My 2018 Pac-12 Media Preseason Poll Ballot

The South division is as wide open as it has been since its inception in 2011, but are things relatively more clear-cut in the North? Here is the ballot I submitted for this year’s Pac-12’s media preseason poll, that will be published on July 25th.

South

1. USC – this is a Trojan offense that could struggle at times with presumably a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels, who only arrived on campus in the summer. But a talented stable of players at running back and wide receiver should still be a handful to contend with. The defense is absolutely stacked with leading tackler Cam Smith and at worst will keep USC in any contest that the offense may sputter in. I don’t see the Trojans necessarily as a playoff contender, but they should have more than enough weapons to capture the South.

2. Utah – the lone South squad that has yet to win the division will fall just short of that quest in 2018 as well. I’m not sold at all on Tyler Huntley leading this Utes squad to prosperity, and as it is the quality of returning players on offense lends you to believe that this team will live or die by their running game. Utah’s defense has undoubtedly been a handful in recent years but losing seven starters may be too much to overcome, let alone carry this team as it did on numerous occasions in the past. They will benefit some from the various issues its division rivals will be dealing with, but that won’t manifest itself into becoming a dominant force in the Pac-12.

3. Arizona - With 16 returning starters overall, headed by quarterback Kalil Tate’s 3,002 yards and 26 touchdowns (passing and rushing combined), this Wildcat offense is plenty potent. Missing Washington and Stanford on the schedule is quite the break too. On the other hand, will a new offensive scheme slow prevent Tate from repeating his impressive stats? I do question the quality of the Arizona defense nine returning starters and all since they were hardly impressive last season. Ultimately, it’s the latter group that will prevent the Wildcats from challenging USC and Utah, and Kevin Sumlin’s teams by and large haven’t been known to be defensive juggernauts anyway.

4. ASU – There’s quite a bit of firepower in the Sun Devils’ aerial attack led by fifth-year senior signal caller Manny Wilkins and in my opinion the best wide receiver duo in the conference featuring N’Keal Harry and Kyle Williams. Can a very young running back group balance the load? That will greatly affect the effectiveness of the offense this year. ASU’s defensive line and safeties group don’t have a lot of proven players to lean on, and now under a brand-new scheme may experience an even sharper learning curve. The September schedule is brutal, but if ASU can come out relatively unscathed from that stretch, they can defy the gloomy predictions that have already been put out there.

5. UCLA – first-year head coach Chip Kelly will turn around this UCLA offense, but that feat will have to wait a year or two. Whether it’s breaking in a new quarterback or dealing with a below average offensive line and running back units, Kelly will have to exercise extreme patience concerning his area of expertise. Much like Arizona, once you look at the defensive stats of 2017, a large number of returning players doesn’t exactly instill a great deal of confidence in their abilities. Even if the Bruins are able to surprise some in the first half of the year, the back half of their schedule looks pretty unforgiving and can push them down further in the division standings.

6. Colorado – going from first to last in 2016-17 firmly qualifies the Buffaloes as the South’s “one-year wonder.” And the way I see, this season doesn’t prove to be any better. True, quarterback Steven Montez is one of the more intriguing quarterbacks in this league but losing his top running back in Phillip Lindsay and his top three receivers will severely handcuff this offense. The defense may be stronger in comparison but won’t strike much fear among CU’s foes and certainly won’t get much support from the other side of the ball.

North

1. Washington – Jake Browning has never stood out to me as one the conference’s best quarterbacks during his Seattle tenure, but he just has too many weapons around him to not dominate this conference. 17 returning starters on both sides of the ball from a 10-3 team should translate into a Top-10 finish at worst, and a playoff berth this year should come as no surprise. Working with a schedule that is very manageable, skipping USC to boot, is setting up Washington for a dream season and a nightmare of an opponent for the rest of the conference.

2. Cal – every ballot should have one surprise team and I feel that the Bears can be that squad this year that will shock many. Even though they were 5-7 last year, I feel that their 18 returning starters are ready to make some serious noise this year. Their offense is more seasoned now and has nowhere to go but up, and their defense even in a losing campaign showcased enough flashes to make you believe that they are poised for a breakout. Looking at their schedule, they don’t have too many tough road games ahead and most of the November slate is set up for a late push and a strong finish.

3. Oregon – an absolute joke of a non-conference schedule with three home games (Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State) clearly won’t prepare the Ducks for the rigors of the Pac-12. Furthermore, have a first-year head coach in back to back years isn’t usually a recipe for success. The offense is carbon copy of ASU’s where you will have a potent passing game with Justin Herbert behind center, countered by a running game that is far from a sure thing. This defense and its seven returning starters could be one of the tougher units in the Pac-12, but if a one-dimensional offense struggles often is that enough to create multiple breaking points through the year? All in all, I see a somewhat better Oregon squad than last year but one that will truly make its mark only in 2019.

4. Stanford – the Cardinal are normally not known for an explosive offense and is a squad that relies heavily on a stout defense. So, while Bryce Love is the best returning running back in the Pac-12 and JJ Arcega-Whiteside is one the most underrated wide receivers in the league, having only five returners on defense suggest that Stanford won’t be able to suffocate as many offenses as it has been in the last few seasons. As steady as David Shaw’s squads have been, you figure that one of these years the Cardinal are due for a setback and I feel that this season they are due to struggle more than usual, especially with three of their last four games on the road (all five of their losses in 2017 came away from Palo Alto).

5. Washington State – speaking of taking a step back, the fans in Pullman will see a team that will be much more reminiscent of Mike Leach’s first three years than his last three. At quarterback not only do the Cougars lose a signal caller in Luke Falk who averaged 3,620 yards passing per season, but also suffered the tragic loss of Falk’s backup, Ryan Hilinski to suicide. All this happening on an offense who has lost several key players from last year. The strides WSU has made on defense can be a thing of the past as this side of the ball loses six players. Maybe if the November weather is colder than even anyone’s worst predictions, Leach’s squad could better its fortunes with three of the contests that month played at home. Nonetheless, this is a program that seemingly has more than enough obstacles in its way to finishing in the upper echelon of this division.

6. Oregon State – not much to say here. The Beavers are a good few years away from completing their rebuilding stage and proving any reason for a marked improvement in their record. 15 returning players though from last year could offer some glimmer of hope in Corvallis, maybe even produce a surprise win or two, but it won’t be enough to escape the cellar.

Pac-12 Football Champion: Washington. With their wealth of talent and facing a USC squad that is more vulnerable offensively than it has been in a while, the Huskies redeem themselves from the disappointment of 2017 and repeat its 2016 achievement.