Now that the offseason months are beginning to shed to weeks until the 2017 football season kicks off, the opening to fall camp and conference media days are the first true sign that the new season is close on the horizon.

As much a college football tradition as the Rose Bowl and marching bands, preseason prognostications by fans and media alike run rampant as the start to a new season makes its way into reality.

The Pac-12 Conference preseason media poll was released Tuesday, signaling the start to the league’s media day(s) events.

When a fan’s team is picked to win its division or conference, the media are hailed as geniuses. When that same fan’s squad is chosen in the divisional dumps, those same journalists are sentimentally tarred and feathered.

As we look back on the first six seasons of the Pac-12 Conference, how have the media polls panned out in terms of actual results?

The results are mixed, as there have been cases of pinpoint accuracy and also episodes of swings-and-misses.

Since 2012, the media members have never correctly predicted both participants in the conference championship game and in three of the six seasons, the media missed on both title game participants. In only two of the six years have the media members correctly chosen the conference champion (Oregon in 2011 and 2014). So, I guess, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, Washington and/or USC!

However, the media members haven’t been too terribly far off as only four of the 12 total Pac-12 Conference Championship Game participants from 2011-16 were chosen third or worse in their division in the preseason. I’m talking to you, Stanford and Utah – don’t give up hope quite yet!

Prior to the expansion to 12 teams, the media had much more accurate results as the correct champion was picked for 10 of 11 years prior to 2011. However, there was some definite predictability during those years as USC and Oregon ruled the league for most of that span.

The league media gave its most inaccurate predictions and took its largest collective “L” of the Pac-12 era as neither team chosen to play in the conference championship game finished higher than third in its respective division. Since the league expanded in 2011, Washington received the lowest preseason vote among the teams that ultimately won the conference championship while Colorado was selected last in the south and wound up meeting the Huskies for the league crown.

Also, last season Washington marked the lowest preseason pick in the Pac-12 era to ultimately become conference champion as the Huskies were chosen last summer to finish fourth overall in the league behind Stanford, UCLA, and USC.

Note: For the purpose of this entire analysis, a team’s “overall” preseason ranking is based on the number of votes received. This may lack complete accuracy as each division is voted upon separately, but it is the only measurement available regarding rankings among the entire conference as a whole.

Pac-12 Conference Champions 2011-16 (Preseason Media Ranking)

2016: Washington (fourth; second in north)

2015: Stanford (third; second in north)

2014: Oregon (first; first in north)

2013: Stanford (second; second in north)

2012: Stanford (third; second in north)

2011: Oregon (first; first in north)

Overrated and Underrated

Oh, the lovely topic of media bias.

Does it exist among the Pac-12 voters? Are there teams that are routinely voted higher than they should, or conversely are there programs that regularly fail to earn the media respect they deserve?

Also, even if bias isn’t an issue, are there programs that are just habitually overrated or underrated?

Though of course, there are years that the media is right and years it is very wrong, there is no established trend in terms of a team that has often been rated significantly higher or lower than it has proved to finish.

Up north, Oregon has “underachieved” (if you want to call it that) at a rate greater than any division foe, mainly because it was chosen to win the division all five years from 2011-15 and only did so twice. Also, scales tipped against the Ducks’ favor last season when Oregon finished dead last in the north.

Though there isn’t a great deal of variance in the south, USC technically is the team that has on average received more favorable votes than they would go on to earn. In fact, like Oregon, USC has never overachieved in terms of outperforming the media’s preseason ranking – though, on three occasions from 2011-16 USC was picked first in the south. However, to their credit the Trojans have had only one season that they finished more than one slot lower than expected – 2014, when USC was picked second and finished fourth.

In simple terms, both Oregon and USC have “suffered” from high expectations as the two combined for eight first-place preseason selections in the conference’s first six years but ultimately only made three title game appearances between them.

In the north, the program that most notably overachieved was Washington State – largely pushed by the past two seasons as the Cougars finished two spots higher than predicted in 2015 and 2016.

