Another week, another Air Raid offensive team visits Tempe, as ASU hosts Cal in the Pac-12 opener for both teams. Joe Healey examines the Sun Devils’ upcoming opponent and discusses the opportunities and the challenges this contest presents.
California Offense
To replace the top overall pick in the NFL Draft is a gargantuan task for any team, but thus far through three games it is tough to believe Cal could have expected much better productivity at the position to fill in for Jared Goff than what has been provided by Davis Webb.
A graduate transfer from Texas Tech, the initial thought was that Webb was going to land at Colorado before he ultimately made the final decision to spend his final collegiate season at California.
At Texas Tech, Webb had substantial success including a 403-yard, four-touchdown performance as a freshman when he guided the Red Raiders to a Holiday Bowl win over the Sun Devils.
In all, with the Red Raiders Webb threw for 5,557 yards and 46 touchdowns with 22 interceptions but was conclusively replaced by Pat Mahomes as starting quarterback heading into the 2015 season.
So far, Webb’s decision to attend the Texas Tech of California has paid off as he has guided the Golden Bears to a 2-1 record with the only loss coming to nationally ranked San Diego State while defeating a ranked Texas team last week.
After week three, Webb ranks second nationally in passing yards, coincidentally only behind Mahomes, as he has thrown for 1,359 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing about 64% of his passes. On a game-by-game breakdown, Webb threw for 441 yards with four touchdowns against Hawaii, 522 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions against San Diego State and 396 yards with four touchdowns against Hawaii. As the numbers indicate, if Webb can be baited into mistakes, the overall outcome can work against the Bears.
Different from Mahomes and the other quarterbacks ASU has faced, Webb poses no threat to run as he has accumulated -60 yards rushing – just 11 yards before sacks – on the year. Webb’s single-game career rushing high is 16 yards against West Virginia in 2013, so he should do zero damage to the Sun Devil defense with his feet.
Altogether, Webb has 13 career games with 300 or more passing yards, six of which went for more than 400 and his 522 yards against San Diego State is a career-high and his first career 500-yard passing game. For perspective, last year against ASU, Goff set the Cal single-game school record with 542 passing yards – a mark that could feasibly be in jeopardy Saturday.
As can be expected from an offense such as the Bear Raid, the run game is a much lesser priority than the pass; however, Cal does have a trio of talented backs that can be a threat when opportunities arise.
Though Cal ranks 106th nationally in rush offense (127.3), the duo of Vic Enwere (6-1, 240), Khalfani Muhammad (5-9, 170) has combined for 383 yards and three touchdowns with an excellent combined 6.1. yards-per-carry average. Muhammad is one of the better all-purpose threats in the Pac-12 Conference as he ranks fifth in the league with an average of 164.3 yards per game.
Enwere may be the recipient of social media criticism for having been the last of a few college football players last week to drop the ball near or before the goal line, but on the year his numbers compare favorably to ASU’s Kalen Ballage (other than touchdowns), as Enwere has 255 yards on 38 carries with two touchdowns while Ballage has 255 yards on 37 carries with nine scores.
Tre Watson completes Cal’s trio of talented backs and though his numbers are humble thus far in 2016 (22 carries for 68 yards), the junior had what remains his second-best career effort against ASU last year when he rushed for 92 yards on 15 carries with a touchdown.
It probably wouldn’t be a far stretch to call Cal WR Chad Hansen one of the most surprising players – if not the most surprising player – in all the FBS this season.
After Cal lost its top six receivers from 2015 to graduation and the NFL Draft, Hansen technically returned as the team’s leading receiver from last season, albeit with moderate totals of 14 catches for 249 yards and one touchdown with four receptions for a season-high 91 yards and the one score coming against ASU.
Hansen nearly matched all his 2015 season totals in the 2016 season opener alone as he hauled in 14 receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns against Hawaii. He has since proved that game to be no fluke as he caught 14 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown against San Diego State and most recently posted 12 catches for 196 yards and two scores last week against Texas.
A former transfer from FCS Idaho State, Hansen is in Michael Crabtree territory when it comes to spectacular early season results, as he is the national leader in receiving yards (546) with more than 100 yards between him and the second-place national receiver, while he also leads the FBS in receptions (40) and ties for the national lead in touchdown catches (five).
Hansen has flashed some swagger with his substance as last week he mockingly gestured a “Horns Down” hand sign after scoring a touchdown against Texas. A similar demeanor could be seen Saturday, because as introduced by Devils Digest’s Ralph Amsden, Hansen reportedly pursued ASU as a transfer destination after leaving Idaho State but the Sun Devil staff did not reciprocate the interest.
On a pace for 160 receptions and over 2,100 in the regular season, though it is still very early, Hansen could challenge the FBS record of 155 catches set by Freddie Barnes of Bowling Green in 2009 and the receiving yardage record of 2,060 set by Trevor Insley of Nevada in 1999.
Even though Hansen has received such a massive bulk of the targets, several others are involved in the passing game as six total players average about two to four receptions per game so far.
