Arizona Preview
Much like last year, Arizona State enters the Territorial Cup knowing a win will guarantee them postseason play. Unlike 2015 though, the Sun Devils' matchup with their archrivals seemingly represents their last chance to secure a bowl berth. Joe Healey takes a look at the challenges and the opportunities that Arizona will present.
Arizona Offense
As much as fans from either school would never want to be compared to their rival, there have been quite a few parallels between the Sun Devils and Wildcats in 2016, starting with a lack of health and stability at quarterback.
Like ASU, the Wildcats have started a total of three quarterbacks through the first 11 games. After Anu Solomon started the season opener, Brandon Dawkins stepped in to replace the injured junior and a few games later Dawkins had to be temporarily be replaced by true freshman Khalil Tate. Solomon returned to the starting lineup last week but is generally expected not to play – or at least not start – against ASU Friday.
In all, Dawkins has started eight games this season and has appeared in nine total contests with 1,271 passing yards with seven touchdowns and six interceptions. A much more proficient rusher than passer, Dawkins has team highs of 761 yards on 119 carries with eight touchdowns, making him the top rushing quarterback in the Pac-12 Conference and the seventh-best rushing quarterback in the FBS.
Sun Devil fans surely remember Dawkins as he saw the first substantial action of his college career in last year’s rivalry showdown in Tempe, stepping after starter Jerrard Randall was unable to ignite the Wildcat offense. In that game, Dawkins completed 16-of-30 passes for 305 yards with two touchdowns but also two interceptions returned for touchdowns and added 78 net rush yards on 21 carries with a touchdown.
Despite the game experience in a rough environment, Dawkins has not progressed substantially as a sophomore as he only has three games with more than 200 passing yards including a season-high 243 against Utah. On the ground, he has been much more dangerous as he has two 100-yard rushing efforts and three more with at least 75 yards.
In his past four game appearances, Dawkins’ passing high is 116 yards against Stanford.
The fall of Anu Solomon has been quite a bit tragic, as his redshirt freshman season was completely spectacular as he threw for 3,793 yards with 28 touchdowns with 291 rushing yards and two scores helping to guide Arizona to the Pac-12 south title, a Fiesta Bowl appearance, and a 10-4 final record.
As a sophomore, injuries cost Solomon two starts – including last year’s matchup with ASU – and limited him in other games and Arizona fell to a 7-6 record as he threw for 2,667 yards with 20 touchdowns.
Solomon began the year as the starting quarterback and threw for 213 yards in the opening loss to BYU but missed six games thereafter due to injury. Since returning, Solomon has thrown no more than 12 passes in the four games he’s played. As a whole, Solomon has thrown for just 462 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in 2016.
True freshman Khalil Tate was slated to redshirt before injuries forced him into action in the season’s fifth game and two games later he started against USC but completed just 7-of-18 passes for 58 yards with an interception. Tate has been a weapon on the ground, as he totaled 39 carries for 184 yards with a touchdown in his first three game appearances. However, the past four games Tate has only rushed 10 total times.
Reserves Matt Morin and Zach Werlinger have also been pressed into emergency quarterback reps this season.
Injuries have also completely derailed Arizona’s running back depth, starting with former 1,000-yard rusher Nick Wilson who has only appeared in five games. Additionally, impact freshman J.J. Taylor only appeared in four games. Additionally, second-leading returning rusher from 2015 Orlando Bradford was dismissed from the program after two games.
Similar to his classmate Solomon, Wilson has had his career take a series of unfortunate turns since his freshman season of 2014 in which he rushed for 1,375 yards and 16 touchdowns. Last season, Wilson missed four games and was limited in three others and was held to just 725 rushing yards and in 2016 has just 320 yards on 55 carries.
Due to the depleted running back depth, senior receiver Samajie Grant took over as the primary tailback in game eight against Stanford. In four games in the role, Grant has totaled 285 yards on 55 carries with three touchdowns including 113 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries against Colorado.