Colorado is the only team in the south with an average finish better than its average prediction, though that is just about completely based on the sway from its worst-to-first outcome in 2016 – the first and only such in-season turnaround in the six years of the Pac-12 – when the Buffaloes won their division after being selected sixth in the preseason by the media. Also, Colorado was picked sixth each year from 2011-16, making it statistically impossible to underachieve.

Essentially the opposite of Oregon and USC, Colorado was picked sixth in the south each year from 2011-16, so finishing anywhere above the cellar was an improvement.

The media members have collectively been spot-on with three teams – Arizona State, California, and Washington – as the average preseason rankings from 2011-16 are the same as the actual finishes. This accuracy is a result of a few years of precise predictions and a few years of the team slightly exceeding or slightly falling short of expectations.

Team-by-Team Average Predictions, Finishes, Surprises and Disappointments (2011-16)

North

Oregon

Average Prediction (preseason division ranking): 1.3

Average Finish (final division ranking): 2.3

Biggest Surprise: None

Biggest Disappointment: 2016 (picked third, finished sixth)

Stanford

Average Prediction: 1.8

Average Finish: 1.7

Biggest Surprise: 2012-13, 2015 (picked second, finished first)

Biggest Disappointment: 2016 (picked first, finished third)

Washington

Average Prediction: 3.2

Average Finish: 3.2

Biggest Surprise: 2013 (picked fourth, finished third), 2016 (picked second, finished first)

Biggest Disappointment: 2012 (picked third, finished fourth), 2015 (picked fourth, finished fifth)

California

Average Prediction: 4.7

Average Finish: 4.7

Biggest Surprise: 2014 (picked sixth, finished fourth)

Biggest Disappointment: 2012 (picked fourth, finished fifth), 2013 (picked fifth, finished sixth), 2015 (picked third, finished fourth)

Oregon State

Average Prediction: 4.8

Average Finish: 4.7

Biggest Surprise: 2012 (picked sixth, finished third)

Biggest Disappointment: 2014 (picked fourth, finished sixth)

Washington State

Average Prediction: 5.2

Average Finish: 4.5

Biggest Surprise: 2015 (picked fifth, finished third), 2016 (picked fourth, finished second)

Biggest Disappointment: 2012 (picked fifth, finished sixth)

South

USC

Average Prediction: 1.7

Average Finish: 2.3

Biggest Surprise: None

Biggest Disappointment: 2014 (picked second, finished fourth)

UCLA

Average Prediction: 2.3

Average Finish: 2.5

Biggest Surprise: 2011 (picked fifth, finished second)

Biggest Disappointment: 2016 (picked first, finished fifth)

ASU

Average Prediction: 3.2

Average Finish: 3.2

Biggest Surprise: 2012 (picked fifth, finished third)

Biggest Disappointment: 2011, 2015 (picked second, finished fourth)

Utah

Average Prediction: 3.8

Average Finish: 4.0

Biggest Surprise: 2015 (picked fifth, finished second)

Biggest Disappointment: 2012 (picked second, finished fifth)

Colorado

Average Prediction: 6.0

Average Finish: 5.0

Biggest Surprise: 2016 (picked sixth, finished first)

Biggest Disappointment: None

Largest Leaps and Drops

Now that ASU has been picked fifth in the south, what sort of precedent is in place in terms of teams greatly exceeding preseason expectations? Likewise, what teams have tanked when given high accolades in the preseason?

Naturally, the first team likely to pop in the minds of most is Colorado from last season as the Buffaloes rose from a last-place preseason prediction to the division title.

That, however, is far from the norm. Other than Colorado’s stampede up the standings last season, on only four occasions from 2011-16 has a Pac-12 team finished three or more spots higher than its preseason prediction: UCLA in 2011 (picked fifth and finished second), Oregon State in 2012 (picked sixth and finished third), Arizona in 2014 (picked fourth and finished first) and Utah in 2015 (picked fifth and finished second).

