Arizona State looks to halt a two-game skid, let alone their road game woes as they travel to Eugene to face a Duck squad that has yet to notch a conference win in 2016. On paper, perhaps a golden opportunity for the Sun Devils but what challenges will await them on Saturday afternoon? Joe Healey details ASU’s upcoming matchup.
Oregon Offense
For the second consecutive year, Oregon dipped to the FCS ranks for its starting quarterback. After pulling Vernon Adams from Eastern Washington a year ago, this year’s edition was found in Dakota Prukop from Montana State.
Prukop started the first five games for the Ducks, throwing for an average of 234.6 yards per game with eight touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 31 yards per game, but after a 2-3 start concluding with an 18-point loss to Washington State, Oregon opted to place true freshman Justin Herbert into the starting lineup.
A Eugene native, Herbert became the first true freshman to start at quarterback for Oregon since 1983, and after a rocky debut in which Washington downed the Ducks by a score of 70-21, Herbert showed measures of growth in a resilient loss at California last week in which he tied the school record with six touchdown passes.
In his two starts, Herbert averages 218.5 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
Though he isn’t on pace for the type of seasons he had as a freshman and as a sophomore, running back Royce Freeman remains an ever-present threat on the ground. Impacted throughout the season by nagging injuries, Freeman has still rushed for 523 yards and seven touchdowns in six games, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
In addition to Freeman, Tony Brooks-James has provided a burst with 440 yards and seven touchdowns and a dynamic average of 7.1 yards per carry.
Different from your typical Oregon quarterback, Herbert hasn’t shown to be a spectacular rushing threat as he has totaled 66 net yards on 16 carries on the year, though he did total 56 yards with a long of 26 last week against Cal.
At receiver, Oregon’s two clear primary targets are Charles Nelson (38-369-2) and Darren Carrington (22-326-3), players ASU fans should know all too well from last season. Dwayne Stanford (13-175-1) also has been a factor, while Phoenix native Jalen Brown (4-41-2) has come on of late.
Tight end Pharaoh Brown has been an incredible “feel good” comeback story as he missed the final few games of 2014 and all of 2015 due to a serious injury that was feared to be career-threatening. Perhaps the top tight end in the Pac-12 when at full health, Brown has caught 15 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns this season.
A point to note is Oregon starts four redshirt freshmen on its offensive line: LT Brady Aiello, LG Shane Lemieux, C Jake Hanson and RT Calvin Throckmorton along with senior RG Cameron Hunt.
Oregon Offense Summary
Though this offense isn’t at the level of recent Duck teams that have boasted unstoppable offenses on a national scale, it is still solid as Oregon ranks 18th nationally in run offense (248.4) and 20th in total offense (488.4).
Herbert showed last week that he has the potential to be a big-play quarterback, and the duo of Royce Freeman – even if under 100% -- and Tony Brooks-James will challenge the Sun Devil defense to a heavy degree.
Oregon Defense
The Ducks’ 4-3 defense under first-year coordinator and former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke features Henry Mondeaux and Justin Hollins at defensive end with Rex Manu and Austin Maloata at the two tackle positions.
Hollins leads the linemen with his 27 tackles including 3.0 for loss with one sack, while Maloata isn’t far behind with 23 tackles including 3.0 for loss with 1.5 sacks. Mondeaux is also at a similar level with his 22 tackles including 3.5 for loss with one sack.
A.J. Hotchkins starts at MIKE linebacker surrounded by Jimmie Swain at WILL and Troy Dye, a legitimate candidate for Pac-12 Conference Defensive Freshman of the Year, at SAM.
The true freshman Dye leads Oregon with 44 tackles including 7.5 for loss with 3.0 sacks and an interception, while Swain and Hotchkins both have tallied 33 tackles on the year.
In the secondary, Tyree Robinson and Ugo Amadi start at cornerback with Reggie Daniels and true freshman Brenden Schooler at safety.
Schooler ranks second on the team with 40 tackles and has a team-best two interceptions, while Robinson ranks third on the team with 38 tackles and has also registered four pass breakups. Amadi has 23 tackles and three pass breakups to his name this year and Daniels has posted 20 tackles.
Arrion Springs also sees a great deal of time in the secondary and has chipped in 32 tackles including 3.0 for loss on the year.