Grant’s new role has generally taken him out of the passing game, as in the four games at tailback he has caught only three passes for -4 yards despite the fact that in total, the fourth year contributor has 145 career receptions to his credit including his work this year.
Behind Grant, junior Zach Green is the primary running back reserve and has 63 carries for 246 yards and one touchdown. Prior to this season, Green only had registered 14 career carries across his freshman and sophomore seasons.
Arizona also lists a fullback on its depth chart and includes former linebacker Jamardre Cobb and former quarterback Matt Morin.
At receiver, veterans Nate Phillips and Trey Griffey are joined by big play sophomore Shun Brown as the primary pass targets.
Phillips, a Chandler native with 151 career receptions entering this matchup, has a team-high 31 catches as well as 346 receiving yards and one touchdown. Phillips also has registered a catch in 44 consecutive games as he enters his final collegiate game this Friday.
The team leader in receiving yards, Brown has 521 yards on 29 catches with three touchdowns and ranks second in the Pac-12 behind Washington’s Chico McClatcher with his 18.0 yards per catch average.
Griffey ranks second on the team in receiving yards (382) and third in receptions (23) while adding two touchdowns. Former four-star prospect Cam Denson has just 15 catches for 242 yards and two touchdowns in his first season at receiver after spending his first two at cornerback.
Including his work while at tailback, Grant has 22 catches for 247 yards with three touchdowns this season but as noted earlier his role as a passing target has become nearly nonexistent.
Left to right, the Wildcat offensive line figures to start tackle Layth Friekh, either guard Freddie Tagaloa or Christian Bottcher, center Nathan Eldridge, guard Jacob Alsadek and tackle Gerhard de Beer.
Like many positions on the roster, the offensive line has suffered from injury issues as Friekh and Eldridge are the only two to have started all 11 games. Alsadek and de Beer have started eight, Boettcher seven, Tagaloa six and Cody Creason three.
Arizona Offense Summary
Usually, a prominent rushing team, though the Wildcats still have succeeded on the ground there is no traditional type of running threat such as Ka’Deem Carey or Nick Wilson as a freshman. That said, ASU will still need to be mindful of the scrambling ability of Dawkins and the athleticism of Grant, with the ability to win battles at the line of scrimmage and maintain a sense of discipline in containing Dawkins will be keys to limiting Arizona on the ground.
Though the Wildcats have tenured receivers in Phillips and Griffey – as well as Grant when used in the role – and a downfield threat in Brown, Arizona hasn’t shown an ability to properly utilize these weapons as the ‘Cats haven’t thrown for more than 188 yards as a team in any of the past five games.
As battered and beleaguered as ASU’s nationally dismal pass defense is and has been the past two years, Arizona provides the least significant threat through the air that the Devils have faced all year. That said, ASU has made average quarterbacks seem like All-Americans, so time will tell if Dawkins can repeat his 300-plus passing yardage effort from last year’s Territorial Cup showdown.
Arizona Defense
As damaged as the Wildcats have been on offense due to injuries, the same can be said for their defense as Arizona has nearly run through its entire two-deep by starting a grand total of 21 different players on defense throughout the first 11 games.
Altogether, only three Wildcats have started all 11 games in end Justin Belknap and defensive backs Dane Cruikshank and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles.
For Friday, the depth chart is listed as Belknap at end with Parker Zellers at nose and Sani Fuimaono at tackle.
Zellers shares the team high of 3.0 sacks as part of his 11 total tackles, while Fuimaono has posted 17 tackles and Belknap has registered 14 stops.
Either DeAndre’ Miller or John Kenny will start at the “Stud” position with former California transfer Michael Barton at Mike and Paul Magloire at Will.
Magloire ranks second on the team with 67 tackles including 5.5 for loss with 2.5 sacks, while Barton is tied for third on the team with his 57 tackles including a team-best 7.0 for loss and a share of the team lead of 3.0 sacks. Kenny has 38 tackles on the year, while Miller has 15 tackles including 5.0 for loss with 3.0 sacks in eight games.
