Arizona State (11-8, 5-3 Pac 12) began their last ever Pac-12 Northwest road trip with a lopsided 80-61 loss against Oregon (14-5, 6-2). The Ducks got hot in the second half, shooting 69.2 percent from the floor, extinguishing the Sun Devils’ solid first-half performance. An hour up north in Corvallis, Oregon State (10-9, 2-6) upset Arizona for the first time under Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd, 83-80, with a buzzer-beating three-point basket. The Beavers enter this contest with a good deal of momentum, welcoming a Sun Devil squad that is still licking its wounds, having lost three of their last four games.
Oregon State is led by Wayne Tinkle, who is in his tenth season in Corvallis. Tinkle is the same coach who led the Beavers to the Elite Eight in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Yet, in his tenure, Oregon State earned only one more NCAA tournament berth in 2016.
Preceding last night’s upset win, Oregon State was struggling mightily, recording a mere one conference win, which came at home against USC. The Beavers also came off dreadful performances against the mountain schools on the road, losing by 27 against Utah and 33 against Colorado, the same two teams ASU has beaten at home.
Nonetheless, their shocking result versus Arizona was a testament to how well the Beavers play at Gill Coliseum. This year, Oregon State has only lost two games at home (Stanford and UCLA), but in statistical terms, they shoot 38.7 percent from two-point range on the road versus 52.2 percent at home. Furthermore, three-point shooting numbers at home register at 39.4 percent, contrasting their 30.4 percent on the road.
Leading the offensive charge for the Beavers is the first of a two-part sophomore duo in Jordan Pope. Pope, a 6 ‘2 guard from Oakley, California, leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.7 points and scores a 113.7 offensive rating, according to the Torvik statistical site. Pope is the primary ball handler for the Beavers as well. His deft shooting ability was on full display against Arizona, not only scoring a career-high 31 points but also converting 5-8 from three-point range, including the game-winning jumper, and his success from that range was part of an eye-popping 60 percent team performance beyond the arc that nearly tripled Arizona’s 21.4 percent display from beyond the arc.
The second piece of that sophomore tandem is 6 ‘9, 220-pound forward Tyler Bilodeau, who is plenty agile on both sides of the floor for someone with his frame. Bilodeau averages 13.2 points per game and is second on the team behind Pope. The forward is somewhat reminiscent of ASU forward Bryant Selebangue, as Bilodeau is one inch taller and five pounds heavier. The noticeable difference between the two is Bilodeau is a much more polished finisher, shooting 71.4% at the rim (“close 2”) and 49.4 percent from right under the arc (“long 2”), according to Torvik.
6 ‘4 senior guard Dexter Akanno is a veteran contributor who is the complement guard to Pope in the usual Beaver starting lineup. Akanno averages 11.2 points per game and 2.9 rebounds per game and has shown to be the ideal secondary ball handler when Pope draws the natural defensive attention; however, he’s nowhere near the same caliber of shooter.
A quiet impact off the bench can be found with freshman forward Thomas Ndong, who carries a 6’10 frame, and although he only averages 9.8 minutes and 1.8 points per game, his size creates a challenging defensive presence. Ndong has also shown the ability to shoot the three, as he is currently 44.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Defensively, Oregon State has shown the ability to fluctuate between playing man and zone defense. Multiple times in the Arizona game, the Beavers started in a man-to-man, then switched into a 3-2 zone, forcing Arizona to find the pockets and shoot longer shots. The visitors were adversely affected, as evidenced by their 21.4 percent shooting from a three-point range.
Therefore, ASU can expect the same defensive approach by the hosts on Saturday night and will end up greatly improving on their 4-17 shooting from beyond the arc (1-7 in the second half) to not fall into the same trap as Arizona did. Undoubtedly, Oregon State played the game of their lives against Arizona as they’re just ranked 159th in overall defensive adjusted efficiency, according to Torvik.
On the bright side for the Sun Devils, Oregon State does not boast a significant size advantage, even though they have an imposing 6’10, 287-pound frontcourt player in KC Ibekwe, who conversely lacks the athletic ability ASU’s counterpart has. Driving the ball could get Ibekwe in foul trouble and contribute to opening the lane for the ASU guards.
Needless to say that, defensively for the Sun Devils, it all starts and probably ends with effectively defending Pope. It was apparent multiple times against Arizona that if the ball could not get to Pope, the shot clock would wind down, forcing tougher shots for the Beavers. Frankie Collins will have his hands full with this assignment, but the AS point guard has shown his prowess as an elite defender. Other guards like Jamiya Neal, Adam Miller, and possibly Braelon Green could be called upon to contain the Beavers’ star player.
Another flaw that was seen in Oregon State’s game was the response to defensive pressure, especially in the full-court press. Much like taking away Pope, when Arizona played aggressive man-to-man, the Beavers seemed to have a hard time moving the ball, resulting at times in rushed possessions and led to some turnovers Arizona was able to take advantage of. Defensive aggression and fast break points have proven to be a staple of ASU’s game plan, and this is one aspect that favors the Sun Devils and has to be prominent as it will be vital for a road victory.
With a win, ASU will once again have the share of first place in the Pac-12 as they did prior to the Oregon loss. Their defensive effort will have to be in sharp contrast to what they’ve shown in the second half against Oregon, especially against an Oregon State team that is very confident in their offensive abilities on their home court. ASU’s offensive efficiency from medium to long range should put them in a good spot to earn a much-needed precious Pac-12 road victory and road split.
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