ASU heads to USC for pivotal series that will feature a stylistic clash
When the 2023 schedule came out this past October, Arizona State was able to circle a late-season conference road series at USC as one that would be a nice cupcake on the schedule heading into the postseason. The Trojans were awful in 2022 and by every conventional indication, would be just as bad, if not worse, in 2023. A first-year head coach, a mass exodus in the portal, and a tough non-conference slate were three of the main cards stacked against this USC team.
Simply put, the Trojans put those negative expectations to rest long before this weekend’s series in Los Angeles between Arizona State and USC. Led by ASU alumnus and former GCU head coach Andy Stankiewicz, the Trojans have surged to a 28-20-1 record and are considered a tournament team by most major outlets. They’ve won six of their eight conference series, just like Arizona State has. Home series wins at historic Dedeaux Field against Stanford and UCLA have bolstered USC’s RPI and tournament resume.
Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, they get USC at Dedeaux, where visiting foes have not fared well at all. USC is a different beast on its home turf, putting up a 23-6 record. They’re a miserable 4-13-1 on the road. ASU has been solid on the road, much better than in 2022. The Sun Devils are 9-10 away from Phoenix Muni this season. But the disparity can’t be ignored on the USC side.
At the plate, USC is fueled by the trio of Austin Overn, Jonny Olmstead, and Cole Gabrielson. The Trojans play a much different brand of baseball than that of the Sun Devils. They can put up runs, but when they do, it’s often via small ball and manufacturing rather than gap-to-gap and home run power. Gabrielson leads the team with nine long balls this season; no other Trojan has more than six. As a team, USC has only belted 50 homers. For comparison’s sake, Arizona State has left the yard 79 times in as many games.
Stankiewicz has proven that his teams pitch and defend. While it’s really only been fruitful at home this year, it’s a much more sustainable winning formula than the pinball that ASU has won with for much of this season.
Overn is a nightmare at the top of the lineup. His .333 average and 67 hits (most on the team by 16) are what jumps out, but it’s the value he provides as a researcher that sets him apart. He sees pitches and lots of them. He’s walked 25 times and is frequently deep in counts with starting pitchers. His 111 total bases lead the team as well. Overm’s most jaw-dropping stat? 13 triples. 13.
Olmstead has been walked 26 times, leads the team with 12 doubles, and has homered eight times. He’s started all 49 games for the Trojans and has been identified by Stankiewicz as a vital leader in the clubhouse multiple times.
On the mound, USC runs on two horses. Blake Soderston and Tyler Stromsborg. Soderston is putting together a Pac-12 pitcher of the year caliber campaign, though he probably won’t take home the distinction unless USC pushes to the front of the standings in the next two weeks. He boasts a 3.13 ERA in 54 innings pitched, striking out 63. He and Stromsborg have walked just 20 batters each this season, a stat that makes ASU fans sick with envy.
Stromsborg has allowed 17 more runs in 10 more innings but has been just as effective of late. Another emerging arm for USC has been Caden Aoki, who has started on Sat
Both pitchers are heavily fastball reliant, which could spell trouble for them against Arizona State’s potent lineup. Ryan Campos spent last weekend getting his legs back under him after nearly a month on the shelf. He went hitless Friday night against Stanford but collected two knocks on Saturday and another on Sunday. Luke Keaschall furthered his Pac-12 Player of the Year campaign with a huge weekend against then-No. 7 Stanford. If he wants to take home the award, however, ASU will have to win each of its final two series and finish in the top two or three in the Pac-12 standings.
USC will exploit ASU’s weaknesses on the mound if all goes according to plan for them, which is a scary reality for the Sun Devils. The Trojans are disciplined at the plate. If the ASU starters can’t command the zone completely, it will be exploited. They’re also tough to strikeout; putting the ball in play and continuously forcing the defense to make plays is an identity point for USC.
The importance of this series and the final seven games as a whole cannot be overstated. As it stands now, ASU is sitting on the two-seed line, around 26th-28th in the country, just outside the rankings. A road series win at USC would bump them back into the rankings and ensure a top-three seed in Scottsdale. Hosting a regional is likely out the window unless the Sun Devils can win the USC and UCLA series AND win the Pac-12 tournament. Now it becomes about setting yourself up nicely for a desirable two-seed regional field.
As crazy as it sounds, Arizona State hasn’t won a road series in six weeks, when they took two of three from Cal in Berkeley from March 31 to April 2. A rain-induced split in Washington and losses in two of three at Oregon have kept the Sun Devils from claiming a series on the road since then. ASU will have to play clean baseball to win this series. The Sun Devils are more talented and deeper than the Trojans on paper, but that hasn’t bothered USC in their home yard all year. Willie Bloomquist said this past weekend, “You’ll have to ask me in a few weeks,” when asked whether he prefers to end the season with a gauntlet of challenging series as opposed to having them more evenly dispersed. This weekend will mark the fifth straight series ASU will face a team that is most likely going to be included in the field of 64 on selection Monday in three weeks. If the Sun Devils want to be the club they say they can be, road series wins like this one are a must.
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