In the secondary, Tellas Jones or Tristan Cooper will start at Spur, Flannigan-Fowles at Bandit, Isaiah Hayes at free safety and Cruikshank and Jace Whittaker at cornerback.
Flannigan-Fowles leads the team with 74 tackles and shares the team high of two interceptions with Cruikshank who also adds 57 tackles. Hayes has posted 35 tackles, Whittaker has 33 tackles and a team-high 10 pass breakups, while Jones has 28 tackles but has missed three games thus far. Cooper has posted 32 tackles in 10 games this year.
Arizona Defense Summary
There must be something in the state’s water supply as similar to the Sun Devils, the Wildcats have had defensive woes as poor as any team in the nation in a handful of categories.
In all, the Wildcats rank 120th nationally in scoring defense (38.6) and 127th nationally in passing touchdowns allowed (31). However, the Sun Devils can’t revel too much in the misery as ASU ranks 119th nationally in scoring defense and 128th in pass touchdowns allowed (32).
Arizona also ranks last in the Pac-12 and 92nd nationally in interceptions (seven) and ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in total defense (467.3), rush defense (200.9) and pass defense (266.4).
On top of – or more specifically, a reason for – the defensive concerns is the tremendous lack of continuity among Arizona’s defensive personnel. Altogether, though ASU has had its offensive struggles during much of its five-game losing streak, opportunities for yards and points should surface with regularity in Tucson.
Arizona Special Teams
Arizona has provided no threat in the return games as the Wildcats rank 103rd in the nation in punt return average (4.67) and 123rd nationally in kick return average (17.19).
The kick and punt coverages for both teams feature some unique variances as ASU ranks 12th nationally and first in the Pac-12 in punt return defense (3.42) but last in the league and 127th nationally in kickoff coverage (27.24). The Wildcats rank 106th in the nation in punt return defense (11.7) but have a much better ranking against kickoffs by standing 36th nationally (18.79).
On an individual scale, DaVonte’ Neal (six returns, 20.5 avg.) and Tyrell Johnson (nine returns, 15.4 avg.) have been the primary kick returners while Nate Phillips (seven returns, 4.9 avg.) has been the primary punt returner.
In the kicking game, Josh Pollack has assumed both the punt and kick duties with much better returns at punter, averaging 42.2 yards on 48 punts. At placekicker, Pollack has connected on 9-of-14 attempts but has missed all three attempts beyond 27 yards spanning the past five games. In total, Pollack is just 1-of-6 from beyond 37 yards this year.
If this game were to come down to kicking, one would have to think that ASU’s Lou Groza Award finalist Zane Gonzalez would provide the Sun Devils a distinct advantage over Arizona.
Overall Summary
Oh, the difference two years can make.
A game that in 2014 pitted two nine-win teams in competition for the Pac-12 south title now features a pair of teams both with losing records for just the fourth time in the history of the rivalry.
Though crazy things can happen and logic rarely reigns supreme in rivalry games, on paper the Sun Devils have a handful of distinct advantages. However, ASU has proven to be its worst enemy on several occasions the past two seasons and is a remarkably poorer team on the road compared to the friendly confines of Sun Devil Stadium.
If Arizona State can focus at stick to its strengths and not allow its downsides to being too frequently exploited, the Sun Devils have the advantages to leaving Tucson with a double-figure victory. Again, however, logic and ASU playing up to its full potential have not been common themes during the 2016 season.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Bear Buckle Down
In a game full of emotions that ASU must win for bowl eligibility, it will be crucial for the Sun Devils not to let the pregame hype impact their play. Also, give Arizona’s deficiencies this year, ASU should be able to gain advantages by sticking to basics in its game plan.
On offense, Manny Wilkins must limit mistakes – and helping that cause will be to feed the team’s most reliable players such as Kalen Ballage and N’Keal Harry. ASU should begin the game with a no-nonsense mentality on offense that dares Arizona to stop the key Sun Devils such as Ballage, Harry, and others.
