For a second straight season, Arizona State (20-10 overall, 8-10 in Pac-12 play) finds itself slotted in the No. 8/9 matchup in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. However, unlike last season, the Sun Devil’s postseason fate may hinge on how well they perform in the opening round tilt.
Depending on which Bracketology you glance at, ASU is either comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field or firmly on the bubble and hanging on for dear life. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Sun Devils’ NCAA Tournament résumé—and how they’ll be perceived by the selection committee—it might be wise for ASU to err on the side of caution and approach this matchup as a must-win game.
A victory could possibly provide the additional boost needed to ensure their inclusion in the Big Dance. However, that’s easier said than done, especially for a squad that has struggled in recent weeks.
The Sun Devils ended the regular season losing four of its final five games, including the season finale in heartbreaking fashion to Stanford on Saturday afternoon. After trailing by as many as 19 points early in the second half, ASU mounted a furious comeback and had multiple opportunities in the final minute to take the lead, but ultimately fell short.
With a quick turnaround, however, the Sun Devils have no time to dwell on their senior day disappointment. Instead, they must focus on their first-round opponent, Colorado, who they’ve already played twice this season.
In the first matchup in Boulder on Jan. 4, Colorado upset then-ranked No. 4 ASU 90-81 in overtime. In that game, the Sun Devils did not shoot well (35.5 percent overall, and 26.5 percent from 3-point range) and were out-rebounded by seven. They also had trouble slowing down the Buffaloes’ perimeter players, who seemingly got into the lane at will against ASU’s suspect defense.
The return game in Tempe was a few weeks later, and the Sun Devils exacted revenge on their Pac-12 foe. In what turned out to be one of its better performances in conference play, ASU erupted for 48 second-half points en route to an 80-66 win. They shot marginally better from the field (42.2 percent) but were once again out-rebounded by the Buffs (44-34). The keys to ASU’s victory: better defense, 10 three-pointers made in the second half and 17 forced turnovers.
Since the last meeting, both ASU and Colorado have been on shaky ground. They each endured a 3-game losing streak in recent weeks, and both finished the regular season losing four of its final five games.
The inconsistent play, however, is not a complete surprise from Colorado (16-4, 8-10), who is in the midst of a youth movement this season under coach Tad Boyle. For most of the season, seven of the 10 players in the Buffs’ regular rotation were underclassmen—with five of them being freshmen.
One freshman in particular, McKinley Wright IV, is the foundation of Colorado’s strong perimeter attack. Much like ASU, the Buffs are heavily reliant on their guard play, and Wright is the engine that drives this young team. He is adept at getting into the lane and creating offense for himself or others. The dynamic rookie leads the team in points, assists, and steals. He was also recently named to the All-Pac-12 Freshman Team.
Flanking the freshman in the backcourt is a couple of upperclassmen—George King and Namon Wright. King is a strong 6-foot-6 wing who can impact the game on both ends of the floor. The fifth-year senior is also one of the best rebounding guards in the Pac-12. Wright—no relation to McKinley—is a smooth 6-foot-5 wing that provides scoring and athleticism to Colorado’s backcourt. The redshirt junior, who transferred from Missouri, scored 19 points in the first meeting of the season.
The Buffs’ frontcourt is long and versatile, but also young and inexperienced. They start two freshmen—Dallas Walton and Tyler Bey. A legitimate 7-footer, Walton is long and possesses good athleticism for his size. He is offensively raw but makes an impact on the defensive end with his shot blocking ability. Bey is an undersized (6-7) but active four-man who has a nose for the ball. Due to his toughness, work ethic and defensive instincts, he is often compared to former Colorado standout (and current Oklahoma City wing) Andre Roberson.
The Buffs have a solid bench and typically go nine deep with their rotation—after the season-ending injury to reserve Deleon Brown a few weeks ago.
Senior Dominique Collier anchors the second unit. The steady combo guard provides leadership and poise off the bench. He was recently named co-Sixth Man of the Year, along with ASU reserve guard Remy Martin.
Another bench player who emerged for Colorado this year was 6-foot-10 Lucas Siewert. The stretch four-man finished the season on a tear, averaging 14 points and 6.7 rebounds in the last three games. His versatility and ability to knock down the 3-ball (44.8 percent from beyond the arc) make him a difficult matchup.
Rounding out Colorado’s rotation is a couple of freshman guards D’Shawn Schwartz and Lazar Nikolic. Neither of them puts up eye-popping stats, but standing at 6-foot-7, they provide length—and a different dimension—to the Buffs’ backcourt.
Probable Starters:
G – Tra Holder (18.6 PPG, 3.5 APG) / G – McKinley Wright IV (14.2 PPG, 5.3 APG)
G – Shannon Evans (16.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) / G – Namon Wright (10.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G – Kodi Justice (12.5 PPG, 2.7 RPG) / G – George King (12.8 PPG, 8 RPG)
F – Mickey Mitchell (5.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) / F – Tyler Bey (5.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
F – Romello White (10.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) / C – Dallas Walton (5.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: Each season when March rolls around, we are reminded of the importance of senior leadership in college basketball. Experience is paramount, especially in the backcourt, as the game becomes increasingly determined by guard play. Luckily for ASU, they have three really good ones in Shannon Evans, Tra Holder, and Kodi Justice.
This matchup may also be one of the few times when the Sun Devils could have a distinct advantage in the paint against a Pac-12 opponent. Don’t be surprised to see ASU attempt to establish forward Romello White on the low block early, and often.
The Sun Devils might be wise to apply extra ball pressure during Wednesday’s contest. Colorado was the most turnover-prone team in Pac-12 play. They averaged a league-worst 14.2 turnovers per contest.
Why Colorado Can Win: The Buffs’ collection of perimeter players is nothing to scoff at either. McKinley Wright is one of the top freshmen in the country, while George King and Dominique Collier provide valuable senior leadership. Also don’t forget about Namon Wright, who is capable of going for 20 points on any given day.
On the defensive end, Colorado has been one of the most impressive teams in Pac-12 play. Their stingy defense allowed only 71.7 points per game during league play, and they limited opponents to a league-worst 42.2 percent shooting from the floor.
The Buffs are also one of the better rebounding teams in the conference. During Pac-12 play, they had a rebounding margin of plus-2.3, which was among the best in the conference.
Key Stat: Since the conference resumed its postseason event in 2002, ASU has a 4-15 record in the Pac-12 (formerly Pac-10) Tournament. During that stretch, only once has ASU won more than a single game in the tournament. It occurred in 2008 when a James Harden-led team advanced to the finals, before falling to USC.
X-Factor: Will ASU’s senior guards rise to the occasion? Throughout the season, the trio of Evans, Holder and Justice has been the catalyst behind the program’s resurrection. Now—more than ever—the Sun Devils need strong performances from its group of seniors. ASU desperately needs a bounce-back win to bolster their tournament résumé.
Final Score Prediction: ASU 78, Colorado 72
Game Info:
When: 1:00 pm MST
Where: T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, Nev.
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 620 AM
