 20 yards last week.
An oddly quiet player this season is receiver K.D. Nixon, a transfer from Colorado who had 104 career receptions for the Buffaloes from 2017-20, as he only has two catches for 19 yards in seven games this year and hasn’t caught a pass since Sept. 25. However, Nixon has had two of his top five career games in terms of receiving yards against ASU as he had 98 yards on a season-high six catches against ASU in 2019 and five receptions for 97 yards versus the Sun Devils in 2018.
Erik Krommenhoek, Michael Trigg, and Malcolm Epps are the top targets at tight end for USC, and each of the three typically comes up with at least a catch a game, and there is also some big play potential among the group.
Krommenhoek has 11 receptions for 103 yards and touchdown, Epps has nine catches for 154 yards and a score, while Trigg has seven receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown. Epps, a transfer from Texas who ASU heavily pursued this past offseason, leads all Trojans with his 17.1 yards-per-catch average.
The Trojan line is set to consist of tackle Courtland Ford and guard Andrew Vorhees on the left side, guard Liam Jimmons, and tackle Jonah Monheim or Jalen McKenzie on the right side with Brett Neilon at center.
Ford, Vorhees, Neilon, and Jimmons have started all eight games at their respective positions, while McKenzie was just last week inserted into the starting lineup after Monheim had started the first seven games at right tackle.
Among the linemen potentially in the starting lineup Saturday, Vorhees (33 career starts), Neilon (25), Jimmons (16), and McKenzie (15) bring the most experience to the field.
USC Offense Summary
With London’s season-ending injury and a potential two-QB system, it seems to make perfect sense that USC will heavily rely upon Ingram and the run game – especially with Ingram’s surge of production the past few weeks.
If ASU doesn’t take a stand and win more battles at the line of scrimmage point of attack, Ingram has every tool necessary not only to burst for significant gains and wear down the Sun Devil defense but also create openings for the Trojan pass game, even with star Drake London out of action.
USC Defense
Up front, nose tackle Stanley Ta’ufo’ou and defensive tackle Tuli Tulipulotu are slated to be joined in the starting lineup by end Nick Figueroa, though Figueroa is noted on the depth chart as being uncertain for Saturday.
Tuipulotu leads all Trojan linemen with 31 tackles and ranks second on the team in both TFLs (5.0) and sacks (3.5). Ta’ufo’ou has 12 tackles, including 1.0 for loss, while Figueroa has ten tackles, including 2.0 for loss.
If Figueroa cannot go, next up may be Korey Foreman, the No. 4 overall recruit for the 2021 class and the top signee in the Pac-12 Conference. Foreman’s productivity thus far has not lived up to expectations, as he has appeared in all eight games but has managed seven total tackles, including 2.5 for loss with 1.5 sacks. His standout performance of the year came a few weeks ago in USC’s loss to Utah, as he registered all of his TFLs and sacks for the year in that one game.
One of the top pass rushers in the Pac-12, Drake Jackson, is the team’s top defensive standout, as he leads USC with 7.0 tackles-for-loss including 5.0 sacks as part of his 27 total tackles. He enters Saturday’s game with momentum as after a relatively slow start to the season, he’s recorded 5.0 TFLs, including 4.0 sacks across the last four games.
Kana’i Mauga starts at the “Mac” position with Ralen Goforth at “Rover.” Mauga has a team-best of 53 tackles through eight games and is tied for the team lead with two pass breakups. Goforth ranks third on the team in tackles (36).
In the secondary, Phoenix native Isaiah Pola-Mao starts at free safety with Chase Williams at strong safety, while Chris Steele and Isaac Taylor-Stuart start at cornerback. Greg Johnson is listed as the top nickel back but is listed on this week’s depth chart as being uncertain for Saturday’s game. Calen Bullock is listed behind Johnson on the depth chart.
