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Published May 11, 2016
Sam Cunliffe's rise in the rankings brings increased expectations
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Ralph Amsden  •  ASUDevils
Staff Writer
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@asu_rivals

Rivals' National Basketball Analyst Eric Bossi released the final 2016 Rivals150 rankings this week, and Arizona State signee Sam Cunliffe jumped 31 spots to finish as the number 36 ranked player in this year's class.

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Cunliffe's rise in the final rankings is significant for a number of reasons. Not only is it the third largest jump of any prospect in the incoming freshman class, it also places him just a few spots outside this year's crop of 26 5-star prospects- a designation that is reserved for players Bossi believes have NBA potential.

Arizona State fans that are already anxious about the Sun Devils' depth issues have been eagerly awaiting Cunliffe's arrival, and now that he's the #8 overall ranked recruit in the Pac-12, and in the top-40 in the country, they'll undoubtedly expect him to have an immediate impact on the court.

To gauge what type of impact you might expect outside of the simple availability of minutes and need for a big guard/wing player, we can look at the production of similarly ranked players over the last decade.

2006


David Lighty won a national title as part of a freshman class that also included Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. Lighty's biggest contribution as a freshman came in the NCAA tournament, where he averaged 7 points per game. He finished his Ohio State career the NCAA's all-time leader in game appearances, with 157 games played.

Jodie Meeks averaged just over 8 points per game in 45 appearances as a freshman and sophomore at Kentucky before taking over as the star of the 2008-2009 team, averaging 23.7 points per game and hitting 117 threes. Meeks was drafted in the second round of the 2009 NBA Draft, and career highlights include leading the 2013-14 Lakers in points scored.

2007

Taylor King averaged 5.5 points per game as a freshman at Duke before transferring to Villanova, and transferring again to Concordia, whom he led to the 2011 semifinal round of the NAIA championships. Has since gone on to play professionally in Canada and the U.K.

Copperyale "Manny" Harris played 98 games over three seasons for Michigan, averaging 16.1 points per game as a freshman, and finishing with a 17.0 point per game career average. Harris went unselected in the 2010 NBA draft after declaring early, but made the Cleveland Cavs roster and started 20 games over two seasons. He has not played in the league since a short stint with the Lakers in 2013-14.

2008

Mookie Jones appeared in 46 games over 4 seasons at Syracuse, but had disciplinary and injury issues that kept him from being a consistent contributer. Shot 39.7% for his career from long range. The best true wing in the class came in ranked 16 spots behind Jones in the 2008 class- Washington State commit and current Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson.

2009

Jon Hood spent 5 years at Kentucky as a human victory cigar. Despite being named Kentucky's Mr. Basketball coming out of high school, he entered into a freshman class that included the #1, #2, #22 and #23 players in the country in John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton and Eric Bledsoe. John Calipari continued to pull strong recruiting classes and Hood continued to be buried on the bench, but he never transferred out.

2010

Lorenzo Brown finished 2009 ranked #37, but he enrolled at Hargrave Military Academy for a year before heading off to North Carolina State. Brown averaged 9.3 points per game as a freshman, and after two additional seasons of scoring over 12 points per game, he declared for the 2013 NBA Draft. Brown has spent time with Minnesota, Philadelphia and Phoenix over his 3 year NBA career.

Jordan Sibert didn't get much playing time at Ohio State as a freshman, and his strongest collegiate campaign came as a senior, two years after transferring to Dayton. Sibert finished his career by leading the Flyers in scoring at 16.1 points per game, and guiding them to the 2015 Sweet 16. is currently playing in the NBDL after getting some preseason minutes with the Orlando Magic this season.

2011

Ben McLemore was forced to sit out as a freshman due to the closure of his original high school causing an issue with his transcripts, but when he did see the court in 2012-13, he led Kansas in scoring and ended up the 7th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. McLemore has spent the last 3 seasons with the Sacramento Kings, starting 190 games.

Michael Gbinije started out at Duke before transferring to Syracuse and ultimately leading them in scoring and assists as a senior. Gbinije played in all but 9 minutes of Syracuse's 2016 Final Four run, and Gbinije is projected to be a second round pick in this year's NBA Draft.

2012

Katin Reinhardt has a solid freshman season for UNLV, averaging double digits and playing nearly 30 minutes per game. Despite his early success, he transferred to USC, sat out a year, and proceded to finish 10th in the conference in three point field goals made in back to back seasons. He has since decided to grad transfer to Marquette.

2013

Jabari Bird has been a consistent contributer for Cal ever since his freshman year, where he averaged just over 8 points in 20 minutes per contest. He's averaged in double figures the last two seasons, and it's widely believed that Bird missing Cal's 2016 opening round NCAA tournament game against Hawaii with back spasms cost them what should have been a sure win. He's returing in 2016-17 for his senior season.

JaJuan Johnson has been inconsistent at times over the last three years at Marquette, but he is coming off his best year as a shooter (51%). Including transfer Katin Reinhardt, Marquette boasts five returning scorers who averaged double digits in 2015-16. Johnson may not break out as a senior, but his steady stroke could contribute to a significant tournament run.

It took Jones a while to earn his time on the court at Duke, but ever since the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon from the team, Jones has shouldered a large load. In 2015-16, Jones' junior campaign, he was third on the team in assists and steals, and fourth in scoring. With freshman PG Brandon Ingram going pro, he'll probably his minutes stay the same in 2016-17.

2014

Brandone Francis-Ramirez missed what would have been his freshman season due to academic concerns, and as a redshirt freshman he saw limited playing time. Last week he announced his intent to transfer.

2015

Kerwin Roach averaged 7.5 points in 18 minutes per game as a freshman at Texas. If he can find some consistency from game to game next season, he should see his minutes and scoring average improve.

Malichi Richardson commited to Syracuse way back in December of 2013, and when the time came, he was ready. He scored 496 points, and while he didn't shoot a high percentage from the field, he felt secure enough in his accomplishments to declare for the NBA Draft.

PJ Dozier struggled to score in his 19 minutes per game as a freshman for South Carolina, but he contributed plenty in other ways, ranking 3rd on the team in assists per game. Dozier should have an expanded role in 2016-17, as he's the third-highest returning leading scorer the Gamecocks have next year.

DJ Hogg gave Texas A&M a reliable three point shooter off the bench as a freshman. While Hogg's production trailed off toward the end of the year, he showed what he was capable of in Texas A&M's first three games, averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds, and going 10/18 from long range.

So what can be expected of Sam Cunliffe?

Obviously past performance of players on other teams (with different issues of depth and varying playing styles) presents an unreliable and inexact comparitive science, but it can establish an overall basline expectation for production in shooting guards/wings that were simlarly rated to Sam Cunliffe. Most of the players above were able to average double figures in scoring within either their first two seasons at their initial school, or after transferring. Five declared for the NBA Draft early, while two moved on after only one season of competition. Mookie Jones, Jon Hood and Brandone Francis-Hernandez' lack of production all seem to have underlying causes that hampered their ability to have the impact that the rest on this list did.

Based on his skillset, and barring a transfer or injury, Arizona State fans should expect a player rated as high as Cunliffe to contribute immediately as a freshman, and over his sophomore and junior campaigns, increase his production to a place where 13-17 points over 30 minutes becomes the norm.

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