Survive and advance.
It’s the goal of every team in the NCAA Tournament, and that’s exactly what Arizona State (23-10 overall, 12-6 in conference play) did on Wednesday night defeating St. John’s 74-65 in its First Four matchup in Dayton.
Behind 21 points from Luguentz Dort and a double-double from Zylan Cheatham (14 points and 10 rebounds), ASU captured its first NCAA Tournament victory since 2009.
The Sun Devils used a strong first half to a build a double-digit lead. They shot 54 percent from the field while limiting St. John’s to only 30 percent shooting.
The second stanza, however, was a different story. ASU had more turnovers (13) than field goals (8) and looked shaky in the final minutes of the game. Luckily for the Sun Devils, they built enough of a cushion to hold on for the win.
Bobby Hurley, who secured his first NCAA tourney win as a coach, is simply happy to extend the season.
“I just love coaching these guys,” Hurley said. “We don’t want the journey to end, and that’s what it’s about this time of year. You just gotta keep making plays and attack each game.”
With the win, ASU advances to the first round to play Buffalo, the No. 6 seed in the West Region. Hurley, of course, is very familiar with Buffalo, whom he coached for two seasons before leaving in April 2015 to take the job at ASU.
Hurley has kept close tabs on his former squad and communicates regularly with Buffalo head coach Nate Oats, who served as an assistant under Hurley before getting promoted to his current position.
Hurley has watched many of the Bulls’ games this season and said the MAC regular-season (and conference tournament) champions are a gritty bunch who’ve adopted the fiery persona of Oats.
“His kids play extremely hard and they have a chip on their shoulder,” Hurley explained. “You know the whole mid-major thing -- I think they’re tired of [that label].”
Despite the close friendship between Hurley and Oats, don’t be fooled. The ASU coach has a cut-throat mentality heading into the first-round contest.
“Nate and I spoke and we both agree that we’re really good friends and we both helped each other tremendously in our careers,” Hurley said. “But that’s probably not going to matter a whole lot on Friday.”
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Having won its last 12 games, Buffalo (31-3, 16-2) enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country.
The Bulls returned most of its roster from last year’s squad, which thumped Arizona 89-68 in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, before bowing out to Kentucky in the round of 32.
With the help of its high-octane offense, Buffalo is a trendy pick to make a deep run in this year’s tourney. The Bulls, who average 84.8 points per game, are the nation’s fourth-best scoring team. They also rank among the nation’s top-25 in assists (16.6 per game), three-pointers made (9.7) and two-point field goal percentage (55.8).
And although they are best known for their offense, Buffalo is also a scrappy team on the defensive end. With their length and athleticism, they force a lot of turnovers (15.3 per game) and do a great job of defending the three-point line (30.2 percent).
How balanced is the Bulls’ attack? Well, they are one of only 11 teams residing in the top-30 of the KenPom rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Translation: this team is very good.
When analyzing this Buffalo squad, everything begins with senior CJ Massinburg, the MAC Player of the Year. The 6-foot-3 guard was not heavily recruited out of high school, but he has become a bonafide star at the collegiate level. Massinburg is UB’s second all-time leading scorer and is only 42 points away from reaching 2,000 for his career.
This season, he was the MAC’s third-leading scorer (18.3 points per game) and ranked in the top-15 in rebounds, assists, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage.
Massinburg is a cerebral player who rarely gets rattled, and his high basketball IQ allows him to be an effective scorer at all three levels.
There are two other seniors—Jeremy Harris and Montell McRae—in Buffalo’s starting five.
Harris, an All-MAC Second Team selection, is listed as a 6-foot-7 guard but usually plays the four-man in Buffalo’s small-ball lineup. He is the team’s third-leading scorer (14.0 per game) and rebounder (6.1) and is a sneaky-good defender with his length and quickness. And although Harris’s three-point percentage is drastically down from last season, opponents still need to respect his outside shooting in the Bulls’ four-out, one-in offense.
McRae, a lanky 6-foot-10 post player, is the tallest man in the Bulls’ rotation. He possesses good athleticism and is active around the hoop. He’s only an adequate rebounder for his size, but he is surprisingly efficient from three-point range (35 percent).
Davonta Jordan, a junior, is the team’s floor general. He is a prototypical pass-first point guard, who does a tremendous job of setting up his teammates. However, his greatest value may come on the defensive end. The 6-foot-2 guard was among the league leaders in steals (1.5 per game) and made the MAC’s All-Defensive Team this season.
Jayvon Graves, a sophomore, rounds out the Bulls’ starting five. The 6-foot-3 guard is a solid two-way player who is playing the best basketball of his collegiate career in recent weeks. He is averaging 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds over the last nine games while shooting nearly 46 percent from beyond the arc.