Williams ranks second on the team and leads all Trojan defensive backs with 42 tackles, including 2.5 for loss with 1.0 sack. Pola-Mao has 35 tackles on the year, while Bullock has 29. Steele and Taylor-Stuart both have 22 tackles and an interception each so far in 2021, while Johnson has 18 tackles, including 2.0 for loss in six games.
USC Defense Summary
To say the Trojans have several defensive flaws is a significant understatement, as USC has allowed at least 42 points on three occasions this year while allowing 34 points to Arizona last week – the first time the Wildcats have scored 20 or more in a game this year and the most points in a contest for Arizona since scoring 38 in a loss to Oregon State on Nov. 2, 2019 (15 total games in between).
USC ranks 11th in the Pac-12 (only ahead of Arizona) and tied for 82nd nationally in scoring defense (28.6) while tying for seventh in the league in total defense (392.8).
The Trojan defense also lacks any true proven playmakers outside Jackson and perhaps Tuipulotu, as only one other player on the team has more than 1.5 sacks on the year (Jacob Lichtenstein, 3.0), while no player on the roster has more than one interception or more than two pass breakups.
Steele was a Second-Team All-Pac-12 performer in the abbreviated 2020 season, while Figueroa and Pola-Mao were Honorable Mention selections a year ago, but nothing jumps off the page in terms of individual or unit performance for 2021.
All this said, as always, USC has a bounty of players who were elite recruits that potentially can snap into sensational play – especially if ASU’s passion and/or execution struggle on Saturday.
USC Special Teams
At kicker, Scottsdale native Parker Lewis has seen the bulk of the action this year and has connected on 11-of-13 field goal attempts – though he did start 9-9, is 2-4 since, and did not play last week against Arizona.
Alex Stadthaus is 4-4 on the year with a long of 40 yards, including 2-2 last week against the Wildcats.
The depth chart for this week lists an “or” between the two kickers for Saturday’s game.
Punter Ben Griffiths is one of the league’s better performers at his position as he averages 45.4 yards on 28 punts this year.
Gary Bryant and K.D. Nixon are the team’s top two returns specialists, though the output from both has been limited. Bryant averages 21.2 yards on ten kickoff returns and 4.5 yards on ten punt returns, while Nixon averages 19.0 yards on two kickoff returns and 7.0 yards on three punt returns.
Overall Summary
What a difference a few months can make.
Back in the summer, this November showdown figured to be between two nationally ranked teams with the potential to be a de facto championship game for the South division crown.
Fast-forward to the present day, and the Trojans, guided by an interim head coach since week three, sit at a .500 record while ASU, on the heels of back-to-back losses along with other issues, faces a variety of unknowns for the short and long-term future of the program.
Historically the most elite program on the west coast and one of the true national powers of college football, USC will soon look for its fourth full-time head coach since the start of the 2013 season.
We can talk about all the Xs and Os we want to, but on a very simple level, this game likely will boil down to which team wants it more. Though both teams’ goals are likely out of the picture for 2021, the losing team Saturday faces the sobering reality of things going from bad to even worse entering the final few games of the season.
Familiar Faces
· ASU assistant coach Chris Claiborne played at USC from 1996-98 and was the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, a Consensus All-American and the Butkus Award winner at linebacker for the Trojans as a senior. He was on the USC coaching staff in 2020 as a quality control analyst.
· ASU DB Jack Jones played at USC from 2016-17
· ASU assistant coach Shawn Slocum coached at USC from 1998-99
· USC K Parker Lewis (Scottsdale Saguaro HS), OL AJ Mageo (Mesa Red Mountain HS), OL Andrew Milek (Phoenix Brophy Prep), DB Isaiah Pola-Mao (Phoenix Mountain Pointe HS), QB Kedon Slovis (Scottsdale Desert Mountain HS), WR Jake Smith (Scottsdale Notre Dame Prep) and WR Zach Wilson (Scottsdale Saguaro HS) are Arizona natives
· USC DB Max Williams is the brother of ASU DB Macen Williams
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