Preseason and early season expectations can be a tricky beast. Year-in, year-out, preseason polls are both put through microanalysis and also scoffed at by those whose teams are not shown satisfactory favor.
As a college football season creeps past its first few weeks, the truth of teams begins to show – for better or for worst. One game can be an exception or an anomaly, two games can be a coincidence, but three games can be where trends develop.
After staging an impressive comeback to defeat UTSA, ASU now stands at 3-0 entering its Pac-12 season opener against California this weekend. Though winning these three games at first glance doesn’t appear to be a Herculean task, to make it through the first quarter of the regular season with an unblemished record is actually a somewhat uncommon occurrence for the Sun Devils.
Since joining the Pac-10 Conference in 1978, ASU has had seven seasons – now eight – in which the Sun Devils began the year with a 3-0 record.
Understandably, some of the best season in the Pac-10/12 era began with 3-0 starts as three of the five years of 10 or more wins (1982, ’96 and 2014) began with three straight victories to start the year. In the seven seasons of 3-0 starts since entering the Pac-10 Conference, ASU averages an even nine wins per season, with only two falling short of the nine-win mark.
Though the majority of the 3-0 starts have resulted in highly above average seasons, not all have been incredible as two seasons (2000 and 2006) ended with ASU’s head coach being relieved of his duties.
Prior to entering the Pac-10 Conference in 1978, ASU started 3-0 on 15 occasions, the first of which occurred with a perfect record in a three-game 1899 season and then again with a perfect 4-0 final finish in 1904. Included among these 15 are six of the seven seasons with 10 or more wins that ASU posted before entering the Pac-10.
Altogether, in the 22 seasons, ASU has started 3-0, the combined record is 188-43-2, which equals a winning percentage of .814 that translates to about 10 or 11 wins per 3-0 start if calculated over a 13-game season.
The few exceptions to the rule in 3-0 starts are the finishes at or one game from the .500 mark that occurred in 1954 (5-5), 2000 (6-6) and 2006 (7-6). All three seasons resulted in a coaching change, as in addition to the two aforementioned replacements of Snyder and Koetter, Clyde Smith’s final season in Tempe took place in 1954 before Arizona State made a spectacular change to then bring in Dan Devine.
So what does this mean for ASU standing at 3-0 to begin the 2016 season? Well, if you choose to consider the application of this data to this season’s prospects to be apples and oranges, absolutely nothing. If a correlation is acknowledged, the Sun Devils should be expected to at the very least become bowl eligible this year. Beyond that, history says that the results could be anywhere from slightly above average to an elite standing.
ASU’s 3-0 Starts Since Joining the Pac-10 Conference in 1978
2014
Opening Win Streak: 3-0
Final Record: 10-3
Following one of the most exciting runs in recent years that resulted in a Pac-12 south division title, questions circled the program regarding how ASU would be able to reload a completely depleted defense with departures including two-time league Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton.
Despite the inexperience on defense, the Sun Devil offense featuring Taylor Kelly, Jaelen Strong and D.J. Foster was a perceived strength and ASU was ranked No. 19 in the Preseason AP Poll. The year began with comfortable wins at home against Weber State (45-14) and at New Mexico (58-23) before a third-game conference victory on the road against Colorado (38-24). In that Colorado game, however, Kelly, ASU’s third-year starting quarterback, suffered a foot injury that would keep him out of action for over a month.
Overall, ASU finished the year 10-3 with a Sun Bowl victory over Duke, but could have reached an even higher level as the Sun Devils were legitimately in the College Football Playoff conversation after defeating Notre Dame on Nov. 8 but the Devils dropped two of their final three regular season contests.
2007
Opening Win Streak: 8-0
Final Record: 10-3
Dennis Erickson’s debut season in Tempe included ASU’s hottest start in over a decade, beginning with a 45-3 win over San Jose State. The Sun Devil completed their non-conference slate with a 33-14 win against Colorado and a 34-13 victory over San Diego State. Orchestrated by quarterback Rudy Carpenter and skill position threats including Ryan Torain, Chris McGaha and Mike Jones and veteran lineman Mike Pollak and defensive standouts such as Dexter Davis, Robert James, Justin Tryon and an instant impact true freshman in Omar Bolden, the momentum continued from there as ASU started the season 8-0 with five straight victories in Pac-10 play.