Oregon Defense Summary
Call it a learning curve due to youth or call it just flat out poor play – Oregon’s defense is BAD.
The numbers do not lie, as the Ducks rank dead last (128th) nationally in total defense (538.6), 126th in scoring defense (43.3), 120th in rush defense (248.4) and 118th in pass defense (290.1). Oddly, Oregon has allowed exactly as many yards and touchdowns as it has run for (1,739 and 21), and for a dominant run team like the Ducks that is a scary allowance on defense.
ASU’s offense, however, will need to do its job, especially if Manny Wilkins continues to be largely limited or unavailable. Overall, this is the poorest defense ASU will have faced all year – yes, poorer than Texas Tech – so the opportunities are there if the Sun Devils are able to execute.
Oregon Special Teams
Oregon does about as little kicking (field goals and extra points) as any team in the country, as Aidan Schneider has attempted just three field goals all year. To his credit, he has made them all, with a long of 41 yards.
Punter Ian Wheeler averages 38.6 yards on his 35 attempts and as indicated by his numbers doesn’t boast a great deal of power as his long is just 49 yards.
Charles Nelson remains one of the most dangerous kick returners in the conference and averages 27.6 yards on 23 returns with a 100-yard touchdown return to his credit. Most impressive is that Nelson has such a high yard average with such a large total returns – no player in the nation ranked in the nation’s top-93 in kickoff returns has as many attempts as Nelson. Nelson also averages 20.2 yards on his five punt returns, while Darren Carrington has also returned punts this year.
Overall Summary
There are definite advantages ASU can seize in this game, especially if its run game and run defense can play to its potential. The million dollar question is whether the Sun Devils can shake the road game monkey off their back along with the losing streak to Oregon that dates back to 2004. To exorcise both demons at once would provide a major boost to what has become a dimmed outlook for the remainder of the 2016 season.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Run. And Run. And Run.
When you have either a banged-up starting quarterback or a true freshman under center against the team that ranks 120th nationally in rush defense, the recipe is simple. ASU’s run game showed some life last week against Washington State after multiple disappointments and against the porous Duck run defense, the Devils should be able to assert themselves on the ground. It remains to be seen how much the Sparky formation will be used, but regardless the origin, consistency in the run game is an absolute necessity.
Home D, Not Road D
ASU’s Jekyll and Hyde nature of its defense the past four games as a clear common denominator as things have been generally solid at home – and spectacular against the run – but very poor on the road. The efforts the Sun Devils gave against UCLA and Washington State compared to USC and Colorado are night-and-day, however, the same can be said for just about all home games compared to road games for the Devils dating back to the end of the 2014 season. If ASU can stand strong against the run and force Herbert to be the make-or-break factor for the Ducks, the Devils will have done their job defensively.
No Momentum
When ASU faced USC in the Coliseum earlier this season, a beaten down Trojan team had a generally new freshman starting quarterback and was able to completely seize momentum against the Sun Devils and rip off a blowout victory.
This weekend’s game has some similarities in terms of a young quarterback at the helm for a traditional power suffering uncharacteristic struggles. Against USC, ASU allowed momentum to swiftly and distinctly shift to the home teams at an early point and that pendulum never swung back to the Sun Devils. Saturday it is crucial for ASU not to allow big momentum plays in the early stage of the game – and to force stops of its own – to prevent the Autzen Stadium crowd and the young Duck team to gain quick energy.
Familiar Faces
· Oregon DB Reggie Daniels (Chandler Hamilton), WR Devon Allen (Phoenix Brophy Prep), RB Kani Benoit (Phoenix Thunderbird), WR Jalen Brown (Phoenix Mountain Pointe) and DL Jalen Jelks (Phoenix Desert Vista) are all Arizona natives. ASU’s Frederick Gammage and Owen Rogers attended Brophy Prep and Drew McIntyre attended Desert Vista.
· Oregon assistant coaches Matt Lubick and Tom Osborne previously coached at ASU
· Oregon DB Ronnie Rust, LB La’mar Winston, Jr. and DB Brady Breeze attended Portland (Ore.) Central Catholic HS, as did ASU OL Connor Humphreys
· Oregon P Blake Maimone attended Westlake (Calif.) Oaks Christian HS as did ASU’s Gil’Scott Jackson and Carlos Mendoza
· Oregon DL Gary Baker attended Upland (Calif.) High School, as did ASU’s James Jonson
