Experts weigh in on Brandon Aiyuk’s NFL Draft stock

With its win over No. 6 Oregon on Saturday night, Arizona State burst onto the national scene. People across the country talked and tweeted ad nauseam about the Sun Devils -- and not just because their coach is Herm Edwards.

They raved about freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Frank Darby after the duo connected for a pair of deep scores. And the compliments flowed for ASU’s senior wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who over the past few months has caught the eye of NFL Draft experts and NFL evaluators alike.

Playing second-fiddle to N’Keal Harry last season, his first at the D1 level, Aiyuk adapted slowly, finishing the season with less than 500 yards receiving. He showed flashes, especially running slip screens, but it seemed being drafted at all in 2020 would be an accomplishment.

In less than a year, he changed the narrative. So far this season, Aiyuk has caught 60 passes for 1,125 yards (667 of which came after the catch) and eight touchdowns.

“I just love the way the guy, he came out of JC,” ASU coach Herm Edwards said. “Last year, probably about the sixth or seventh game, you kind of start watching him play and he got used to the speed and got used to what was going on.”

Edwards said 10 NFL scouts were at ASU’s practice last Thursday to watch Aiyuk. It was validation that the NFL world is very interested in Aiyuk’s services -- his explosiveness and dynamic ability thrusting him into the top 50 of most big boards and mock drafts.

“He’s a no-brainer, no-miss guy for your roster because he can return,” ASU offensive coordinator Rob Likens said. “He can punt return. He can kick return. (On punt and kick returns combined, Aiyuk has gained 672 yards and scored a touchdown this season). And then he’s like a really, really good receiver that runs good routes, wins one-on-one battles versus press and then he catches the ball really well.

“So he kind of has the total package. I think he’s a first-rounder.”

To gauge a better picture of what Aiyuk’s draft stock looks like, Devils Digest spoke to Dane Brugler, an NFL Draft Analyst for The Athletic, and Jordan Reid, a Senior NFL Draft Analyst for The Draft Network, about ASU’s senior receiver.

How rare is it for a prospect to be that dynamic and have his yards-after--the-catch ability after only two years of FBS football?

Brugler: “Aiyuk is what I call a runway athlete. If you give him any type of runway, he has that explosive acceleration, the top-end speed where he’s just going to be a big-play threat. He can stretch those simple slants into impact plays. And then also on special teams as a return man. You give any type of space and let him hit the after-burners, he can eliminate pursuit angles and just be a tough guy to get on the ground.

“Last year, he was in the shadows a little bit behind Harry and it took him a little bit to get adjusted to Pac-12 play. But 65 percent of his production last year came in the final four games. (Including the bowl game, it’s 62 percent -- 296 of his 474 total yards). As you watched him last year, you could see it start to click and then this year being the guy, and even with the true freshman quarterback, they developed chemistry early and when you have that type of speed and explosiveness, you have some much ability. And that’s what NFL teams are looking for.”

Reid: “Well it is really rare. But I will say, wherever he’s been, he has produced -- and that’s the good thing about Brandon Aiyuk … I think somewhere around 40 percent of his yards this year have come after the catch. (It’s actually 59 percent -- 667 of his 1,125 yards have come after the catch). That just goes to show you how explosive he is.

“The great thing about him is his after-the-catch dynamics. It’s something you can’t coach and it’s something that is really that you naturally have. You can teach guys how to run routes and what they do prior to the catch point. But with Aiyuk, whenever he touches the ball he feels as if he can take it the distance and score -- and that’s the greatest thing about him.”

How surprised were you in what he was able to do from year one to year two?

Brugler: “I think he did enough last year to where he was in the late-round discussion coming into this year. He was definitely on the radar. He was graded as a day-three prospect (rounds 4-7). He did enough to where he was on the map but seeing what he’s done this year has been a pleasant surprise because he has continued to grow as a receiver. He’s shown more maturation as a route runner. You see tempo, you see patience in his routes. It’s not just an athlete out there making plays -- this is a guy who’s adding polish to his skillset. I think he was draftable coming into the year but he’s gone from a day three pick to a day two pick to a player who is pushing to get into that day one discussion.”

Reid: “That’s kind of expected with growth, especially taking on a bigger role … (Last year), there were a lot of mouths to feed but N’Keal Harry really was the only guy who was getting fed. Aiyuk always had the talent, he’s just taking on a bigger role now.

“(This time last year), I had him as an early day three guy just because he really didn’t get to show a lot … His flashes were really good I just wanted to see more from him but now taking on that top receiver role, he’s flourished.”

Do NFL teams actually put a lot of stock into a prospect’s ability to be an effective kick/punt returner?

Brugler: “They put some. If you’re going to draft a receiver in the first round, it’s because of what he can do on offense. Kick returns are not what they used to be at the NFL level. Now punt returns obviously you can help your team and if you show that you’re reliable in that area, that you have some home-run potential, it’s only going to help you. It’s more of an add-on or something that’s the cherry on top more so than a reason why you’re going to go in the first round.”