Second behind Hansen is 5-9, 190-pound true freshman Melquise Stovall (12-158-2), an early enrollee who has impressed since stepping foot on campus. Fellow true freshman Demetris Robertson (6-0, 175) also has contributed early with seven catches for 109 yards and one touchdown. Both rookies came to Berkeley with high expectations as Stovall was a four-star prospect and the No. 192 overall recruit according to Rivals for 2016, while Robertson, a one-time Alabama commit and a late signee for Cal, was a five-star prospect rated the top athlete in the country and the nation’s No. 8 overall recruit.
Both Stovall and Robertson show a tremendously high ceiling and could be in line for breakout performances against the beleaguered ASU pass defense.
Vic Wharton III (6-0, 200), a transfer from Tennessee, is third on the squad with nine receptions for 133 yards while Bug Rivera (5-8, 175), nephew of Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera, ranks fourth on the team with eight catches for 100 yards and one touchdown.
JUCO transfer Jordan Veasy (6-3, 225) has also made waves early in his Cal career as the big-bodied target leads the team in yards per catch (19.4) as he has 136 yards on seven receptions with two touchdowns.
Running backs Enwere, Muhammad and Watson all are also involved in the passing game as the trio has combined for eight catches in three games.
On the offensive line, Cal figures to start (left to right) tackle Aaron Cochran (6-8, 350), guard Chris Borrayo (6-3, 325), center Addison Ooms (6-4, 295), guard Dwayne Wallace (6-5, 330) and tackle Steven Moore (6-6, 310). Last season, Borrayo earned Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 accolades – the only returning player on the Golden Bear roster to have earned some measure of all-league honors in 2015.
California Offense Summary
ASU has the strange opportunity to face the three most prominent pass offenses in the nation in 2016, as Cal ranks second between past opponent Texas Tech and upcoming foe Washington State.
With an average of 453.0 passing yards per game, Davis Webb could flirt with a 500-yard passing game on Saturday with Hansen having the potential for a massive game on the receiving end. Cal also will not hesitate to use its other wide receivers and running backs in the passing game, and though the Golden Bears don’t typically rack up a great deal of rushing yards, the backs are explosive and capable of maximizing the carries they receive.
The Sun Devils need to find a way to interfere with Webb’s timing, ideally with consistent pressure, and ASU has to improve its tackling in order to do what it can to limit the potency of the Cal offense.
Ranking third nationally in total offense (580.3) and 10th in scoring offense (47.0), the Golden Bears pose a legitimate threat to ASU in a similar fashion that Texas Tech did even in defeat two weeks ago.
California Defense
Up front, Cal plans to start Cameron Saffle (6-3, 245) and DeVante Wilson (6-5, 260) at defensive end with James Looney (6-3, 280) and Tony Mekari (6-1, 285 at tackle).
Saffle is the leading tackler among defensive linemen both on the Cal roster and in the Pac-12 as a whole with 20 tackles, while Looney has 14 stops. Wilson ties Saffle for the team high with 2.5 tackles for loss and has a team-best 1.5 sacks as part of his 11 total tackles. Mekari has chipped in nine total tackles.
Aisea Tongilava (6-0, 225) is listed as the top SAM linebacker, with Raymond Davison (6-2, 225) at MIKE and Devante Downs (6-3, 250) at WILL.
Davison is presently in a tie for the team high and fourth in the Pac-12 in tackles (22), while Downs ranks fourth on the squad with 19 tackles. Tongilava has one tackle in one game thus far.
In the secondary, Marloshawn Franklin, Jr. (6-0, 180) and Darius Allensworth (6-0, 190) are slated to start at cornerback with Khari Vanderbilt (6-1, 195) and Evan Rambo (6-3, 205) at safety. Cameron Walker (5-10, 185) is listed as the team’s top nickel back.
Vanderbilt, the league leader in tackles among defensive backs, currently ties for the team lead and fourth in the Pac-12 in tackles (22), while Franklin has 18 tackles and two pass breakups. Rambo and Walker each have 10 total tackles and Allensworth has six tackles and two pass breakups.
Reserve defensive back and Arizona native Luke Rubenzer has 15 tackles and an interception so far in three games. Rubenzer also is tied for the Pac-12 lead with two forced fumbles.
California Defense Summary
It’s hard not to channel one’s inner Charles Barkley when describing the Cal run defense, as no Power 5 team – and only two teams nationally – has a more turrble rush defense than the 296.3 yards allowed per game than the Golden Bears.
This sort of deficiency is an eye-opener for any team, but a squad with the triple rushing threat ASU has in Ballage, Richard and Wilkins can turn this issue into a game-deciding quality.
Cal has been pretty solid against the pass, ranking 49th nationally allowing 208.0 yards per game, but the porous run defense gives teams little incentive to pass. Additionally, the Golden Bears haven’t done much in terms of pass rush with just four sacks in three games, with only one projected defensive line starter having recorded a sack thus far (DeVante Wilson, 1.5 sacks).
Altogether, Cal ranks 118th of 128 teams in total defense, allowing 504.3 yards per game, while also standing 117th in scoring defense by permitting an average of 39.7 points per game.
