As the halfway point of Big 12 conference play approaches, it's been a tale of two starts for the premier programs in the 48th state. Despite its most recent nail-biting victory, Arizona State (12-8, 3-6 Big 12) has struggled significantly compared to its rival down south, Arizona (14-6, 8-1), which has dominated the conference, most recently securing an 86-75 overtime win over No. 3 Iowa State on Monday. The two teams will face off in the Territorial Cup on Saturday in Tempe.
The Sun Devils returned to the win column Tuesday, earning their second consecutive road victory by defeating Colorado, 70-68, in Boulder. On the surface, narrowly beating a winless Colorado team that sits at the bottom of the league standings wouldn’t typically boost their confidence, but considering key absences, including five-star freshman forward Jayden Quaintance and senior guard BJ Freeman, it’s easy to see why the game was so close.
Quaintance did not travel with ASU to Boulder after suffering an ankle injury due to a “bad step in practice Thursday,” according to head coach Bobby Hurley. Quaintance did play on Saturday against Iowa State, wearing a wrap on his ankle, and scored nine points in 17 minutes of action.
Freeman started the game against Colorado but left the court just four minutes into the contest after injuring his quad. He appeared to be in significant pain on the bench, and by the start of the second half, he was in street clothes. Freeman leads the Sun Devils in points per game (12.5), and Quaintance ranks third in the nation in blocks per game (3.0). Missing either one or both of them against the Wildcats would be detrimental to ASU’s chances of slowing down the team from Tucson.
Arizona is on a roll. After falling out of the AP Top 25 with a 6-5 start to non-conference play, head coach Tommy Lloyd has his team playing with intensity on both ends. Arizona has won 10 of its last 11 games and is second in the Big 12 standings.
The Wildcats’ most recent game had blockbuster written all over it. Hosting one of the nation’s premier programs, Iowa State was ahead 71-68 when the buzzer sounded. But in a moment reminiscent of a college basketball film, fifth-year guard Caleb Love nailed a half-court heave to tie the game, sending McKale Memorial Center into a frenzy and forcing overtime. What transpired in the next five minutes was pure domination. Arizona hit 4 of 5 three-pointers, scoring 15 points to defeat Iowa State, a program that had been counted out by national media after the non-conference struggles but is now back at the top.
Offensively, the Wildcats can score with the best of the Big 12, ranking second in the conference with over 82 points per game. As a fast-paced, run-and-gun team, Lloyd’s squad ranks fourth in field goal percentage, converting 48% of their attempts. Their Achilles’ heel, however, is shooting from the outside, as they make just 32% of their three-point attempts. Outside shooting is a key indicator of Arizona’s success, as they are 14-1 when shooting over 28% from three. When Lloyd’s team is consistent from deep, they are nearly unbeatable.
On the defensive end, Arizona is fairly average, allowing over 69 points per game, which ranks 10th in the conference. However, the Wildcats imposed their will on the defensive glass, ranking second in combined team rebounds in the Big 12. They excel on both ends, ranking third in defensive rebounds (27.4) and fourth in offensive rebounds (12.5).
Love was the standout player for Arizona well before his heroic game-tying heave. Averaging a team-high 15.7 points per game, the St. Louis native can do it all offensively, using his 6-foot-4 frame and explosive build to attack the rim. As his collegiate career has progressed, Love has also transformed into a more viable three-point shooter. This shift has affected his field goal percentage, which has dipped to 39% from the field and 30.6% from three. Love’s low field goal percentage is a reflection of his high-volume shooting and shot selection, often settling for deep three-pointers and late shot-clock attempts.
Beyond Love, the rest of the Arizona rotation shares the scoring load, with seven players averaging between 11.6 and 6.2 points per game. The Wildcats enjoy playing fast, which is reflected in their reliance on guards. Alongside Love in the backcourt is junior guard Jaden Bradley, who leads the team in minutes per game, assists (4.0), and steals (2.1). Bradley plays with great patience on both ends, getting into passing lanes and disrupting offenses while also picking teams apart in the pick-and-roll and utilizing handoff actions to his advantage.
Expect Arizona’s bigs to frustrate Hurley’s side on both ends. Freshman forward Carter Bryant, at 6-foot-8, is a willing shooter who spaces the floor and rebounds effectively. But it’s New York native Tobe Awaka, also 6-foot-8, who rebounds beyond his size, averaging eight rebounds per game to lead Arizona.
So, how does ASU stop the rolling freight train located just 100 miles to the southeast?
First and foremost, health is the most critical factor for the Maroon and Gold. Without the help of their premier freshman or their first option on the wing, the Sun Devils will lack an extensive amount of talent—potentially too much to overcome.
ASU will have to play at a varied pace on Saturday. In Tempe, Hurley’s side can dictate the flow of games when utilizing its 1-2-2 press scheme, forcing turnovers or, at worst, turning a half-court showdown into a track-meet style affair.
However, two major issues arise when the Sun Devils turn up the heat: most notably, turnovers. ASU has struggled all year in that capacity, averaging 13.8 turnovers per game, ranking 15th in the Big 12. In addition to having the second-worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the conference, ASU can play fast in spurts but is prone to playing out of control when doing so.
With potentially a shrinking rotation due to injuries, Hurley’s team is forced to play effectively with fewer players. On Tuesday, the Sun Devils played just six players, with freshman forward Amir Ali logging 27 minutes, the most he has played to date. For ASU, managing health and stamina will play a critical role in the Territorial Cup, assuming Quaintance and Freeman are able to play limited minutes at best.
Arizona State and Arizona tip-off from Tempe on Saturday at 11 a.m. AZT on CBS.
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