After a thrilling 95-88 overtime win against its rival last week, it’s back to business for Arizona State (15-6 overall, 6-3 conference), who will host the Washington schools this week. The first game on the docket is a Thursday night tilt against struggling Washington State.
Thursday’s contest offers a unique challenge for the Sun Devils, who must manage a potential letdown against a less talented opponent. After last week’s big win—the first against Arizona in the Hurley era—there might be a natural inclination to take it easy against the Cougars, who have lost five straight and 11 of its last 12 games.
ASU has shown a bad habit of playing to the level of its competition and must fight the urge to overlook Washington State, who enters the game with a NET ranking of 230.
A loss to the Cougars would be classified as a quadrant-four loss and would be a devastating blow to the Sun Devils’ chances for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
ASU head coach Bobby Hurley is not taking his next opponent lightly. In fact, he believes Washington State could present a legitimate challenge for his Sun Devil squad.
“Washington State is one of the better three-point shooting teams,” Hurley said. “They can really score it. They scored a lot of points at home against USC, and there are other numerous examples [of them putting up big numbers].”
The Sun Devils will also be short-handed this week, which could complicate matters. On Tuesday, Hurley told reporters that freshman forward Taeshon Cherry will miss both games this week, due to recurring concussion symptoms, which was re-aggravated in last Thursday’s game against Arizona.
Not having Cherry, who is one of the team’s best outside shooters, could be a significant setback for ASU, who will likely face a zone defense the next two games.
Hurley stressed that other players would need to step up in Cherry’s absence, and hinted that forward Vitaliy Shibel and wing Elias Valtonen could see a bump in minutes this week.
Although his roster is not at full strength, Hurley is optimistic about where his team stands at this point in the season. The fourth-year coach, however, understands there are no guarantees in college basketball.
“I feel good about how we’re playing the last couple of weeks,” he said. “But everything can change in a second if you don’t focus on getting better.”
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It has been a tough season for Ernie Kent and Washington State (8-14 overall, 1-8 conference), who stumble into Thursday night’s matchup mired in a terrible slump. Not only have the Cougars lost 11 of its last 12 games, but they have also gotten pummeled in Pac-12 play.
With the exception of Saturday’s nine-point loss against USC, all of Washington State’s losses in conference play have been by double digits with five of them coming by a margin of at least 18 points.
In addition to a general lack of talent, many of the Cougars’ issues can be directly attributed to its poor defense and rebounding, which are both statistically toward the bottom of the Pac-12.
On the season, Washington State’s adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked 11th in the conference and 321st nationally (out of 353 teams). In Pac-12 play, it has seemingly gotten even worse for the Cougars.
In nine conference games, they have allowed opponents to score 88.3 points per game on 54 percent shooting from the field, including nearly 43 percent from three-point range. Washington State has also struggled on the glass, where they have been out-rebounded by 8 boards per contest.
The Cougars’ poor play has even prompted some pundits to suggest Kent’s job is in serious jeopardy. Whether that is true or not, one thing is certain: it currently looks bleak in Pullman.
In an otherwise forgettable season, there have been a few positive takeaways, most notably the play of forwards Robert Franks and CJ Elleby.
Franks, who was named the Pac-12’s Most Improved Player last season, was expected to carry a heavy load this year – and he has not disappointed. The 6-foot-8 senior leads the league in scoring (21.4 per game) and ranks in the top-15 in rebounding (7.4), three-pointers made (38) and field goal percentage (51.2%).
Elleby, on the other hand, has surpassed nearly everyone’s expectations. The 6-foot-6 freshman was not heavily recruited out of Cleveland H.S. in Seattle, but he’s had a stellar rookie season. He ranks second among all Pac-12 freshmen in scoring (15.6 per game), rebounding (6.5) and three-point percentage (38.3%).
Unfortunately for Washington State, the tandem of Franks and Elleby, which is the highest scoring duo in the Pac-12, hasn’t received much help from the rest of the team. In fact, no other Cougar averages double figures in scoring.
Junior college transfers Ahmed Ali and Marvin Cannon have shown flashes throughout the season, but both have been plagued by inconsistency. Senior guard Viont’e Daniels was supposed to provide some scoring punch on the perimeter, but his final collegiate season has been somewhat of a disappointment averaging 7.1 points per game on 40 percent shooting.
Predicting Washington State’s starting five is nearly impossible considering it’s constantly in flux, but Kent typically goes ten deep with his rotation. The veteran coach likes to have fresh bodies on the court, due in large part to his team’s style of play.
The Cougars average 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, which is the third fastest tempo in the conference, according to KenPom. The only Pac-12 teams that play a faster tempo: USC and Arizona State.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (13.3 PPG, 4.9 APG) G – Ahmed Ali (8.1 PPG, 3 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16 PPG, 4.5 RPG) G – Viont’e Daniels (7.1 PPG, 2.9 APG)
G – Rob Edwards (10.6 PPG, 42.1% 3PT) F – CJ Elleby (15.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG) F – Robert Franks (21.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
F – Romello White (9.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) F – Jeff Pollard (4.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: It’s hard to imagine the Sun Devils would lose at home to Washington State, but stranger things have happened. (Remember the Princeton game?)
All things considered, ASU should have its way with Washington State, especially in the paint. The Sun Devils average a league-best 42.3 rebounds per game, which is nearly 10 more than the Cougars average per contest.
ASU also has the highest-scoring offense (79.5 points per game) in the Pac-12 and should feast on a Washington State squad that has struggled to defend all season long. The Cougars have allowed opponents to shoot 47.8 percent from the field, which ranks 327th (out of 353) in the nation.
Why Washington State Can Win: If the Cougars somehow pull off the upset, it will likely be a result of its offense, which is vastly underrated.
In fact, Washington State is one of the better shooting teams in the Pac-12. They rank second in adjusted field goal percentage (.541), first in free throw percentage (.749) and third in three-point field goal percentage (.356).
The Cougars’ offensive philosophy is not a secret. They live and die by the three, and it’s not surprising they have attempted (and made) more three-pointers than any team in the conference. Washington State’s ability to shoot the long ball could be problematic for ASU, who struggled to defend the 3-point line against Arizona last Thursday. (The Wildcats made 14-of-28 from three-point range)
Key Stat: ASU has won six of the last seven meetings in Tempe.
X-Factor: Defending the three-point line. Both teams have struggled in this department in conference play. ASU has allowed Pac-12 foes to shoot 37.2 percent from three-point range, which ranks ninth in the conference. Washington State has been even worse – they have allowed opponents to shoot 42.6 percent, which ranks dead last. It’s reasonable to expect a lot of threes will be attempted in Thursday’s contest, so defending the three-point line could play a big role in the game’s outcome.
Prediction: ASU 84, Washington State 74
Game Info:
When: 6:00 pm MST
Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Tempe, Ariz.
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 620 AM