Reid: “Oh, without question -- especially for a guy like Aiyuk. Let’s say he does come into the league and he does struggle to pick up some things at receiver, he can be explosive enough to provide some value on special teams as a kick or punt returner to help him buy some time while he’s still learning to be that wide receiver teams think he can be.”

Have you been hearing that people are grading him higher than N’Keal Harry?

CONTEXT: In his article regarding Aiyuk, an NFC West scout told Brugler: “I promise you, he’ll have higher grades than the ASU receiver last year (N’Keal Harry) from some across the league. And I’m one of them.”

Brugler: “Yeah. But I think it’s also important to point out that they’re two very different receivers who have different strengths. They offer different things. If you’re looking for the more explosive player than obviously, Aiyuk is going to be graded higher. If you’re looking for maybe the better possession guy who can use his body can especially help you in the red zone, then you’re looking more at N’Keal Harry. I think that factors in as well. They are two very different skill sets at the same position. But when you have that explosive nature, you’re probably going to have more fans in the NFL scouting community than if you don’t. The explosive, dynamic skill set is what separates him.”

Reid: “I think, for me, Aiyuk is probably going to end up being the better prospect just because I think he has more upside. Harry was more of your contested-catch, go-up-and-get-it receiver. Aiyuk, he still has some work to do as a route runner, but what he’s able to bring after the catch and then also what he provides on special teams, which is something Harry didn’t provide for the most part. (Harry) was a punt returner for a little bit but Aiyuk is returning punts and kicks as well, so he’s providing that dynamic to your special teams as well.”

For him to be an elite NFL receiver, what does he need to work on?

Brugler: “I think improving the efficiency out of his route breaks. Sometimes, he’ll tip his path to defenders. He can be a little bit cleaner with his footwork, his release off the line of scrimmage. I think just becoming more aware where the first-down marker is and just understanding situations. I think a lot of that is experienced-based, especially a guy who played both ways at the JuCo level. I think a lot of these things will come with experience. Some of the stuff -- he needs to get a little stronger, he’s not going to out-muscle defenders in tight coverage, he’s a little bit under-whelming as a perimeter blocker. There’s definitely room for him to improve before he gets to the next level.”

Reid: “I think tempo before the catch. He kind of, I don’t want to say he questions himself, but he plays a little bit slower than the explosive dynamic that we see after the catch. When he’s in his routes, I’d like to see him play with that same tempo throughout his route and once he catches the ball, to where there’s not really much explosion shown, if that makes sense. With his variance of tempos, I think that’s something he needs to work on.

“His pad level does tend to swell and what that does is once he starts to get higher and higher and roses in his route, it really tips off the cornerback to break on the ball.”

Can he make up ground with a good showing at the Senior Bowl and Combine/What does he need to show scouts there?

Brugler: “Sure, I think he can. And expectations are already going to be there. That’s why you like Brandon Aiyuk because you know the speed, the acceleration, the explosiveness -- so you’re going to go into those events expecting big numbers. And if he reaches those big numbers, it’s still going to be impressive. At the Senior Bowl, I think that’s really a chance during one-on-ones during practice.

“That’s what really vaulted (former Ohio State and current Washington Redskins’ receiver) Terry McLaurin up in last year’s draft (to becoming a third-round pick) was winning in those one-on-one situations. If he does that during Senior Bowl week, that’s something could not only cement himself as the top senior wideout but possibly get teams believing that, ‘OK, in the late first round, if some of our other options are gone, this is a guy we’re really going to consider at that point.’”

Reid: “Just prove that he can consistently separate -- and that’s not really a huge question mark with him right now -- and then the various tempos. I think teams are going to love him just because of the explosiveness factor he does bring to the table and then just something a lot of people have to remember is that this is only his second year playing FBS college football just because he was a junior college player in his first two years. The sky's the limit and (NFL teams) are going that upside he brings to the table.”

Do you think he’ll be a first-round selection?

Brugler: “I think it’s a little tough because it’s such a strong wide receiver group. To me, he’s the top senior receiver. But when you have, we’re going to have all these underclassmen coming out and it’s going to be tough. I think it’s possible. I wouldn’t say it’s probable but it’s possible. I think it’s more likely he goes somewhere in the top 50, maybe the top 40 with a chance of sneaking into that first round. And how he does at the Senior Bowl, how he does at the (NFL) Combine, that’ll also be a factor. At this point, it’s a little early to say but the chance is definitely there.”

Reid: “I have him with a strong second-round grade right now -- and that’s just going with the back-half of the year. I really like what he brings to the table.”

“You have your first tier with (Alabama’s) Jerry Jeudy, (Oklahoma’s) CeeDee Lamb, (Alabama’s) Henry Ruggs and guys of that nature. I think the postseason all-star games are going to be big for him because I think he can really crack into that second tier when you’re getting into guys like (Colorado’s) Laviska Shenault, (Clemson’s) Tee Higgins and those names. If he goes down and has a strong Senior Bowl, similar to guys like (former South Carolina and current San Francisco 49ers’ receiver) Deebo Samuel, (who was drafted 36th overall last year) and Terry McLaurin, he could be a guy who could go from being a possible day two selection to even cracking the first round, like N’Keal Harry did last year.”

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