Thursday’s Pac-12 Conference Media Day provided the annual platform for coaches to discuss the upcoming season, for league commissioner Larry Scott to boast about ongoing conference developments and, of course, for the yearly Pac-12 Media Poll to be unveiled.
As expected, Arizona State was not chosen in the upper part of its division – fifth, in fact, in the south – creating a great deal of commentary among Sun Devil supporters that shrug off such preseason prognostications.
In an attempt to determine how valid these polls historically have been, we take a deeper look into the five previous Pac-12 Conference preseason polls to analyze the trustworthiness of the league media in this regard.
Certainly, this does not predict wins and losses – some divisions in the league have had undefeated teams, while UCLA in 2011 won the south with a .500 record – but simply the reliability of how the Pac-12 media orders the conference’s hierarchy season-by-season.
Overall, of the 60 predictions made across the five season of the Pac-12 Conference since the league expanded in 2012, the preseason media has gotten 21 picks exactly right in terms of divisional rankings (35.0%). Additionally, 28 preseason selections were within one slot (up or down) from where the team ultimately ended the season (46.7%). Therefore altogether, 49 of the 60 preseason selections (81.7%) either were spot on or within one slot of where teams have finished. Of course, that one slot can be a substantial difference – say, ASU in 2011 and 2014 – but in terms of general credibility for the conference voters, support exists.
When it comes to the 11 teams that finished with a divisional ranking more than one spot from what the league media predicted, no team has ever finished more than three slots from their expected position and only five of the 11 were three-spot differences – with one being a drop of three spots.
2015: Utah (predicted fifth in south, finished second)
2014: Arizona (predicted fourth in south, finished first)
2012: Oregon State (predicted sixth in north, finished third); Utah (predicted second in south, finished fifth)
2011: UCLA (predicted fifth in south, finished second)
Pac-12 Conference media, however, have had iffy results picking the championship game participants and winners as the league predicted only two of the five champions (Oregon in 2011 and ’14) and only three of the 10 participants have been correctly chosen (Oregon in 2011 and ’14 and USC in ’15). Judging by these numbers, odds are either Stanford or UCLA – or both – will be watching the early December game from home this year.
To sum it all up, for the hopelessly optimistic among us if ASU were to win the south it would be the most surprising leap in a given season since the league expanded as no team in either division has finished a year four spots higher than predicted in the preseason.
Specifically for ASU, however, the Sun Devils have quite literally been all over the map – of the five seasons of Pac-12 play, Arizona State has twice exceeded expectations, has twice fallen short and once landed exactly where media predicted. In 2015, ASU was picked second in the south and finished fourth, in 2014 was chosen and finished third in the division, in 2013 ASU was selected second and finished first, in 2012 the Sun Devils were expected to place fifth and finished fourth and in 2011, ASU was chosen second and finished third.
Pac-12 Preseason Voting 2011-15 (First-Place Divisional Votes)
2015
Preseason
North: Oregon (37), Stanford (8), California, Washington, Washington State, Oregon State
South: USC (32), Arizona State (7), UCLA (6), Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Champion: USC over Oregon
Actual
North: Stanford, Oregon, Washington State, California, Washington, Oregon State
South: USC, Utah, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado
Champion: Stanford over USC
Biggest Surprise: Utah (picked fifth in south, finished second)
Biggest Disappointment: Arizona State (picked second in south, finished fourth)
2014
Preseason
North: Oregon (37), Stanford (2), Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, California
South: UCLA (37), USC (1), Arizona State (1), Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Champion: Oregon over UCLA
Actual
North: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, California, Washington State, Oregon State
South: Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Utah, Colorado
Champion: Oregon over Arizona
Biggest Surprise: Arizona (picked fourth in south, finished first)
Biggest Disappointments: Oregon State (picked fourth in north, finished sixth), USC (picked second in south, finished fourth)
2013
Preseason
North: Oregon (15), Stanford (11), Oregon State, Washington, California, Washington State
South: UCLA (12), Arizona State (10), USC, (4), Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Champion: Oregon over UCLA
Actual
North: Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, California
South: Arizona State, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Champion: Stanford over Arizona State
This year, the Pac-12 media had a firm beat on the conference standings as no team was ranked in the preseason in a drastically different spot than what became the ultimate result. However, the media whiffed on both title game participants and, of course, the league champion.
2012
Preseason
North: Oregon (117), Stanford (5), Washington, California (1), Washington State, Oregon State
South: USC (117), Utah (1), UCLA (2), Arizona, Arizona State (3), Colorado
Champion: USC over Oregon
Actual
North: Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, California, Washington State
South: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Champion: Stanford over UCLA
Biggest Surprise: Oregon State (picked sixth in north, finished third)
Biggest Disappointment: Utah (picked second in south, finished fifth)
2011
Preseason
North: Oregon (29), Stanford (13), Washington, Oregon State, California, Washington State
South: USC (24), Arizona State (13), Utah (4), Arizona (1), UCLA, Colorado
Champion: Oregon over Arizona State (USC ineligible for postseason play)
Actual
North: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, California, Oregon State, Washington State
South: USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Arizona
Champion: Oregon over UCLA
Biggest Surprise: UCLA (picked fifth in south, finished second)
Biggest Disappointment: Arizona (picked fourth in south, finished sixth)
