There’s no quarterback who has struck more fear into Arizona State head coach Todd Graham while running the “Air Raid” offense than Case Keenum. Texas Tech’s signal caller Patrick Mahomes though could be a close second.

Keenum, the former Houston quarterback who retired as the NCAA all-time leader in completions (1,546), passing yards (19,217) and touchdowns (155), ran the scheme about as efficiently as could be, including a 40-for-60 performance with 524 yards and three touchdowns in a 46-45 win over Tulsa on Nov. 7, 2009.

The coach of that Tulsa squad? Todd Graham.

The Sun Devil coach will face a quarterback on Saturday who he sees as a potential heir to the greatness of the “Air Raid” scheme in Texas Tech junior Patrick Mahomes II.

“[Keenum] was the best I’ve ever faced in the Air Raid, and [Mahomes] is in the ballpark with him,” Graham said. “I’m not ever going to say anybody was better than [Keenum], but he is really, really good. [Mahomes] is a guy that’s got a great understanding of the system, and he’s big. He’s 230-something pounds, 6-foot-3, and he just flicks it and can throw it 40 yards like that…He’s a special quarterback.”

Now, Graham has been prone to hyperbole in his career – he once made the Keenum comparison in style to former ASU quarterback Mike Bercovici (Bercovici, while productive at ASU, obviously didn’t play at Keenum’s level).

So why not look at what the rest of the staff had to say?

From defensive backs coach TJ Rushing: “I think he’s almost the college version of Brett Favre, you know? A gunslinger that prolongs the play and can make any throw at any time, off-balance, he’s a big-time arm talent.”

The Favre comparison has been thrown around the program, as redshirt sophomore safety Armand Perry and defensive coordinator Keith Patterson agreed with the grade.

But then Patterson added another wrinkle to the comparisons.

“He kind of plays football like Magic Johnson played point guard.”

His rationale: “The other night, he throws a no-look pass, looking to the sideline and throwing to the middle of the field. He’s extremely talented and very difficult to get down…He just has that quarterback sense where he feels that pressure and has this unique ability to get back outside of containment when he does.”

When looking at the tape, it’s clear that Patrick Mahomes brings just about everything ASU should fear most when looking at a quarterback. He has size, mobility, arm strength and an uncanny ability to improvise that’s been built into the offense by head coach and play-caller Kliff Kingsbury, a former Tech quarterback himself, runs among the purest forms of Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” scheme.

The playbook is simple and relies a lot on Mahomes’ ability to read a situation and be on the same page as his receivers while adapting on the fly.

This is a pretty basic empty set in the first quarter against Oklahoma State, which is what a large chunk of Texas Tech’s system is based in. Each receiver has a set route, except for Mahomes’ first read, Jakeem Grant (sitting in the slot on the right side of the formation). Both Mahomes and Grant have to read the defensive coverage, deciding whether the route will turn into a deep post against man coverage or if he will sit in a gap against zone.

The Cowboys get pressure on Mahomes, who times stepping up in the pocket well and seems to have enough room to run for a first down on third down and eight. He does see two defenders (marked in green) within range of making the tackle, then picks his head up and gets a throw off on the run.

Both Mahomes and Grant recognized zone on the play, meaning Grant has plenty of room around him as Mahomes improvises. Mahomes finds him, getting enough for a first down and a lot more.

“It’s him and the wide receivers,” Rushing said. “They all end up on the same page a lot of the time, and it’s interesting because even though you’re disguising him and they’re going tempo you would think that would throw them off, but they do a great job. You can tell they get lots of reps on it.”

Mahomes’ ability to extend plays challenges any secondary, forcing a defensive back to maintain their coverage throughout a play and cover someone multiple times on one rep.

“Never ease up,” Rushing said in the meeting room. “Never back off coverage. Even if you have him covered up, [Mahomes] is going to prolong plays and you have to cover him twice, sometimes even cover him three times. You have to stay on the coverage, stay with your dudes and be body on body.”

The Tech quarterback also provides a dangerous option as a runner, where he ran for 456 net yards last year with 10 touchdowns.

He shows this in the fourth quarter of that Oklahoma State game. The offense lines up in 20 personnel (two running backs, no tight ends) and runs a counter-style play-action fake with the two running backs. Even on first down, Mahomes recognizes the situation and sees the first down marker.

He improvises and takes off, lumbering through and seeing the space in front of him and first-down territory (as shown in yellow) move the chains before going down.

We just mentioned the counter look, which plays much into what Tech tries to do with its offense – go side-to-side as quickly and as often as possible to spread out a defense before you take your shot over the top.

Here they ran it last year against Kansas State. Mahomes starts under center – something Kingsbury does more than most ‘Air Raid’ schemes with a man to the left and trips right. The left side receiver starts in motion for what looks to be a wide receiver run, which Mahomes fakes as the blocking scheme leans to the right of the formation. Mahomes pitches to Washington, who carries it down the left side on a counter for a touchdown. That has remained the same in the running game despite the loss of DeAndre Washington to the NFL. His replacement, Justin Stockton, has always been more of a home run threat and will continue to do so. While they may not run as much, the will find other ways to replicate it.

Junior linebacker DJ Calhoun wasn’t worried about Texas Tech as a running threat against a stout ASU front seven, even with the uncertain status of Salamo Fiso, Christian Sam, and Marcus Ball.

“It’s a big test because our biggest focus on defense is stopping the passing game,” Calhoun said. “We know we’re good up front and can stop the run, but we’ve got new defensive backs, Armand Perry’s back, Kareem Orr’s back. It’s all just different and that’s what we need to focus on.”

Patterson said Tech doesn’t need to run the ball in order to accomplish the same purpose.

“To me, every time they snap the ball and throw it out to the perimeter, that’s a run play for them,” Patterson said. “A lot of underneath bubble screens, hitch screens, running back swing screens. Then they get you chasing the ball, chasing the ball here and then throwing screens back over here to the weak side. They probably run and execute screens as well as anybody in the country.”

Added Graham: “It is very true to the Air Raid. It goes really fast, they’ll screen you from sideline to sideline, roll this way and throw it back over here. It’s a really different type of football from what you normally play.”

Tech gets the ball out quickly often, as shown in the fourth quarter of the Oklahoma State game. With time running down, Mahomes executes a simple hitch on third down.

Texas Tech lines up in the pistol – another common Kingsbury formation – in 10 personnel, meaning that there’s one running back and four receivers on the field. Mahomes get the ball out in a second, as highlighted in the film, which presents a troubling option for a blitz-happy ASU defense.

“Not too many people can get to the quarterback in a second and a half, so [conservative coverage] is probably going to be the average this week,” Patterson said.

Mahomes has holes, just as does the Texas Tech offense as a whole. For one, they have three new faces on the starting offensive line. Patterson tried to diminish their impact due to the quickness with which the ball comes out of Mahomes’ hand, but if there’s a breakdown it could lead to some critical sacks and negative plays.

The defense should also get the opportunity to take advantage of low-percentage throws, as Mahomes has developed a tendency of taking unnecessary risks. Much like the player he was compared to in Favre, he can commit his fair share of turnovers as well.

“You hope that he takes the unnecessary risk and our guy is in a position where he can get it and we come down with the ball,” Rushing said. “That’s a huge emphasis with us every week – takeaways – and that’s something that we preach. Hopefully, we can get a few of those Saturday.”

There’s no getting around the fact that Texas Tech will pick up chunk yards and put up points come Saturday, but for the Sun Devils to remain in this one they’ll have to be opportunistic and force them into as many negative situations as possible.