Arizona State is coming off a tough loss to interstate rival Arizona, a game that saw tempers flare in the later stages. ASU struggled down in the paint against the Wildcats, losing the rebound battle 52-38 and allowing 32 points in the paint. The Sun Devils relied on their shooting to keep the game close, but once the shots weren’t falling, Arizona was able to pull away in the final minutes of the game.
Arizona State has consistently struggled to close out games against top competition in the conference, holding leads in the second half over No. 3 Iowa State and No. 11 Kansas before both teams put pressure on the ball handlers and forced turnovers at will. NCAA tournament hopes are slipping away from the Sun Devils, who were on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s list of the First Four Out.
ASU is now 3-7 in conference play but faced a tougher part of its schedule in January. Three of the Sun Devils' next four games come against teams in the bottom half of the conference in terms of record, as they host another Wildcat in Kansas State, a team that has picked up a bit of steam recently.
After starting conference play 1-6, the Wildcats are on a 3-game winning streak. The third and most recent game was a shocking result, to say the least, beating No. 3 Iowa State 80-61 in Ames, ending the Cyclones’ home winning streak of 29 consecutive games. Kansas State led 37-35 at the end of the first half, but it held Iowa State to just 27% from the field in the second half as the Wildcats pulled away in the final 20 minutes for the historic upset.
Kansas State had five different players score in double figures, as it was a win-by-committee performance. That’s been the story of the season for the Wildcats, with four players averaging 10+ points per game, but leading scorer, senior guard David N’Guessan, only averages 12.2 a game.
The Wildcats went to work this offseason in the portal, bringing in 11 newcomers, including junior guard Brendan Hausen and senior forward Coleman Hawkins. Hausen was a standout player in his two seasons at Villanova and now averages 12 points per game this year while shooting 41% from three-point range as the Wildcats' clear sharpshooter.
Hawkins was considered to be the biggest get for Kansas State after three stellar seasons with Illinois, which saw the Fighting Illini reach the Elite Eight in 2023. His veteran leadership was heavily sought after, with just three players from last year returning to the Wildcats, and he’s brought stability to Kansas State. His scoring ability is still there, with 11.2 points per game, but his 7.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists both lead the team.
As a team, Kansas State struggles immensely at the free-throw line. The Wildcats shoot just 69% from the charity stripe and only have three players who shoot better than 80%, two of whom haven’t even attempted 20 free throws. The Sun Devils are right there with Kansas State, shooting 70%, as both teams have seen this hinder their abilities to close out games in the second half.
Every week, one of the keys to ASU's game is limiting turnovers. Although the Sun Devils won the turnover battle against Arizona 13-11, five of those turnovers came in just a few minutes when the Wildcats pressed full court and got themselves back into the game after ASU started to pull away.
This has constantly been an issue, as all the pressure has gone on senior guard Alston Mason with little to no help from the other four players on the court. Against a team that forces 12.7 turnovers per game and scores 14 points a game off those turnovers, ball security is a must in order to not only build a lead but keep it.
The Wildcats are one of the hotter teams in the conference after a chaotic weekend that saw top teams like Iowa State, Kansas, and No. 7 Houston lose, and will carry immense amounts of confidence into Desert Financial Arena. If the Sun Devils can weather the storm enough to keep the game close while making minimal mistakes, they’ll be in the thick of the game and in a position to win.
Tip-off in Tempe is at 8 p.m. and the game will air on ESPN+
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