The Golden Bears won’t do a great deal to stand between the Sun Devils and the goal line, but ASU will need a sense of fluidity much more like it had against Texas Tech than what was shown last week versus UTSA to keep up in the probable shootout with Cal.
California Special Teams
So far, kicker Matt Anderson has proven himself to be one of this season’s most accurate kickers in the Pac-12, as he is a perfect 5-of-5 on field goals and has made all 16 PATs. He also ranks second in the league behind Zane Gonzalez with 31 points scored by kicking. Many of his attempts have been from generally short distance, as three of his five have been shorter than 30 yards, with one from 36 and one from 45.
Punter Dylan Klumph so far stands fifth in the Pac-12 in punting with a 43.8 yard average on 12 punts with a long of 64.
A very dangerous all-purpose threat, Muhammad currently ranks second in the Pac-12 in kickoff returns, averaging 27.5 yards on 13 returns. Vic Wharton III and Bug Rivera have split punt return duties with very little results, as the pair combines for just two yards – two total yards, not an average of 2.0 yards per return – on six returns.
Noah Beito handles kickoffs for the Golden Bears and has placed only six of 26 kicks for touchbacks, likely giving Tim White and Kalen Ballage opportunities for return yardage on Saturday.
Overall Summary
Though on the surface it seems like a lazy comparison, the parallels between California and Texas Tech are justified as both programs bring about a heavy duty pass game with very little on the defensive side, especially against the run.
ASU’s 68-55 victory over Texas Tech two weeks ago is a definite point of pride, but lost in the excitement of Kalen Ballage’s NCAA record-tying eight-touchdown performance is the fact that ASU needed just about every one of the 68 points scored and some near perfect efforts on special teams, elsewhere in the offense and in the turnover margins to win. As unforgettable as Ballage’s efforts were, one could argue that of comparable importance in that game was the combination of Matt Haack and the punt team consistently pinning Tech inside its own five-yard line, the Sun Devil offensive line having its best game in ages, the offense as a whole for converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and even “Gump” Hayes for doing his part on the defensive side to enable ASU to finish with a 2-0 turnover advantage.
The million dollar question looking back at the Texas Tech game and applying it to this weekend’s game is: Will ASU need to be perfect in multiple areas to offset its defense, or can the defense limit the explosive Cal offense enough not to be a liability?
Many observers are quick to dismiss Cal (at least compared to Texas Tech), using the basic thought process that since Patrick Mahomes took Davis Webb’s job in Lubbock, that Webb isn’t up to Mahomes’ snuff, making Cal a lesser opponent than Texas Tech. However, as Webb has shown in three games this season – and also showed in 2013 when he guided Texas Tech to Holiday Bowl win over ASU – he has a skill set that can present a major challenge to any opponent.
Overall, ASU has the definite tools to win this game, but depending on which version of the Sun Devils from the past two weeks shows up Saturday to Sun Devil Stadium, it also has the deficiencies to lose the game.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Run. And Run. And Run.
One of the absolute poorest run defenses in the country, Cal permits approximately 300 rush yards per game which should place Jack Nicholson “Joker” type of grins on the faces of Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard. Cal has to be very aware of the 301 yards Ballage, Richard, and Manny Wilkins accumulated against Texas Tech and the possibility that effort could be duplicated or even exceeded Saturday. By effectively running the ball, not only can ASU chop up yardage and put points on the board, but chew precious minutes off the clock and keep the dynamic Cal offense on the sidelines.
Weave a Tangled Webb
Since Webb is much less mobile than any of the three quarterbacks ASU has faced so far, pressuring him to the point of sacks or at least throwing off his timing will be huge. Though the pace and quick delivery of the Bear Raid offense may not provide ideal conditions for a multitude of sacks, Webb should attempt at the very least 55 passes (season average 55.3 attempts per game) which creates the opportunity for ASU to be disruptive.
Field Position Mastery
A key component in ASU’s win over Texas Tech was the Sun Devils’ ability to gain major field position advantages by way of an incredible series of performances by the ASU punt team and by the Devils winning the turnover battle, among other factors. In a game that defense likely will be out of style, distancing the opponent from the goal line is a heightened priority compared to lower scoring offenses.
Familiar Faces
· ASU WR Jalen Harvey was verbally committed to Cal before signing with ASU
· California safeties coach Greg Burns coached at ASU from 2008-11
· California CB A.J. Greathouse (Chandler Hamilton), S Luke Rubenzer (Scottsdale Saguaro) are both Arizona natives
· California OL Kamryn Bennett attended Peoria Centennial High School, as did ASU OL Marshal Nathe
· California CB Traevon Beck attended St. John Bosco HS, as did ASU OL Zach Robertson
· California QB Chase Forrest, TE/FB Malik McNorris, TE/FB Justin Norbeck, OL Addison Ooms and WR Matt Rockett all attended Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya
· California DE Trevor Howard attended Westlake (Calif.) Oaks Christian High School as did ASU RB Gil’Scott Jackson and LB Carlos Mendoza
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