A gut-wrenching season of “nearly” and “almost” unveils a harsh reality for Arizona State men's basketball, now entrenched in the depths of the Big 12 standings, firmly in 15th place. ASU head coach Bobby Hurley is tasked with uplifting his team for the final seven regular-season games if they want to have a sliver of hope to stay in contention for an NCAA tournament spot.
The Sun Devils’ most recent performance encapsulated the ups and downs of the 2024-25 campaign. In a heartbreaking 111-106 double-overtime defeat against No. 12 Texas Tech, ASU competed on both ends of the floor against one of the Big 12’s premier programs. A trying Big 12 slate continues for ASU (12-12, 3-10 Big 12) when TCU (13-11, 6-7) comes to Tempe on Saturday for a critical matchup featuring two teams near the bottom of the standings. Hurley’s squad has struggled recently at Desert Financial Arena, losing five consecutive home games, with their last win in Tempe coming on Jan. 4 against last-place Colorado.
The Horned Frogs have had an inconsistent Big 12 slate thus far but have done an admirable job of beating the teams they’re expected to defeat. They boast a 12-2 home record. Their best win of the year, however, came on the road, a 75-71 victory over No. 25 Baylor on Jan. 19.
Offensively, TCU presents an underwhelming resume, with the fewest points per game (68.0) in the Big 12. Its lackluster offensive output can be attributed to inefficient shooting, particularly from outside. TCU converts just 42.2% of its field goal attempts, tied with UCF for the worst percentage in the conference. More astonishingly, its 30.8% three-point shooting is the lowest in the league.
On defense, the Horned Frogs hold a modest record. They have the seventh-best opponent scoring average (68.0) in the conference, and their scoring margin is a conference-low zero. Teams shoot 44% against TCU, but they limit opponents' three-point shooting, allowing just 30.9% from beyond the arc, the third-best rate in the Big 12.
ASU and TCU present contrasting statistics that could predict an entertaining contest. Both teams struggle with rebounding, ranking 10th (TCU) and 15th (ASU) in combined rebounds per game in the Big 12. TCU, however, is last in defensive rebounds per game with just 22.6, while ASU ranks fourth in that category with 26.2 rebounds per contest.
A more intriguing aspect is outstanding shooting, where the Sun Devils excel from beyond the arch. ASU’s ability to light teams up from the outside was on display against Texas Tech, where they made 13 three-pointers. Their season three-point percentage sits at 35.9%, the fifth-best rate in the Big 12. ASU’s volume only enhances this metric, with 218 three-pointers made, the third-most in the conference. Expect the battle from long range to play a key role in determining the winner. If ASU can maintain its hot shooting, it could spell trouble for TCU.
The Horned Frogs lack a high-octane scorer. Senior guard Noah Reynolds leads the team with just 12.5 points per game but has been more consistent as the season has progressed, scoring in double figures in 11 of 13 Big 12 games.
Reynolds' backcourt partner, sophomore Vasean Allette, has also continued to improve. He’s become more of a threat off the dribble, penetrating the paint and finding teammates. However, Allette requires a high volume of shots to score, shooting just 38.5% from the floor and 21.5% from three-point range.
The rest of TCU’s offensive core is relatively underwhelming on the stat sheet, but former ASU guard Frankie Collins has made a strong start to his time in Fort Worth. Collins played at ASU from 2022-2024, starting 66 of 67 games in his time in Tempe. In the 2023-24 season, Collins had a career year, averaging 13.8 points per game and leading the Pac-12 in steals (2.6 per game). He broke ASU’s single-season steals record with 84, surpassing the previous mark of 76 set by Fat Lever in 1982.
Collins had made an impressive start to his time at TCU, averaging 11.2 points while leading the team in assists (4.4) and steals (1.9) through his first nine games. Unfortunately, Collins was sidelined for the remainder of the season in December after undergoing surgery for a stress fracture in his left foot. He will not return for Saturday's game.
For ASU, this game is a must-win. Despite a woeful 2-8 record over their last 10 games, the Sun Devils have the tools to succeed. While their home record stands at 1-5 in conference play, TCU is just 1-6 on the road. With both teams in slumps, ASU has a chance to sneak out a home victory against a team that struggles on the road.
For ASU to secure the win, they must shoot well from outside and protect the paint. The former is more likely to happen, considering Wednesday night's thrilling performance. To protect the paint, ASU will need its five-star freshman forward, Jayden Quaintance, who averages 2.82 blocks per game. That remarkable total is the third-best in the country, establishing Quaintance as one of the nation’s premier rim protectors.
However, in Sunday's loss to Oklahoma State, the 6-foot-9 Quaintance rolled his ankle within the first 10 minutes of the game and did not return. He was ruled out for ASU's previous matchup against Texas Tech and is likely to miss Saturday's game as well.
Without Quaintance, the improved play of junior center Shawn Phillips Jr, along with a collective effort to protect the paint, will be key against one of the Big 12's most underwhelming offenses. For ASU, a home game against TCU is not only a must-win for the team’s playoff hopes but also to avoid making their inaugural Big 12 campaign a losing one.
The Saturday night clash will tip off at 6 p.m. Arizona time and will air on ESPN+.
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