Sun Devil Science: ASU in November

The 2017 season for Arizona State is two-thirds in the books with four crucial games ahead in the month of November to conclude the year. ASU’s postseason objectives and the long-term stability of head coach Todd Graham very much hang in the balance of what has yet to occur in the upcoming home game against Colorado, road trips to UCLA and Oregon State and lastly the annual battle for the Territorial Cup against Arizona in Tempe.

Some programs are “closers” in that they seemingly gain strength as the season wraps up, while others fade into obscurity after impressive starts to the season.

With so much on the line this month, one must wonder how ASU has performed in recent years and decades in the month of November.

To answer that inquiry, this week’s #SunDevilScience lesson breaks down the successes and failures of the Sun Devil football program in the month of November.

Note: The figures detailed in this analysis only include games played in the month of November.

Highest November Winning Percentage (1978-Present, Minimum Two Seasons)

John Cooper (1985-87): 7-3-1 (.700)

Bruce Snyder (1992-2000): 16-12 (.571)

Todd Graham (2012-16): 11-9 (.550)

Darryl Rogers (1980-84): 11-9 (.550)

Larry Marmie (1988-91): 7-6 (.539)

Dirk Koetter (2001-06): 8-13 (.381)

Dennis Erickson (2007-11): 5-13 (.278)

Of the seven head coaches to have coached at ASU for more than one full season since the Sun Devils joined the Pac-10 Conference in 1978, five have winning career records at Arizona State in the month of November with two former coaches having noticeably subpar records in the month under analysis.

Currently, Todd Graham is tied for the second-most wins and third-highest winning percentage in the month of November among ASU head coaches in the previously mentioned span. Though only two games above .500, Graham’s standing marks a substantial improvement from his two immediate predecessors as Dennis Erickson (5-13) and Dirk Koetter (8-13) had a combined .333 winning percentage in the month of November spanning the 2001-11 seasons.

Oddly, John Cooper has the highest winning percentage among this group but two of his three losses and his lone tie came against Arizona as Cooper was winless against the Wildcats in his three seasons in Tempe.

Bob Owens was 1-3 in the lone November he coached as ASU’s interim head coach in 1979 after Frank Kush was fired earlier in the season. Kush was 3-1 in the only November he guided ASU as a member of the Pac-10 Conference.

Final Month Perfection

If ASU were to sweep its four-game slate for November, such an effort in 2017 would mark just the third time since the Sun Devils joined the league in 1978 that Arizona State had an unscathed November, joining highly memorable campaigns in 1996 (3-0) and 2013 (4-0). Even a 3-1 finish would be an uncommon accomplishment, as in the past 30 seasons only two additional times (1997 and 2008 in addition to 1996 and 2013) has ASU played four or more games in November and won at least three.

On the Road in November

It stands to reason that ASU will have to at a minimum split its final two road games in order to avoid a high-pressure, “must-win” scenario against Arizona in the finale – or even worse, fail to meet bowl eligibility regardless the outcome of the clash for the Territorial Cup.

Away from Sun Devil Stadium, recent history is not on the Devils’ side as ASU is currently on a six-game losing skid on the road in November dating back to the most recent road November win which was when ASU clinched the Pac-12 South title at UCLA in 2013.

Last year, ASU lost at Arizona and Washington, the previous season the Sun Devils lost at California and at Washington State and in 2014 the Sun Devils lost at Arizona and at Oregon State in November. Prior to that point, Todd Graham had a 3-2 road record at Arizona State across his first two seasons with the program.

History Lesson of 2017 November Matchups

ASU faces a mixture of common and uncommon November adversaries this season – for the first time in series history, Arizona State and Colorado play in November while playing in Pasadena against UCLA this month has been routine, as, of course, is the Sun Devils’ typical regular-season finale against rival Arizona. Oregon State is somewhere in the middle as the Sun Devils and Beavers have met in Corvallis in the month of November three of the past four overall times the two teams have met in that venue but only once before in November in the near 30 previous years, both teams were members of the Pac-10 Conference.

Colorado (Tempe)

The Sun Devils and the Buffaloes have met on eight total occasions – a non-conference home-and-home in 2006-07 and all six years the two have shared in the Pac-12 Conference. Thus far, none of the games have been played in the month of November with the closest being in 2011 when the two teams met on Oct. 29 in Tempe.

UCLA (Pasadena)

Current Streak: One win (2013)

Last ASU Win: 2013

Last Five: 2-3 (2005 (L), ’07 (W), ’09 (L), ’11 (L), ’13 (W))

ASU’s last game in Pasadena was not in the month of November, but for more than a decade, the Devils and Bruins met in November when the game was played at the Rose Bowl. The most recent November meetings in Pasadena between ASU and UCLA have been highly dramatic as Arizona State’s 2013 win secured the South division title for the Sun Devils, while the 2011 matchup included an unbelievable comeback by the Bruins.

Oregon State (Corvallis)

Current Streak: Four losses (2006, ’08, ’12, ’14)

Last ASU Win: 1996

Last Five: 1-4 (1996 (W), 2006 (L), ’08 (L), ’12 (L), ’14 (L))

A location that has oddly given ASU fits despite playing against varying qualities of Beaver teams, four of the past five overall games played by the Sun Devils have come in the month of November and all resulted in losses. Before that, a 10-year gap exists away from November games played in Corvallis, with the most recent win occurring in ASU’s unforgettable 1996 season.

Arizona (Tempe)

Current Streak: Two wins (2013, ’15)

Last ASU Win: 2015

Last Five: 3-2 (2005 (W), ’09 (L), ’11 (L), ’13 (W), ’15 (W))

Last 10: 5-5 (1995 (L), ’97 (L), ’99 (W), 2001 (L), ’03 (W), ‘05 (W), ’09 (L), ’11 (L), ’13 (W), ’15 (W))

The only game on ASU’s schedule virtually guaranteed to be played in November – there have been some December matchups – the Sun Devils’ rivalry game with Arizona is always an unpredictable affair. Todd Graham is 2-0 all-time against the Wildcats in Tempe, with an average final score in those two games of 55-28. The 2007 meeting does not count for this analysis as it was played on Dec. 1