ASU finished the season 10-3 and a share of the Pac-10 Conference title, with Territorial Cup victory over Arizona and a loss to Texas in the Holiday Bowl. In the end, ASU earned a No. 13 final ranking in the Coaches Poll – the highest end of season ranking since ASU won the Pac-10 Conference crown in 1996. Unfortunately, Erickson’s debut season would be his highlight year in Tempe as he failed to post a winning record in the four years thereafter.
2006
Opening Win Streak: 3-0
Final Record: 7-6
The preseason No. 24 team according to the AP, ASU began the year in highly tumultuous fashion with a quarterback controversy just days before the season opener that resulted in Sam Keller transferring to Nebraska. The Sun Devils began the year with a 35-14 win over NAU, a 52-12 victory against Nevada and a 21-3 win at Colorado. Things tailed from there, as ASU dropped its first three conference games, including a 48-13 home loss to Oregon in a game many believe played a significant role in sealing the fate of Dirk Koetter in Tempe. ASU was able to win the Territorial Cup for the fourth time in five years and ended the year sixth in the Pac-10 Conference. Though ASU earned a berth in the Hawaii Bowl against Hawaii, Koetter was fired prior to the postseason appearance.
2004
Opening Win Streak: 5-0
Final Record: 9-3
One the most overachieving teams in recent history, ASU began the season without even a single vote in the preseason AP Poll but ended the year ranked 19th. With head coach Dirk Koetter’s high-powered passing game featuring QB Andrew Walter, WR Derek Hagan, TE Zach Miller and all-purpose standout Rudy Burgess, ASU began with a 41-9 home win over UTEP and a 30-21 road victory over Northwestern. ASU achieved its third win with one of the most impressive victories of the Koetter Era in Tempe when the Devils dominated No. 12 Iowa by a final score of 44-7. Arizona State began the season 5-0 before a loss to eventual National Champion* USC and wrapped up the year with a 9-3 record following an exciting comeback victory over Purdue in the Sun Bowl.
2000
Opening Win Streak: 3-0
Final Record: 6-6
After a 6-6 record that included an Aloha Bowl loss to Wake Forest the year before, ASU started Y2K with a 10-7 win at San Diego State before edging No. 25 Colorado State by a score of 13-10 in Tempe and then soundly defeated Utah State, 44-20. Those three wins, however, would constitute half the victory total for the year, and ASU began league play by dropping two of its first three conference games. The Sun Devils again finished 6-6 with yet another Aloha Bowl defeat and the 2000 season marked the end of Bruce Snyder’s coaching tenure in Tempe.
1996
Opening Win Streak: 11-0
Final Record: 11-1
Expectations were generally pretty high in Tempe prior to the start of the season as ASU was ranked No. 20 in the preseason by the Associated Press – the highest preseason AP ranking for ASU at the time since 1989. No one, however, could have expected the unforgettable ride the Sun Devils would enjoy during the 1996 season as ASU compiled its first undefeated regular season since 1975 and claimed its second outright Pac-10 Championship and Rose Bowl berth.
The first three games included two of the most important ones, as the magical season would have never been if not for a walk-off field goal by Robert Nycz to defeat Washington 45-42 in the season opener. Next up, ASU downed North Texas by a score of 52-7, setting the table for the Devils to host defending two-time National Champion and top-ranked Nebraska in game three. In a game that stands for many as the most memorable in program history, ASU shut out the Cornhuskers 19-0 and catapulted the Sun Devils into the national spotlight.
In the spotlight, ASU would remain, as Jake Plummer and a list of program superstars ran through the Pac-10 Conference unscathed, including a 56-14 decimation of Arizona in Tucson to give ASU a win over the Wildcats for the first time since 1992. The Sun Devils entered the 1997 Rose Bowl ranked second in the nation and came within moments of a National Championship but fell in heartbreaking fashion to Ohio State.
1982
Opening Win Streak: 9-0
Final Record: 10-2
Rated by the AP as the No. 20 team in the preseason, ASU began with a 3-0 start after a 34-3 road win against Oregon, a 23-10 home victory against Utah and a 24-10 win at Houston. The Sun Devils would ride their nation’s best defense to nine straight victories and entered the month of November in first place in the Pac-10 Conference and just two games from the program’s first Rose Bowl berth. Unfortunately, the Devils dropped their final two regular season games to Washington and Arizona but rebounded to defeat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
