Oregon Preview
Romello White uttered what was sure to be a massive hyperbole … until Thursday, when it didn’t seem so outlandish anymore.
“Oregon, they’re top-ranked. So, of course, that’s going to be tough for us,” White said Tuesday. “This road trip means a lot to us because this is going to be our first (chance) to get back in our groove. These two wins are big for us.”
Two big wins?
Now he may have just meant two big games, but even so, it articulates the confidence the Sun Devils have in themselves -- even if all of their stats and games haven’t necessarily given it cause.
Heading into Thursday’s matchup with Oregon State, the Sun Devils had dropped three of their last four. They couldn’t hit a shot outside of about three feet. And their confidence seemed to be shot.
That was highlighted in a 28-point loss to Arizona, a disconcerting showing to open Pac-12 play. As far as ASU’s conference and NCAA Tournament hopes went, hope was bleak.
On Thursday, the Devils flipped the narrative. They looked how everyone expected them to look this season -- and the exact opposite of how they had been playing for more than a month. Against a solid 11-win Oregon State team on the road, ASU shot almost 50 percent from the field and from deep, heading out of Corvallis with an 82-76 victory.
As White predicted, the Devils -- and a number of players, including Rob Edwards (18 points) and Remy Martin (24 points) -- got back in their groove -- and now a win at Oregon separates them from validating White’s second forecast (or possible misspeak).
The only problem is the ninth-ranked Ducks look like the best team in the Pac-12. That notion was validated on Thursday with their one-point overtime victory over No. 24 Arizona, sealed with a last-second block by guard Will Richardson.
Along with senior point guard Payton Pritchard and guard Chris Duarte, Richardson is part of a dominant Oregon backcourt that boasts a trio who all average over 10 points a game.
Pritchard, of course, is the Ducks’ leader. The senior is averaging 18.6 points 5.9 assists and almost two steals a game. Pritchard is a gritty, speedy point guard who leads an offense that plays at the seventh-highest tempo in the country.
That may be trouble for ASU. Its two worst losses of the season (by 40 to Saint Mary’s and 28 to Arizona) were against the two teams that play the fastest. (Saint Mary’s is 8th in the country in offensive tempo -- Arizona is 12th). In both games, the Sun Devils were blitzed and its transition defense became feeble.
Away from stats, the Ducks are not only more experienced than ASU, but for all of their early success this season, they have been thoroughly challenged. Oregon’s strength of schedule is No. 6 in the country, including six wins over ranked opponents. For reference, the Sun Devils are 42nd in strength of schedule with no wins over a ranked opponent.
But the Pac-12 season is less than two weeks old, which means coach Dana Altman is doing everything in his power to keep his team from becoming complacent.
“You got to learn from wins and we’re not doing things very well. There’s so much more there. That’s the exciting thing,” Altman told the Oregonian. “That’s what I told them in the locker room, ‘Fellas I am really proud that you found a way to grind this out but you guys got to understand there’s so much more there and if you don’t put demands on yourself to get that, put demands on each other to get that, we won’t find out how good we can be.’”
In some ways, that’s ASU’s goal as well -- find out how good it can be. No one would suggest the Sun Devils have flexed all their muscles or shown their maximum potential to this point -- which is a complete reversal after two-straight years of red-hot starts.
Key Figure: 39.1%. That’s what the Ducks have shot from beyond the arc -- good for 10th in the nation. The thing that has tripped up ASU this season is fast-paced teams that can shoot the 3. We already mentioned where Saint Mary’s and Arizona fit in those categories, well the Gaels are first in the country in 3-point percentage and the Wildcats are 38th. At one point, ASU’s defense was its calling card. If it has a chance against Oregon, its defense needs to be stellar, enough to slow down the Ducks and keep them out of transition.
X-Factor: Rob Edwards. Against the Beavers, he broke his slump and nailed 6 of 10 shots from the field and four of his five attempts from deep. When he’s at his best, he’s the Sun Devils’ best shooter; and, unsurprisingly, ASU’s shooting seems to go as Edwards goes.
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 77, ASU 68
Game Info:
When: 8:30 P.M. MST
Where: Matthew Knight Arena
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Networks / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