What separates Buffalo from most teams is the talent and depth coming off its bench. The Bulls’ rotation typically goes nine deep, with a bulk of the bench minutes going to seniors Nick Perkins and Dontay Caruthers, who essentially log starter-like minutes.
Perkins, a burly 6-foot-8 forward, is Buffalo’s best low-post scorer and defender. He leads the team in rebounding (7.3 per game) and is second in scoring (14.4). After a tremendous senior season, Perkins was recently named the MAC’s Sixth Man of the Year, and in the process, he became the first player in Division-I history to win the honor three times.
On a team full of defensive stoppers, Caruthers is undoubtedly the best. The 6-foot-3 guard wreaks havoc on defense with his quickness and unrelenting style of play. He was among the league leader in steals (1.4 per game), and was named the MAC’s Defensive Player of the Year for his outstanding performance this season. Caruthers is also an efficient offensive player -- he averages 8.8 points per game on 57 percent shooting.
Buffalo’s rotation is rounded out by a couple of freshmen – 6-foot-5 wing Jeenathan Williams (3.3 PPG) and 6-foot guard Ronald Segu (2.2 PPG).
Probable Starters:
Arizona State:
F…Romello White…..6-8….R-SO…..8.7 PPG……5.3 RPG
F…Zylan Cheatham…6-8….R-SR….11.8 PPG…10.4 RPG
G…Rob Edwards……..6-4….R-JR.…11.3 PPG…..3.1 RPG
G…Luguentz Dort……6-4……FR……16.1 PPG…..4.3 RPG
G…Remy Martin……..6-0…..SO……13.4 PPG…..5.1 APG
Buffalo:
F…Montell McRae…6-10….SR….....5.8 PPG…..3.5 RPG
G…Jeremy Harris……6-7.….SR…….14.0 PPG….6.1 RPG
G…CJ Massinburg…..6-3…..SR…….18.3 PPG….6.6 RPG
G…Jayvon Graves…..6-3…..SO….….9.9 PPG…..4.2 RPG
G…Davonta Jordan…6-2…..JR….…..7.3 PPG…..3.6 APG
Why ASU Can Win: The Sun Devils match-up well against the Bulls. They have the size and athleticism to neutralize Buffalo’s big men (Perkins and McRae), and also have the necessary defenders on the perimeter to slow down the Bulls’ high-powered backcourt of Massinburg, Harris, Graves, and Jordan.
And although Buffalo is a good team, there’s no denying that, how much have they actually been tested? They’ve only faced two NCAA Tournament teams this season – Syracuse (won by 12) and Marquette (lost by 18) – with mixed results.
Furthermore, let’s not forget ASU can also score in bunches (77.7 points per game), and that seems to be a pre-requisite for any team hoping to beat Buffalo. In fact, in its three losses this season, Buffalo gave up 103 points (to Marquette), 77 (to Northern Illinois) and 92 (to Bowling Green).
Why Buffalo Can Win: The Bulls’ roster features a number of positionless players with length and athleticism, who can score and defend at an elite level. This might explain why Buffalo is one of only 11 teams in the top-30 of the KenPom rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Buffalo also has the necessary experience—five seniors in its nine-man rotation—to make a deep run in the tourney. Each season when March rolls around, we are reminded of the importance of senior leadership in the NCAA Tournament, and that should bode well for the Bulls.
Lost in Buffalo’s exciting style of play, is the fact they actually take good care of the ball. The team’s turnover rate (15.3 percent) is among the lowest in the country, and they also do a great job of pressuring opponents into mistakes, which might explain why they have a turnover margin of 3.9, which ranks 12th nationally.
Key Stat: Here’s an interesting nugget: Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, exactly one team from the First Four “play-in” games has advanced to round of the 32. With a win against Buffalo, the Sun Devils can continue the streak.
X-Factor: Remy Martin’s health. The sophomore guard did not look like himself in ASU’s win over St. John’s on Wednesday night. He registered only six points and three assists, and committed six turnovers in 23 minutes of action. Hurley deliberately limited Martin’s minutes down the stretch to prevent any re-aggravation of the groin injury.
“I feel like [Remy] moved fairly well at times,” Hurley explained. “He didn’t get any reps in practice for a couple of days until [Wednesday], so I’m sure that had some impact, but he’s one of the toughest kids I’ve ever been around. And he’ll tell me he’s getting close to 100 percent, but I don’t know if he’s being completely truthful when he says that.”
Prediction: Buffalo 80, ASU 77
Game Info:
When: 1:00 pm MST
Where: Bank of Oklahoma Center – Tulsa, Okla.
TV: TNT
Radio: 98.7 FM