Though the temptation will be there to run trick plays and packages as ASU has done lately as an atypical way to either challenge tough defenses or keep up with elite offenses, the Devils should not need to operate much out of the Sparky package or call play passes from non-quarterbacks. However, ASU has been successful with these calls throughout the season so if Chip Lindsey opts to sign off on these they should then be done at opportune times.
Defensively, ASU should be able to keep the Wildcats in check just by trying to have some measure of discipline. The Arizona offensive players available Friday aren’t highly likely to beat ASU’s defense – unless the Sun Devils break down and allow the Wildcats to gain advantages.
This focus on discipline also emphasizes an importance on disciplined play, as there have been a combined six non-offensive touchdowns scored in the past three meetings between the two teams as well as historically unforgettable fumbles, bobbles, blocked kicks and other tide-turning plays.
Early Advantage
It remains to be seen how raucous the Arizona Stadium crowd is after the Wildcats’ eight-game losing streak and if either team can gain an early edge that can either ignite or quell the hometown crowd. If ASU is able to make its way to the end zone early and/or stop the Wildcat offense in its tracks to begin the game, the home field advantage can be minimized.
Safe Space for Manny
There’s no way to sugarcoat it, for a multitude of reasons the last five starts for Manny Wilkins have been much less impressive than his first four. Injuries and offensive line woes have played a major role, as after rushing for 263 net yards in the first four games, he has totaled -96 rush yards in the last five he has played. It certainly doesn’t help for Wilkins to face defenses like Washington, Utah, and Colorado, so Arizona, by comparison, provides quite a breath of fresh air in that regard.
Altogether, Wilkins’ though process and comfort on the field appear much more impaired than earlier in the season, so for ASU to succeed Friday it will be important for the Sun Devil offensive line to provide steady protection for its quarterback and for Wilkins to make appropriate and safe decisions both in terms of the passing game as a whole and deciding when to throw and when to run.
Familiar Faces
· ASU head coach Todd Graham was an assistant under Rich Rodriguez in 2001-02
· Graham coached current Arizona assistant coach Jahmile Addae at West Virginia in 2002
· Arizona assistant coach Tony Dews coached under Graham at Pittsburgh in 2011 and with Graham at West Virginia in 2001
· Arizona assistant coach Calvin Magee coached under Graham at Pittsburgh in 2011 and with Graham at West Virginia in 2001-02
· ASU assistant coach Keith Patterson was also on the Pittsburgh staff under Graham with Dews and Magee
· Arizona assistant coach Vince Amey played at ASU from 1994-97, where he was a two-year starter on the defensive line and an Honorable Mention All-Pac-10 selection as a senior
· Arizona assistant coach Charlie Ragle was a graduate assistant at ASU under Dirk Koetter in 2006
· Arizona QB Brandon Dawkins attended Westlake (Calif.) Oaks Christian High School as did ASU’s Carlos Mendoza
· Arizona OL Layth Friekh, WR Shawn Poindexter, and CB Isaac Steele attended Peoria (Ariz.) Centennial High School, as did ASU’s Marshal Nathe
· Arizona LB Cody Ippolito, CB DaVonte’ Neal, TE Trevor Wood and OL Keenan Walker played at Scottsdale (Ariz.) Chaparral High School as did ASU’s Tyler Whiley
· Arizona LB Paul Magloire attended Arizona Western College, as did ASU’s Raymond Epps
· Arizona CB Kwesi Mashack and TE Jamie Nunley attended Murrieta (Calif.) Vista Murrieta High School as did ASU’s Coltin Gerhart
· Arizona LS Nick Reinhardt and DL Parker Zellers attended Scottsdale (Ariz.) Notre Dame Prep as did ASU’s Grant Martinez
· Arizona LS Donald Reiter attended Phoenix (Ariz.) Brophy Prep as did ASU’s Frederick Gammage
· Arizona QB Anu Solomon played at Las Vegas (Nev.) Bishop Gorman High School, as did ASU’s Armand Perry
