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Published Nov 18, 2016
Sun Devil Science: ASU vs. Top-10 Teams Since 2000
Joe Healey
Staff Writer

To quote 16-time world champ, Ric Flair, “to be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man (wooo!)”!

In order to become – and more importantly to remain – an elite college football team, a program has to play and defeat prestigious teams.

In Pac-12 Conference play, non-conference games and postseason bowl games, ASU on average faces about one to two top-10 opponents per season and the results have historically not favored Arizona State.

This weekend, ASU faces its first – and likely the only – top-10 opponent in Washington, ranked No. 7 this week by the Associated Press.

Where does ASU stand in its recent history against top-10 opponents?

Since the start of the 2000 season, ASU has played 27 games against teams ranked in the AP top-10 at the time the two teams played. These 27 games have been played against 13 different teams, with Oregon (seven) and USC (six) understandably occupying the highest total. Also, in 2013 ASU played the same top-10 team twice as Stanford was ranked No. 5 when the two teams played in September and No. 7 when they met in the Pac-12 Conference Championship Game.

Evaluating 2016, it is reasonable to expect Washington to be the only top-10 team ASU will have faced through the entire 2016 season, as there is no logical scenario in which the Sun Devils will play a top-10 squad in the postseason this year (assuming ASU becomes bowl eligible).

If Washington is the only top-10 opponent for Arizona State, it would give the 2016 season a tie with 2000, ’01, ’06, ’07, and ’14 as the only seasons since 2000 with just one top-10 opponent. Since 2000, the 2009 season is the only one in which ASU didn’t face a single top-10 team. On the other end of the spectrum, the greatest total of top-10 teams faced in a season since 2000 is the five that ASU played in 2002.

Overall, ASU is just 3-24 against AP top-10 teams since 2000 with wins at No. 6 Oregon in 2002, against No. 8 Notre Dame in 2014 and at No. 7 UCLA in 2015.

Under Todd Graham, ASU is 2-5 against teams ranked in the AP top-10 at the time of the game with wins over Notre Dame in 2014 and UCLA in 2015 and losses to Oregon in 2012, Stanford (twice) in 2013 and Utah in 2015.


ASU vs. Top-10 Opponents Since 2000 (At the time the two teams played)
YearTeamRankW/LScoreFinal Record

2000

Oregon

7

L

56-55

10-2

2001

Oregon

8

L

42-24

11-1

2002

Nebraska

10

L

48-10

7-7

2002

Oregon

6

W

45-42

7-6

2002

Washington State

8

L

44-22

10-3

2002

USC

8

L

34-13

4

2002

Kansas State

6

L

34-27

11-2

2003

USC

10

L

37-17

12-1

2003

Washington State

8

L

34-19

10-3

2004

USC

1

L

45-7

11-0

2004

California

7

L

27-0

10-2

2005

LSU

5

L

35-31

11-2

2005

USC

1

L

38-28

12-1

2006

USC

3

L

28-21

11-2

2007

Oregon

4

L

35-23

9-4

2008

Georgia

3

L

27-10

10-3

2008

USC

8

L

28-0

12-1

2010

Oregon

5

L

42-31

12-1

2010

Stanford

7

L

17-13

11-2

2011

Oregon

9

L

41-27

12-2

2011

Boise State

6

L

56-24

12-1

2012

Oregon

2

L

43-21

12-1

2013

Stanford

7

L

38-14

11-3

2013

Stanford

5

L

42-28

11-3

2014

Notre Dame

8

W

52-31

8-5

2015

UCLA

7

W

38-23

8-5

2015

Utah

4

L

34-18

10-3

An additional area of concern is that the victories over top-10 teams ASU has achieved since 2000 are not as impressive as they appear on paper as some proved to be far from top-10 caliber teams. Of the 27 games against top-10 teams from 2000-15, four of those teams ultimately went on to win fewer than nine games in that season. Included in those four are all three wins ASU has notched as UCLA in 2015 and Notre Dame in 2014 both finished 8-5 and Oregon finished 7-6 in 2002. Nebraska tallied a 7-7 record in 2002 despite being ranked No. 10 to begin the year but defeated the Sun Devils to open that season.

Aside from these four, of the remaining 23 teams only one finished with just nine wins (Oregon in 2007), while the remaining 22 finished with 10 or more wins. A total of 18 of the 27 finished in the final AP top-10, another four finished between No. 11-13, while one finished No. 23.

Altogether, ASU is 0-23 since 2000 against teams that were ranked in the AP top-10 at the time they played the Sun Devils and went on to finish in the AP top-25. Boasting a 9-1 record entering this week’s game, it is very plausible Washington will finish in the final AP top-25 even in the highly unlikely event that it loses all its remaining games.

Though there are nine interchanged teams, the outcomes are worse against foes that went on to finish with a top-10 AP ranking (regardless the ranking at the time ASU played each opponent). Since 2000, against teams that ended up ranked in the final AP top-10, Arizona State is 2-25 in 27 total matchups with wins against Iowa in 2004 and USC in 2011. However, neither team was ranked in the top-10 at the time the game was played as the Hawkeyes were ranked No. 16 and the Trojans were ranked No. 23.

Ultimately, if we want to expand the list to ASU’s record against teams that were ranked in the AP top-10 at the time the two teams played and/or in the final AP top-10, since 2000 the Sun Devils are 5-31.

Under Todd Graham, ASU is 0-2 against teams that ended in the AP top-10 with losses to Oregon in 2012 and UCLA in 2014.

Depending on how Washington’s postseason transpires, it is possible the Huskies could finish with a top-10 ranking.


ASU vs. Opponents Ranked in the Final AP Top-10 (Since 2000)
YearTeamRankW/L

2000

Washington

3

L

2000

Oregon

7

L

2001

Oregon

2

L

2001

Washington State

10

L

2002

USC

4

L

2002

Kansas State

7

L

2002

Washington State

10

L

2003

USC

1

L

2003

Iowa

8

L

2003

Washington State

9

L

2004

USC

1

L

2004

Iowa

8

W

2004

California

9

L

2005

USC

2

L

2005

LSU

6

L

2006

USC

4

L

2007

USC

3

L

2008

USC

3

L

2008

Oregon

10

L

2010

Oregon

2

L

2010

Wisconsin

7

L

2010

Stanford

4

L

2011

Oregon

4

L

2011

USC

6

W

2011

Boise State

8

L

2012

Oregon

2

L

2014

UCLA

10

L