In terms of the most substantial cases of teams failing to live up to expectations, there have only been three occasions from 2011-16 that a Pac-12 team finished three or more spots poorer than selected in the preseason: Utah in 2012 (picked second, finished fifth), UCLA in 2016 (picked first, finished fifth) and Oregon in 2016 (picked third, finished sixth)

Year-by-Year Favorites, Results, Surprises and Underachievers (2011-16)

2016

Preseason Picks: Stanford (finished third in the north) over UCLA (finished fifth in the south)

Actual Championship Game: Washington (picked second in north) over Colorado (picked sixth in the south)

Surprise Team: Colorado

The most surprising team in college football last season, Colorado was picked last in the Pac-12 south and 11th overall in the league but ended up winning the south division. The Buffaloes finished 10-4 with a No. 17 final Associated Press poll ranking, the team’s first end of season national ranking since 2002 and its highest since 2001.

Underachiever: UCLA

Picked to win the south in the preseason, UCLA fell all the way to fifth ahead of only Arizona largely because of the midseason injury loss of quarterback Jake Rosen.

2015

Preseason Picks: USC (finished first in the south) over Oregon (finished second in the north)

Actual Championship Game: Stanford over USC

Surprise Teams: Washington State and Utah

Washington State was picked fifth in the north division and 10th overall but finished with a 9-4 record, while Utah was chosen fifth in the south division and ninth overall but finished with a 10-3 and a tie for first in the division (though USC represented the south in the Pac-12 Conference Championship Game).

Underachiever: Arizona State

One of the nation’s most disappointing teams in 2015, the Sun Devil team that was picked by some prognosticators as a dark horse College Football Playoff team ended up with a 6-7 record. In terms of division and conference standing, ASU was the only Pac-12 program to finish two spots poorer than predicted as the Sun Devils were picked second in the preseason and finished fourth.

2014

Preseason Picks: Oregon (finished first in the north) over UCLA (finished second in the south)

Actual Championship Game: Oregon over Arizona

Surprise Teams: Arizona and Utah

The Wildcats were picked fourth in the division and eighth in the league but claimed the south division title and finished 10-4 and No. 10 in the final College Football Playoff rankings.

Utah was chosen fifth in the south division and 10th in the league as a whole but ended the year with a 9-4 record. Though the Utes still finished fifth in the south, they placed sixth in the conference as a whole as the division saw unbelievable parity that year with five teams to win either nine or 10 games.

Underachiever: USC

Picked second in the Pac-12 south in the preseason, the Trojans ultimately finished fourth by getting the short end of a three-way tie with ASU and UCLA as USC lost to both teams.

2013

Preseason Picks: Oregon (finished second in the north) over UCLA (finished second on the south)

Actual Championship Game: Stanford over Arizona State

Surprise Team: Washington

The media was fairly accurate with its predictions in 2013, as no team finished with noticeably different results than predicted in the preseason. Washington was chosen seventh in the conference in the preseason and finished with a 9-4 record, sixth-best in a very strong Pac-12 that had five teams with 10 or 11 wins in 2013.

Underachiever: No team truly qualifies for this category as no program finished more than one spot worse than predicted in the preseason.

2012

Preseason Picks: USC (finished second in the south) over Oregon (finished second in the north)

Actual Championship Game: Stanford over UCLA

Surprise Team: Oregon State

The Beavers were chosen to finish dead last in the Pac-12 north and 11th in the league behind Colorado but finished with a 9-4 record and were ranked 13th in the final BCS standings.

Underachiever: Utah

Picked second in the Pac-12 south in the preseason, the Utes dropped to fifth in the division at the end of the season with a 5-7 final record.

2011

Preseason Picks: Oregon (finished first in the north) over Arizona State (finished third in the south)

Actual Championship Game: Oregon over UCLA

Surprise Team: UCLA

Picked fifth in the south division and 11th overall, despite a .500 regular season record the Bruins finished as the Pac-12 south champion as USC was ineligible for postseason play. UCLA would go on to lose the inaugural Pac-12 Conference Championship Game and its bowl game and end with a 6-8 overall record.

Underachiever: Like 2013, on a divisional level there wasn’t a single team to finish more than one spot worse than predicted in the preseason.

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